Posted on 08/30/2004 2:48:36 PM PDT by kkindt
According to Center for Disease Control statistics, there were approximately 12,785,800 legal abortions between 1973 and 1982. If they had been born, the vast majority of these children would survive today and be eligible to vote. These voters would disproportionately have been members of Democratic-leaning constituencies. Roughly one-fifth of them (about 2,725,000) were non-white – the vast majority of these African-Americans. If they had voted at the same rate as other young non-white voters (about 40%) and following the same patterns as the rest of the nation, these voters would have contributed about 1,928,000 votes for Bush and 2,375,000 votes for Gore – a differential of 447,000 ballots for Gore.
Some of these votes may have swung a few close states Gore’s way, but let us look at the closest state: Florida. The Florida Department of Vital Statistics reports 406,560 Florida abortions from 1973 to 1982. Florida does not list abortion statistics by race, but if we assume abortion rates similar to the national CDC estimates, then the African-American abortion rate was about twice the white abortion rate. This means that African-Americans, with 13% of Florida’s population in the 1970’s, constituted about one-fourth (or 101,640) of the abortions. Hispanics, with about 11% of the population would constitute about 22% (89,443) of Florida abortions with whites the remainder (215,477).
Among young Florida whites and African-Americans, turnout in the 2000 election was about 50%. The turnout of young Florida Hispanics in 2000 was about 35%. Applying these rates in Florida yields 107,738 white, 31,305 Hispanic, and 50,820 African-American aborted voters. According to the Voter News Service exit poll, Bush took 57% of the white vote in Florida while Gore took 40%. Florida Hispanics were evenly split while 93% of Florida African-Americans voted for Gore as opposed to 7% for Bush. If the aborted voters had followed this pattern (a conservative assumption since Florida voters in the 18-29 age bracket actually voted 55% for Gore), there would have been about 106,010 more votes for Gore vs. 80,620 for Bush. This net of 25,390 aborted Gore votes would easily have swamped Bush’s actual margin of 537 and given Gore the election. Al Gore is not the president today because those voters simply never got to be.
The Bush presidency is, thus, an artifact of the reduction of African-American voting strength caused by abortion. African-Americans abort at rates grossly disproportionate to their numbers. The 2,725,000 African-Americans aborted between 1973 and 1982 equals almost 8% of the 2000 African-American population. On the other hand, the 8,782,000 whites aborted over the same period equals less than 5% of the 2000 white population. Thus, abortion erodes the African-American vote at least 60% more than the white vote.
This abortion deficit has effects on congressional representation, as well. African-Americans made up about 12.5% of the population in 2000. However, in the absence of 40 million legal abortions (10 million of them African-American), African-Americans would comprise about 14% of the population. Assuming congressional representation by race strictly proportional to population, African-Americans would be “due” at least six more congressmen (1.5% of 435). The aborted vote creates a significant erosion of the African-American presence in Congress.
For Georgia, the aborted voter effect on the 2000 election was smaller than in Florida. There were some 235,930 Georgia abortions between 1973 and 1982. The Georgia Department of Human Resources does compile abortion statistics by race. More than one-third (89,958) of these abortions were of African-Americans and about 145,972 were white. Assuming a 40% turnout rate, we calculate about 58,389 white aborted Georgia voters and 35,983 African-American aborted Georgia voters. According to the Voter New Service, Georgia whites voted about 71% for Bush and 26% for Gore, while Georgia African-Americans voted 92% for Gore and 8% Bush. Applying these ratios to the aborted vote yields about 48,285 Gore voters and 44,335 Bush voters: a differential of only 3950 for Gore. Since the white vote swung so heavily for Bush, the larger numbers of white aborted voters almost cancel out the loss of nearly unanimous African-American Gore voters.
The future however, shows a much heavier “abortion deficit” for Georgia Democrats. Although the abortion rate has fallen overall, it has risen substantially for African-Americans. In the 1990’s, close to half of all Georgia abortions were of African-Americans as opposed to only about one-third in the 1970’s. For example, if the 36,712 (17,563 African-American, 19,149 white) babies aborted in 1991 had not been aborted, and, once eligible, were to vote in the same ratios as voters did in the 2000 election, they would yield a net of some 2,454 additional Democratic ballots. Democrats will sorely miss these voters six years from now, when they would first be eligible. And they represent just the price exacted from the party for a single year’s abortions. What is more, as the cohorts born in the 1970’s and 1980’s age, their voter participation rates will increase (in the 2000 election, turnout for voters over 25 was about 70%). This will substantially increase the Democratic abortion deficit for those voters.
My analysis of the 2000 election is based strictly on racial breakdown and, as such, probably understates the damage that abortion does to the Democrats. Ignored, in particular, are economic factors. According to the Alan Guttmacher Institute, poor women account for most abortions. These aborted babies, had they not been aborted, would mostly remain low-income as young adults. Lower-income voters of all races tend to be Democrats. In the 2000 election, 57% of all voters with annual income less than $15,000 voted for Gore with 37% voting for Bush. 54% of voters with income between $15,000 and $30,000 voted for Gore and 41% for Bush. Thus much of the white aborted vote assigned by this analysis to Bush should probably belong to Gore.
As the abortion effect accumulates over the next few election cycles, it will become a major problem for Georgia Democrats – all the more so because so much effort is made to target abortion services and subsidies to low-income and minority communities. Paradoxically, Georgia’s elected Democrats, especially those representing urban, African-American districts, support these programs that explicitly erode their very own base. In so doing, Georgia Democrats are aborting their own future constituencies – they are, literally, cutting their own throats.
Interesting...that's all I can say.
To anyone towing the DemonRat line, they never were children. They were nothing more than inconveniences.
These voters would disproportionately have been members of Democratic-leaning constituencies.
I thought the theory was that kids were rebelling against their liberal parents and become conservatives.
"Be not deceived. God is not mocked. Whatever a man sows, that he will reap." Galatians 6:7
Interesting, but I'm not going to rejoice over this in any way.
40 million abortions since 1973. This is so incredibly sad and wrong, it makes me sick to my stomach.
Bttt
And blacks still think white liberals are their "friends"
I don't care how many of their own children the Democrats choose to kill!
But ... I do care.
Its not very kind, but juxtaposing our abortion policy with our immigration policy, I see it as Democrats committing suicide, and replacing themselves with Mexicans.
I think its a good bargain. Over the long run we'll get a better class of Democrat.
If abortion has indeed adversely effected the democrats then I guess it's a silver lining in an otherwise very dark cloud.
Democrats aborted the 2000 election win. Hilarious and sick at the same time.
An interesting idea, but the "Center for Disease Conteol" source seems to be bogus.
I'd say that this is the ONLY good thing that abortion has given this nation.
This is amazing because this is something that hit me earlier today. The Democrats have aborted themselves out of power. Truly, the wages of sin is death.
What about this:
I support your right to abort Democrats.
Good article. One doubtful stat is that the hispanic abortion rate is double that of the whites. It is likely less than either white or black I would presume.
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