Posted on 09/02/2004 4:00:51 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
NEW YORK - John Kerry's $50 million post-Labor Day advertising effort will start in seven states before expanding to an additional 13, creating a coast-to-coast presidential battleground map by Nov. 2.
The Democrat's commercials begin airing Friday in Ohio, then next week in Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, according to Democratic officials familiar with the buy.
In an unusual strategy, the campaign was reserving airtime over the entire two-month period until the election. The rest of the states — Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Maine, Michigan, Arizona, Louisiana, Colorado, Arkansas and North Carolina and West Virginia — won't see the spots until later this fall.
Ads will air on local network affiliates, cable TV and broadcast outlets targeting minorities.
President Bush, in New York for his nominating convention, was placing his first fall ad order this week, with ads slated to begin airing Tuesday. Unlike Kerry's lengthy purchase, Bush's buy is expected cover one or two weeks at a time.
Kerry's $50 million down payment is more than half of the roughly $90 million that the Democrat has at his disposal between now and Election Day. Officials said the campaign also has budgeted an undisclosed amount of money to pour into key states later in the fall.
There are no surprises among the 20 states that Kerry has effectively identified as his battlegrounds. The remaining 30 states plus the District of Columbia are either safely Republican or Democratic, aides said, with the possible exception of Virginia.
Previewing his fall strategy with a two-month buy is unusual and risky: Bush's campaign now knows Kerry's Electoral College strategy. But buying airtime now means that Kerry can lock in current advertising rates, which rise sharply in the fall as demand for airtime soars. He can always cancel ads later in states he feels he cannot win and redeploy those dollars to others he believes he can.
Of Kerry's top seven states, four were narrowly won by Democrat Al Gore in 2000: Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. Three other states were barely won by Bush, including Florida, where he escaped with a 537-vote margin.
To reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, Kerry needs to reclaim each of the states won by Gore plus pick up 10 electoral votes. His biggest targets are economically ailing Ohio (20 votes) and Florida (27 votes), where the Democratic-leaning population is growing. Bush also won New Hampshire and its four electoral votes.
Of the 13 states slated for ads in later waves, Nevada and West Virginia, with a combined 10 electoral votes, are considered to be Kerry's best opportunities to claim a state won by Bush four years ago.
Nevada has a growing Hispanic population, and many voters fault Bush for his support of a nuclear waste site in the state. West Virginia is filled with cultural conservatives courted by the GOP, but a tough economy and the Iraq war could help Kerry. It begins seeing ads Sept. 21.
Officials said the fall commercials will focus on local media markets with the heaviest numbers of undecided, independent or persuadable votes. Eventually, they may begin airing in heavily Republican or Democratic areas as Kerry searches for the stray swing voter, aides said.
In Virginia, Kerry has spent $2.5 million to try to make the state competitive, but it didn't make the list.
Nonsense. Susan Estrich(batting wide eyes and smiling ear to ear), said on Fox last night that 'mischief makers were running around planting rumors that Kerry's campaign was in trouble. Why nothing could be farther from the truth, you'll be delighted to hear...this from the horse's mouth. They're not firing anybody...no, TerAYsa moneybags Heinz/Kerry will continue to pay salaries of those demoted to envelope stuffing duties.(This is to keep them from blabbing how bad things are in Kerryland).
The new honchos just coming on board, according to Susan E., are merely to 'beef up' the campaign staff, a measure everybody's taken in the past. Nothing to see here, folks. Move right along. That glugging sound is TerAYsa downing her vitamins and age-fighting pills. She's nine, count them, nine years older than Botoxboy, but you'd never know. She looks so young, thanks to massive botox, hair dye, and (probably), Swiss sheep injections.
I saw one MoveOn.org ad on Fox last night: same-old-same- old "I lost my job and it's all George Bush's fault." Looks like they're going for the whiney unemployed "I refuse to relocate to find a new job" vote. The left has nothing positive to say. All they do is criticize,lie, and whine.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.