BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 01 2004
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR THE BAHAMAS...WINDS
INCREASING AT GRAND TURK...
AT 11 AM...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES...
CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES
THE ABACOS...ANDROS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND
BAHAMA AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA
AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND 735 MILES...1180 KM...EAST
-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THE GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FRANCES IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. WHILE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FRANCES COULD STILL
INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE BEFORE REACHING THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. GRAND TURK REPORTED WINDS OF 36 MPH...57
KM/HR EARLIER TODAY.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE
EARLIER TODAY WAS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY.
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...AND SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...21.7 N... 69.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB
A FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER
TODAY. FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON
SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY SHIPS
MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY...
FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
14 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE
HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY
REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.7N 69.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.6N 71.8W 125 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W 130 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 26.0N 77.5W 130 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 80.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 29.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/1200Z 31.6N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND