HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB
A FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER
TODAY. FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON
SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY SHIPS
MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY...
FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
14 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE
HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY
REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.7N 69.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.6N 71.8W 125 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W 130 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 26.0N 77.5W 130 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 80.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 29.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/1200Z 31.6N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SAT SEP 4 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
24.0N 74.0W 47 X X X 47 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 3 13 16
25.0N 76.0W 15 18 X X 33 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 13 13
26.0N 77.5W X 22 3 1 26 SAVANNAH GA X X X 9 9
MUCM 214N 779W X 2 1 1 4 CHARLESTON SC X X X 7 7
MUCF 221N 805W X X 2 3 5 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 5 5
MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 4 5 WILMINGTON NC X X X 3 3
MBJT 215N 712W 48 X X X 48 KEY WEST FL X X 4 7 11
MYMM 224N 730W 48 X X X 48 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 6 9 15
MYSM 241N 745W 43 X X X 43 FT MYERS FL X X 5 10 15
MYEG 235N 758W 24 5 X X 29 VENICE FL X X 2 12 14
MYAK 241N 776W 2 19 1 1 23 TAMPA FL X X 2 12 14
MYNN 251N 775W 1 23 2 X 26 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 12 12
MYGF 266N 787W X 8 12 3 23 ST MARKS FL X X X 8 8
MARATHON FL X 1 7 5 13 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 6 6
MIAMI FL X 2 11 5 18 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 5 5
W PALM BEACH FL X 1 13 6 20 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2
FT PIERCE FL X X 11 8 19 GULF 29N 85W X X X 7 7
COCOA BEACH FL X X 8 10 18 GULF 29N 87W X X X 2 2