Posted on 08/29/2004 12:22:07 PM PDT by Mike Fieschko
August 29, 2004--On the eve of the Republican National Convention, for the first time all year, George W. Bush moved ahead of John Kerry in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projection. Neither man, however, can yet count on the 270 Electoral Votes needed for victory in November.
The latest numbers show Bush leading in states with 213 Electoral Votes while Kerry is ahead in states with 207. There are 118 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up column.
Over this past weekend, Arkansas, Virginia and Missouri moved from Toss-Up to Leans Bush.
Minnesota moved from Leans Kerry to Toss-Up.
Maine and Michigan moved in Kerry's direction--from Toss-Up to Leans Kerry.
This latest projection is based upon a series of new state election polls from Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio. Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin
At Rasmussen Reports, we consider any state where polls show a candidate leading by less than five percentage points to be a toss-up. Feel free to review our state-by-state listing and share your comments.
Beginning September 1, Rasmussen Reports will expand our Tracking Poll to 1,000 Likely Voters per night. At the same time, we will increase the flow of information provided both on the public site and for our Premium Members.
Premium Service during the final two months of the campaign will include daily tracking for Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania along with weekly updates for 15 states. We will also provide frequent updates for many other states and key Senate races. Details on the Premium Member enhancements will be released this weekend.
State data will be provided for the public site on a regular, but less frequent, basis.
With so many "toss-ups" one has to wonder: "What value does this polling firm provide their clients? Cripes, what do they charge for the "we don't know" answer?
These polls are worthless. The least they could do is go out on a limb and say "At this time, it looks like X." Throw all the caveats and MOE numbers in for good number. Indicate that things can change, etc. But reporting "we don't have a clue" when the 100 plus "toss-up" electoral votes may all be 5% one way or the other is boring and stupid.
Figuring out which states to pour resources into.
They say Bush is winning with a small lead. But if a five percent differential means toss up then that means that the whole presidential election is a toss up. Which pretty much means the poll is worthless.
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a39c3ed7a475e.htm
Yes. Work, work, work but don't panic. Just wait until the GOP convention is over and the Prez gets a bump. He will take the lead in September and never look back.
Well, that's my prediction.
- Figuring out which states to pour resources into.
Ok, I will grant that and even throw in "trend tracking" for good measure.
I will amend my question to "what is the point of reporting the poll numbers the way they do?" Perhaps this is more of an indictment of public reporting than of the polling itself.
If the clients are political organizations, fine. But if the clients are news organizations, than the real answer to my question is that the only value provided is an opportunity to spin results, manipulate the conclusions and and attempt to push voters in one direction or another.
Remember the polls in 1994? None of the pollsters or talking heads had clue that the Republicans would sweep the congressional races and take over congress for the first time in 40 years.
Some polls show MN, WI, and PA in play. If W can win FL, OH, and PA, its all over for Kerry. Even with just two it looks good for Bush. With MN and/or WI, even better.
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