Posted on 09/02/2004 4:00:51 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
NEW YORK - John Kerry's $50 million post-Labor Day advertising effort will start in seven states before expanding to an additional 13, creating a coast-to-coast presidential battleground map by Nov. 2.
The Democrat's commercials begin airing Friday in Ohio, then next week in Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, according to Democratic officials familiar with the buy.
In an unusual strategy, the campaign was reserving airtime over the entire two-month period until the election. The rest of the states Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Maine, Michigan, Arizona, Louisiana, Colorado, Arkansas and North Carolina and West Virginia won't see the spots until later this fall.
Ads will air on local network affiliates, cable TV and broadcast outlets targeting minorities.
President Bush, in New York for his nominating convention, was placing his first fall ad order this week, with ads slated to begin airing Tuesday. Unlike Kerry's lengthy purchase, Bush's buy is expected cover one or two weeks at a time.
Kerry's $50 million down payment is more than half of the roughly $90 million that the Democrat has at his disposal between now and Election Day. Officials said the campaign also has budgeted an undisclosed amount of money to pour into key states later in the fall.
There are no surprises among the 20 states that Kerry has effectively identified as his battlegrounds. The remaining 30 states plus the District of Columbia are either safely Republican or Democratic, aides said, with the possible exception of Virginia.
Previewing his fall strategy with a two-month buy is unusual and risky: Bush's campaign now knows Kerry's Electoral College strategy. But buying airtime now means that Kerry can lock in current advertising rates, which rise sharply in the fall as demand for airtime soars. He can always cancel ads later in states he feels he cannot win and redeploy those dollars to others he believes he can.
Of Kerry's top seven states, four were narrowly won by Democrat Al Gore in 2000: Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. Three other states were barely won by Bush, including Florida, where he escaped with a 537-vote margin.
To reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, Kerry needs to reclaim each of the states won by Gore plus pick up 10 electoral votes. His biggest targets are economically ailing Ohio (20 votes) and Florida (27 votes), where the Democratic-leaning population is growing. Bush also won New Hampshire and its four electoral votes.
Of the 13 states slated for ads in later waves, Nevada and West Virginia, with a combined 10 electoral votes, are considered to be Kerry's best opportunities to claim a state won by Bush four years ago.
Nevada has a growing Hispanic population, and many voters fault Bush for his support of a nuclear waste site in the state. West Virginia is filled with cultural conservatives courted by the GOP, but a tough economy and the Iraq war could help Kerry. It begins seeing ads Sept. 21.
Officials said the fall commercials will focus on local media markets with the heaviest numbers of undecided, independent or persuadable votes. Eventually, they may begin airing in heavily Republican or Democratic areas as Kerry searches for the stray swing voter, aides said.
In Virginia, Kerry has spent $2.5 million to try to make the state competitive, but it didn't make the list.
You just made me think of something.
All the outlanders moving up here from DC will see them too.
Good plan, Swiftees....:)
Something tells me this will be about as effective as a blitz put on by the Chargers.
My whole state needs to be forced to watch the ads.
We have too many clueless transplanted libs running off at the mouth, already.
Zell Miller made sure of that last night when he framed the issue perfectly.
It's about the future of our world!!!
Country before party!
Explain to me how these two pampered brats, one just receiving a full scholarship to attend university in London, can relate to the lives of students at a black college, or any college other than the Ivies.
Corzine has actually offered a bill to remove parts of the Patriot Act.
Dear God, I hope you're right.
I am sick of the shame of seeing MD "go blue" every election...:-\
The problem he will have is that in these ads he does not discuss specifics of his plans. A good number of people may not like Bush, but they do want to know what they are gettting.
I haven't a clue. But, this may be indicative: I've been up since 4:00 a.m. since seeing one of these "elites" off this morning.
According to him, I live in a hovel. So kind, especially since I am good enough to give him a place to crash for the night.
(He's off to join his Palm Springs friends today. Apparently they believe that keeping "good" thoughts in their heads will turn the hurricane out to sea. Typical liberal head-stuck-in-their-you-know-where.)
I kid you not!
Sorry, that was Palm Beach, not Palm Springs.
4:00 a.m., indeed!
I often remark that of course, I'm a republican, I love America. Then I just smile and say no more.
Oh, but I have a secret weapon in my arsenal.
I served fried turnips and collards without seasoning, and fried, canned salmon cakes for dinner the night he arrived.
(We ate before he came: lasagna.)
The DNC has a lot more money to spend when you look at the 527s.
It's stunning to me that they even considered spending money in Virginia. I can't imagine what the Kerry campaign was thinking - or better yet wasn't thinking. Maybe it was due to Warner (d gov) convincing the DNC, but the only reason he won is because the Republican Party ate itself at the top levels (like it tends to do every once in a while). Both Senators are Republican (okay even though its the other Warner), the Commonwealth House and Senate have Republican majorities, and the current Republican AG will probably be the next gov.
But this $2.5 million effort by the Kerry campaign also shows something else, an error by the major polling entities. For several months the pollers have suggested that Virginia was possibly going Kerry or that it was a toss up. They had to be looking at tea leaves and the money Kerry was spending, not at good numbers. This is a Republican state will vote to reelect President Bush - and that didn't just happen.
This could turn out to be a mistake of epic proportions. Kerry is basically rolling the dice on what the electoral landscape is going to look like a month from now. If the tides shift, and opportunities present themselves to him in unpredictable places, or if threats appear that he had not anticipated, he's going to find himself wasting money that would have been better spent elsewhere.
He's basically just locked in his campaign strategy for the next two months. And we want this guy commanding our armed forces????
"The DNC has a lot more money to spend when you look at the 527s."
The DNC is locking in the ads in the event they have to change the candidate so it becomes one less thing for them to worry about.
If there is a problem and they do not have the spots and a new candidate comes into the race, providing there is a court challenge, that candidate will not be given air time. This guarantees the spots.
This is the first in a series of moves that will enable the DNC to easily swap out candidates.
Watch the fun begin. Remember, Hillary's petitions have already filed for the Presidency in all 50 states. This has fallen under the radar.
Ready, I'm going to blitz you. Frightened?
/sarcasm off
I work here on the base, and I had no idea they were over at Norfolk State (I assume from your description they were there). Shows how much attention they are getting, I guess. Figures they wouldn't go near ODU.
Thanks for the warning.
What, not in Texas?!?
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