ARG POLL: Kerry and Bush Remain Tied (Bush 47% Kerry 47% Nader 3%) Bush JA @ 45%

americanresearchgroup ^ | 09/02/04 | americanresearchgroup

[comebacknewt]

KQQL:

Did you ever explain why you revised the amount of the vote W would get above his approval rating down from 1.5% to 0.5%? If you did, I missed it, and I have been curious.

Thanks.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Nader's votes are not all coming from Kerry. At least 1/3 come from Bush. In some polls it is 50/50.

[Salvation]

I wonder if this poll is biased.

[Paleo Conservative]

ARG POLL

Argh!

[KQQL]

It's better than ECONOMIST poll..

[Lurking2Long]

Hmmmmmmm....that's a-some a-spicy TROLL sauce you got there KQCL!

[kpp_kpp]

regardless of how well bush is really doing, i hope the media keeps the people convinced it is a deadheat all the way to nov 2. that is the only way to get some on the right (and far right) out to vote.

many conservatives won't bother voting if they think it is a done deal already (shame on them) -- especialy ones that have to hold their noses when they vote due to the fiscal liberalism, big government, federalized education, etc. policies of bush.

[John Lenin]

THE TIMES POLL
Bustamante Has Big Lead on Schwarzenegger

August 24, 2003

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante holds a wide lead over Arnold Schwarzenegger in the race to succeed Gov. Gray Davis, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll, which finds the Republican vote splintered among several GOP contenders.

As the sole major Democrat running to replace Davis — should the incumbent be ousted Oct. 7 — Bustamante enjoys the support of 35% of likely voters, the poll found.

Schwarzenegger received the support of 22%, followed by three fellow Republicans: state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks with 12%, businessman Peter V. Ueberroth with 7% and Bill Simon Jr. — the GOP's 2002 gubernatorial nominee — with 6%.



We know how this one turned out, don't we ?

[AmishDude]

It's all about the trends. Beware Rass, though. Could be an outlier.

[ambrose]

do you include Economist in those numbers?

[adam_az]

RealClearPolitics Poll Averages:

3-Way: Bush 46.1, Kerry 45.6, Nader 3.1
Head-to-Head: Bush 47.5, Kerry 46.9
Bush JA: 50.1 Approve/46.5 Disapprove

---

ARG: Bush 47, Kerry 47, Nader 3
Rasmussen (9/2): Bush 49, Kerry 45

[italianquaker]

Where was this poll conducted France Tell them Stop already
w2004
ciao

Spitball Kerry Priceless

[DrDeb]

. . . excellent trendlines from these two VERY left-leaning pollsters [left-leaning pollsters: pollsters who either design or 'weight' their polls to benefit Democrats].

FYI: real clear politics puts the President's job approval average ABOVE the critical 50% benchmark!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

FYI2: Rasmussen's tracking poll puts the President's job approval rating at 54/46 and his match-up advantage at 49/45!!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com

[VRWC_minion]

President George W. Bush - Job Approval Ratings
Poll	Date	Approve	Disapprove	Spread
RCP Average	8/21 - 9/1	50.1%	46.5%	+3.6%
Rasmussen	8/30 - 9/1	54%	46%	+8%
American Research Group	8/30 - 9/1	45%	48%	-3%
ABC News/Wash Post	8/26 - 8/29	50%	47%	+3%
Annenberg	8/9 - 8/29	53%	46%	+7%
Time/SRBI	8/24 - 8/26	51%	45%	+6%
FOX News/Opin. Dyn.	8/24 - 8/25	51%	43%	+8%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup	8/23 - 8/25	49%	47%	+2%
NBC News/WSJ	8/23 - 8/25	47%	48%	-1%
NPR - POS/GQR	8/21 - 8/24	49%	48%	+1%
Los Angeles Times	8/21 - 8/24	52%	47%	+5%
Click Here to See All Job Approval Poll Data

[LS]

Here is all we need to know:

Likely voters (B) 48% (K) 47% (U)5%

ARG is heavily weighted to the Dems (2-3%).

Ipso fatso, Francois is toast.

[virgil]

I think Bush is probably doing a lot better in the polls than the media wants to show. They want the polls to show even numbers because they want to keep up the suspense and draw in more viewers. I think the media are the ones who are the most divisive and they should stop blaming it all on FNC. They're all in a horse race for ratings and circulation. All of them. And when they cozy up with nutcases like Michael Moore they do nothing to help their credibility.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

JA 45%? What a crock. Bush's JA over the last 10 polls is over 50.5% at RCP. ARG is a useless pollster.

[POA2]

ARG had Gore winning by double digits in Louisiana, Tennessee and Kentucky in 2000.

Josh - in those polls how did ARG's weightings look? - I usually agree that ARG polls are biased....However, their weightings here look fine (37-35-28) - (in fact that is a little biased toward our side)...

[Josh in PA]

Don't know, I don't have the internals of those polls just the raw numbers..


They are clearly a Democratic Push Poll.

[POA2]

Here is all we need to know: Likely voters (B) 48% (K) 47% (U)5% ARG is heavily weighted to the Dems (2-3%).

LS - while ARG has a history of being more biased....You have to back up your claims with specifics -

When you look at the facts of this poll....the weightings show NO bias - 37D-35R-28I - (in fact the Dem's nationally have a 4pt edge) -