Eleven Public Opinion Insights on the Election [Gallup]

The Gallup organization ^ | 9/2/04 | Frank Newport

[Paul_B]

PRINCETON, NJ -- The Republican National Convention in New York ends Thursday with President George W. Bush's acceptance speech, after which the presidential campaign will kick into a new level during the last two months before Election Day. Here is a review of a number of key points about the election gleaned from recent Gallup Poll analyses of the people's views and perspectives.

1. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are holding tough in their core states.

Looking at the average of likely voter preferences in the two-way race across the two latest Gallup Polls, Bush has a 20-point lead over Kerry in the "red" states, or those that Bush won by more than five points in 2000. Kerry has a 16-point lead over Bush in the "blue" states, those that Al Gore won by more than five points in 2000.

2. On the other hand, the race in key showdown states remains remarkably close.

The two major-party candidates are within one point of each other among likely voters (48% for Bush and 47% for Kerry) when the results of Gallup's trial heat ballots in the 16 states -- typically referred to as battleground or showdown states -- are averaged across the last two polls. (Gallup's showdown states are those in which neither candidate won by more than five points in 2000.)

Additionally, Gallup conducted August polls in five key showdown states -- Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa -- and the average margin between the two candidates across these states (among likely voters) is two points. ...

[Paul_B]

Article goes on to touch on moderate Republicans, Edwards' and Cheney's popularity, the war in Iraq, the economy, and Nadar.

[mrsmith]

"...Moderate Republicans (that is, Republicans who describe their political views as "moderate" or "liberal") "

GIGO

[RWR8189]

Gallup Ping

FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.

[DannyTN]

I haven't seen any polls lately. Should the networks be constantly bombarding us with polls about now?

[RWR8189]

Look for a slew of polls early next week.

[mrsmith]

Beats me, it does seem quiet, someone even started a thread on it:

Where are all the overnight polls?! Posted on 09/02/2004 4:42:08 PM EDT by Gunder