Posted on 08/24/2004 10:59:11 AM PDT by PinnedAndRecessed
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Despite an embarrassing failure in their forecasting four years ago, political scientists and economists are again predicting the outcome of the presidential election, and most foresee a win for President George W. Bush.
"If this election follows historical patterns, it looks very likely that Bush is going to win," said Ray Fair, a Yale University economist whose model is built mainly around gross domestic product growth and predicts that Bush will take 58.5 percent of the vote.
Current polls show a very close race with many suggesting that Democratic nominee John Kerry may be slightly ahead.
There is a wide variety of election models available. Each takes different combinations of factors to calculate a prediction for the November 2 vote but all rely heavily on economic data -- usually growth, inflation, unemployment, wage growth or a combination of these factors.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
In fact, at the risk of sounding overconfident, I predict the demonRat party will be in crisis such as they've never seen since Lincoln was elected.
58% is about six points too high.
What candidate did they predict that made their 2000 call a failure?
I say 50.08%, just barely a majority. EV count of 307 Bush, 231 Kerry.
One can only hope and pray
You are pretty close.
Words you will never read when Reuters reports on a LA Times poll.
In 2000 their economic model predicted that Gore would get around 54% of the vote. I wonder how does the model work in an open election? Was Gore treated like the incumbent? If he wasn't then I do not see how an economic model could have predicted the 2000 election.
I thought the Fair guy predicted a narrow plurality of the popular vote for Gore in 2000. I read that in other articles. If that is correct, he was pretty close. So hopefully this 58% projection is right. I sincerely doubt it though. If Mr Bush takes more than 51 or 52% of the popular vote I will be stunned.
I pray every day.
I hope you are right. We have the White House and both houses of Congress, and still not enough is getting done. We need to crush the tides of dissent -- anything less will not really be a victory.
"It says GW will win by about 58%. I disagree. I think GW's victory will be so lopsided that career dim politicians are going to abandon ship in record numbers. In fact, at the risk of sounding overconfident, I predict the demonRat party will be in crisis such as they've never seen since Lincoln was elected."
I wish I could share your optimism. I live in PA. Yesterday I visited my sister in conservative Lancaster, Pa. Normally the heart of Republican support. There were many Kerry-Edwards lawn signs, two for Bush-Cheney. My sister said most of the Republicans she knows will be voting for Kerry, having bought into every myth/lie/propoganda the Dems have presented. I returned home so disheartened.
Where I live, in suburban Phila, it seems heavily weighted toward Kerry. This used to be a strongly Republican area, then sort of split (anyone remember the Fox-Mesvinsky race years ago?) and now appears more Dem than Pub.
The MSM, public schools, entertainment media have relentlessly brainwashed the masses. What I observe is around here, they seemed to have succeeded.
IMO, Bush II is running the same kind of soft-pedal campaign that his father ran, that Dole ran... You know, the "gentlemanly high road" approach. What he needs to do, if he really wants to win, is to bring back the Lee Atwater approach.
That withstanding, I still pray daily for a strong Bush win.
www.presidentialprayerteam.org/praythevote
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.