The new Totalization treaty with Mexico, per Post #3 on this thread, will impact 47,000 legal Mexican's in the U.S. and 3,000 legal Americans working in Mexico, for an additional 50,000 people. That's where the 50,000 number originates.Your post #3 is a press release which came from the SSA itself. The GAO report which analyzes the agreement describes the problems with the SSA conclusions.
In the GAO report, the SSA number of 50,000 being bandied about does not include the millions of illegal aliens already here who have become eligible under the terms of the agreement.
I quote:
"Finally, the cost of a totalization agreement with Mexico is highly uncertain. SSA’s actuarial estimate states that the cost of a Mexican agreement would be $78 million in the first year and would grow to $650 million by 2050. The estimate assumes the initial number of newly eligible Mexican beneficiaries is equivalent to the 50,000 beneficiaries living in Mexico today and would grow sixfold over time. However, this proxy figure does not directly consider the estimated millions of current and former unauthorized workers and family members from Mexico and appears small in comparison with those estimates. Although the actuarial estimate indicates that the agreement would not generate a measurable impact on the trust funds, an increase of more than 25 percent in the estimate of initial, new beneficiaries would generate a measurable impact. For prior agreements, error rates associated with estimating the expected number of new beneficiaries have frequently exceeded 25 percent. Because of the significant number of unauthorized Mexican workers in the United States, the estimated cost of the proposed totalization agreement is even more uncertain than for the prior agreements."
"However, this proxy figure does not directly consider the estimated millions of current and former unauthorized workers and family members from Mexico and appears small in comparison with those estimates."
For argument's sake, lets just pretend that you are absolutely correct above. If so, the easy way to handle cutting off all illegal immigration (that's economically driven, at least), is to say that any illegal alien who applies for SS has to identify his current and former employers in the U.S.
Followed by having both the IRS and SSA immediately investigate said employer for failure to withhold and pay income and social security taxes; including holding said emplyers financially responsible.
In effect, every illegal applicant for SS benefits would become a snitch, by default, against their illegal employers. It would strike fear into such employers. That fear of employing illegals and then getting held responsible for back taxes would frighten away the vast majority of future potential employers, too. It would make NannyGate pale in comparison.
In other words, if what you are saying is true, then we've just scored an enormous victory against illegal immigration by using SS benefits as a lure and as a bribe to get snitches to rat out illegal employers.
5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires