Electoral College Breakdown 2004, August 22nd Update

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

Chances Are

Kevin Drum of the Washington Monthly recently wrote an intruiging piece that argues that when the media reports a poll as showing a statistical tie, this is not necessarily the case.

In fact, what we're really interested in is the probability that the difference is greater than zero — in other words, that one candidate is genuinely ahead of the other. But this probability isn't a cutoff, it's a continuum: the bigger the lead, the more likely that someone is ahead and that the result isn't just a polling fluke. So instead of lazily reporting any result within the MOE as a "tie," which is statistically wrong anyway, it would be more informative to just go ahead and tell us how probable it is that a candidate is really ahead.

Mr. Drum presents a chart that helps translating various leads, given a particular margin of error, into the probability that the candidate with a particular lead is actually ahead. For example, if a poll with a three point margin of error shows a candidate having a two point lead, then there is a 75% chance that the candidate really does have a lead. In other words, while that result is well within the margin of error, there is a considerable chance that the candidate shown to be in the lead is actually in the lead.

From a purely mathematical point of view, this is correct. Harris Interactive made a similar point in the press release accompanying their most recent national poll.

Journalists often describe a close race, where a poll shows a small gap between two candidates as a "statistical dead heat." Harris Interactive and most other leading firms never use this phrase because we believe it is misleading. It implies, wrongly, that there is an equal probability that either candidate is ahead and that (wrongly again) there is no difference between (say) a two-point lead for one candidate and a two-point lead over the other. The term "a dead heat" should only be used when the poll shows the candidates to be exactly equal. If one candidate is ahead by even one percentage point, there is a probability (if not a big one) that he or she is actually ahead, so it is wrong to describe this as a "statistical dead heat."

The implications for those who analyze polling data for meaning would be evident if that was all there is to the story; even a mere 1 point lead in a survey would mean there is about a 60% chance that the leading candidate actually would win if the election was held at that point in time.

But is that all there is to the story?

To help answer that question, we can look back to the 2000 Presidential election. The popular vote rounded to the nearest percentage point was a tie, 48% for Gore to 48% for Bush. As documented by the National Council on Public Polls, seven out of ten major polls taken before the election found Bush leading Gore by at least 2 points. Given the typical margin of error for the national polls of plus or minus three percent, the percentage of the time that a Gore would actually have been leading when a poll result showed Bush leading by 2 points was 25%. That would be for a single poll result, however. What are the chances that 7 out of 10 polls would show Bush leading by 2 points when the race was, in reality, essentially a tie? The actual chances of this occurring due to random variance is about 0.351% of the time, or 7 times out of 2000. Further, in actuality Gore came out about 0.5% ahead of Bush. The chance that a single poll would show him trailing by 2 when he was really ahead by half of a point is about 20%. The chance that 7 out of 10 would show the same drops to 0.086%, or less than one time out of a thousand. It was possible, but not likely.

Things get even dicier when one looks back at the 1996 election. While that race was not nearly as close as 2000, the overwhelming majority of pollsters were off from the actual result by margins well beyond what can be explained as random chance. There may be a realistic chance that a single poll result will be off by 5 points, but there is little chance that 9 out of 10 will be off by that much unless there is something else causing the error beyond the error predicted by sampling.

This jibes with the review I did of the state polling from 2000 earlier this year. In that review, I found that while it would seem intuitive that the candidate who was leading by up to three points in the last poll taken before the election in a state would have a better than even chance of winning the state, there was no such correlation during the 2000 election.

Further evidence that there is more to the story can be found in the polling of John Zogby for the 2002 Senatorial races. Zogby had Thune winning by 5%. He lost. The chance that Johnson would actually be winning when a poll with a 4% MoE had him down by 5% was just 10%. Zogby had Mondale up by 6%; the chance that Coleman was actually winning given that result was just 6%. He had Talent up by 8%. While Talent did win, the chance that the race would be as tight as it was given the poll's result was under 6%. He had Strickland up by 6%; again the chance that Allard was ahead was 6%. He also had Cleland winning, and Terrell way ahead of Landrieux. The chance that Zogby would be so wrong so often just by random chance was below 1 in 10,000.

The same Harris press release that describes why it is inaccurate to say that a one or two point lead is a statistical dead heat gives a partial explanation to why it remains accurate to say that a one or two point lead gives little indication as to who is actually ahead.

Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

Throw in the fact that when a survey is taken there are undecided voters who will end up voting one way or another and it becomes even more clear that while statistics may say that a candidate up by 2 points has a greater chance of being ahead, the probability is overwhelmed by the other factors. The fact of the matter is that polling as applied to campaigns is a fuzzy science. As long as there is no way to identify before hand exactly who will vote, and as long as there is no way to force undecideds to decide beforehand exactly how they will decide on election day, polls will never be as accurate as theory would dictate.

This Week's Polling Updates Overview

There were many polls this week (21 different states polled, but still no Delaware), and most of them showed the race tightening up compared to the previous two weeks. This is best shown by the ECB Classic view, which now has just a four electoral vote margin between the two candidates. I believe this to be a bit misleading though, as this view has California being too tight to have in Kerry's ledger. The main ECB view of the race still has Kerry ahead comfortably, but many of the states that are now included in his total are barely hanging on to the "Leaning" designation.

	Result	With Tossups
ECB	Kerry 255, Bush 178	Kerry 316, Bush 206
ECB Classic	Kerry 161, Bush 157	Kerry 291, Bush 232
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Kerry 216, Bush 157	Kerry 296, Bush 227
Calculated National Result	Bush 46.3%, Kerry 46.1%

	Kentucky
Electoral Votes: 8
2000 Result
Bush 57%
Gore 41%

Background: Johnson, Carter (first time) and Clinton (twice) carried the Bluegrass state. Nixon (twice), Reagan (twice) and both Bushes won here. It is very likely that Clinton would not have carried Kentucky either time if not for Perot. In 1992 Clinton won by three points with Perot capturing 13%, and in 1996 Clinton won by 1% with Perot capturing 9%.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
10/23/03	Associated Press	Link	LV	4%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	29%	Bush +18
2/4/04	Courier Journal	NA	LV	4%	Bush	55%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +17
2/16/04	Survey USA	Link	LV	3.8%	Bush	57%	Kerry	41%	Bush +16
5/11/04	Bluegrass Poll	Link	811 Adults	3.4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	40%	Bush +12
5/20/04	Garin Hart Yang (D)	Link	RV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	43%	Bush +6
6/8/04	Survey USA	Link	669 LV	4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	39%	Bush +13
7/26/04	Survey USA	Link	690 LV	4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	42%	Bush +10
8/15/04	Survey USA	Link	697 LV	4%	Bush	56%	Kerry	39%	Bush +17

Punditry: There are states he won in 2000 that the President needs to worry about in 2004. Kentucky is not one of them. It remains a Strong Advantage for Bush. Senator Bunning, who some Democrats felt was vulnerable this cycle, is ahead by even more.

	North Carolina
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Result
Bush 56%
Gore 43%

Background: Since Lyndon Johnson's win here, only once have the Democrats taken Tar Heel electors. That's a bit deceptive, however, as many times it was extremely close. Carter lost to Reagan here by only two points in that nationwide blowout. Clinton lost two elections by a combined total of 5%. Yet the Clinton losses are also deceptive, in that the margins would have been considerably larger without Perot and his charts. Simply stated, like much of the south North Carolina votes Republican for President, although a southerner atop the ticket can make things interesting; not always though, as Al Gore demonstrated.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
9/16/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	51%	Edwards	40%	Bush +11
11/15/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	54%	Edwards	42%	Bush +12
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	53%	Kerry	39%	Bush +14
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	52%	Edwards	45%	Bush +7
2/26/04	Survey USA	Link	654 RV	3.9%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	3%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/1/04	Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal (D)	No Lik	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
5/12/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	41%	Bush +7
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
6/16/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	42%	Bush +7
7/12/04	Gallup	Link	680 LV	5%	Bush	56%	Kerry	41%	Bush +15
7/12/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
7/14/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5
7/22/04	Fairbanks, Maslin, Maulin, and Associaties (D)	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
7/26/04	SurveyUSA	Link	906 LV	3%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	45%	Bush +5
8/11/04	Research 2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
8/15/04	SurveyUSA	Link	592 LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	45%	Bush +6

Punditry: Barely changed from SurveyUSA's poll of a month ago, the 6 point margin leaves North Carolina as Leaning Towards Bush. Bush's margin of lead is bigger among those who are probable to vote as compared to certain to vote. Kerry leads among the young but trails among all other age groups. Kerry has monopolized the black vote, with Bush attracting just 6%. Each one of these indicate that Kerry will have difficulty going over the top in his running mate's home state. However, since the Democrat candidates for Senate and for Governor are leading in the same poll, it could be doable; North Carolinans are not reflexively Republican.

	Maryland
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Gore 57%
Bush 40%

Background: Since the 1960 election, the only Republicans to carry Maryland were Nixon for his re-elect, Reagan for his re-elect, and George H. W. Bush during his first campaign. Clinton did not need Perot to win here either time. This is a Democrat state.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
1/12/04	Potomac, Inc	Link	1,200 LV	2.8%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	51%	Dem +10
2/8/04	Gonzalez	Link	818 RV	3.5%	Bush	40%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +11
2/27/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +9
3/24/04	Gonzales Research and Marketing	Link	825 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
6/9/04	Gonzales Research and Marketing	Link	LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +14
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +14
8/15/04	Gonzales Research and Marketing	Link	847 LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +13

Punditry: Strong Advantage for Kerry, and changed little from two months ago when Gonzales last polled Maryland. Bush's approval gap is just three points; even if he were to get all of those who approve of his performance he still would not be in the ballpark.

	Georgia
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Result
Bush 55%
Gore 43%

Background: Wallace and Goldwater won here. The only times the Democrats have carried this state since 1960 have been when native son Jimmy Carter was topping the ticket (twice) and when fellow southerner Bill Clinton beat that Yankee George H.W. Bush by a point, while Texan H. Ross Perot siphoned off 13% of the vote. This is not a friendly state for Democrats in Presidential elections, as even Bob Dole won here over Clinton despite Perot taking 7%.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
10/15/03	Zogby	Link	400 LV	4.5%	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	39%	Bush +13
10/23/03	Shapiro Research Group	Link	RV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +8
2/4/04	Shapiro Research Group	NA	RV	4.5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	44%	Bush +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
6/2/04	Insider Advantage	Link	RV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	32%	Bush +17
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	41%	Bush +11
7/11/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	40%	Bush +11
801 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	38%	Bush +13
8/2/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	43%	Bush +9
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	41%	Bush +11
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
8/17/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	54%	Kerry	40%	Bush +14
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	54%	Kerry	38%	Bush +16

Punditry: Bush actually attracts more support in Georgia than approves his job performance. Strong Advantage for Bush.

	Wisconsin
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Gore 47.83%
Bush 47.61%

Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
5/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +11
10/28/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +1
1/27/04	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	54%	Dem +16
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Kerry +3
3/31/04	Badger Poll	Link	500 Adults, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
500 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
4/21/04	Wisconsin Public Radio / St. Norbert College Survey Center	Link	358 RV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
4/28/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV, Nader not an option	4.5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +8
500 LV, Nader an option	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
4/28/04	Badger Poll	Link	511 Adults	4.5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	38%	Bush +12
5/9/04	Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D)	L ink	?	?	Bush	40%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +9
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	694 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	42%	Bush +2
6/23/04	Badger Poll	Link	504 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	575 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	48.4%	Kerry	45.9%	Bush +2.5
575 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	46.1%	Kerry	44.6%	Bush +1.5
7/13/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +6
8/2/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
8/17/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push

Punditry: Slight Advantage for Kerry. Bush's disapproval numbers continue to be very low comparatively to the rest of the country, which makes Wisconsin a state where the polling after the Republican convention will be particularly worth noting.

	Washington
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Result
Gore 50%
Bush 45%

Background: The Democrats have won the last four, and 6 of the last 10, with all four Republican wins coming consecutively (Nixon, Ford, ReaganX2). It is unclear as to if Clinton would have won the first time here sans Perot; it would likely have been extremely close. The Dukakis/Bush race was very close. The Clinton/Dole race was not.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
1/5/04	SurveyUSA	NA	975 RV	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +1
2/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	975 RV	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +12
3/24/04	SurveyUSA	Link	698 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6
4/5/04	The Elway Poll	NA	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +5
4/18/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
6/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	654 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
6/11/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
6/11/04	Mason-Dixon**	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
6/24/04	Moore Information (R)	NA	500 RV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	43%	Push
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +9
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6
8/2/04	SurveyUSA	Link	585 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +8
8/11/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +9
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/17/04	SurveyUSA	Link	602 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +8

Punditry: No change in Washington fom the previous SurveyUSA poll, and Washington is firmly entrenched in the Leaning Towards Kerry column.

	Missouri
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Result
Bush 50%
Gore 47%

Background: Considered by many to be a bellwether state, Missouri has gone Republican in every election after 1964 except for three. Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford by a small, four point margin. Bill Clinton won the state twice, but both times relied on Perot taking double digits (over 20% in the first). From 1968 on, the only Democrat to break 50% in Missouri was Carter, and the only Republican to fail to get 50% absent a truly strong third party candidate was Ford.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
9/9/03	Research 2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Dick Gephardt	39%	Bush +10
1/29/04	Research 2000	Link	804 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	40%	Bush +5
2/14/04	Decision Research (D)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
3/2/04	Suffolk University	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	39%	Bush +11
3/19/04	Decision Research (D)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
3/23/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	42%	Bush +7
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	43%	Bush +1
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	566 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	37%	Bush +11
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
7/8/04	SurveyUSA	Link	755 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
7/20/04	Market Research Institute	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/22/04	Research2000	Link	802 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
802 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
7/22/04	Gallup	Link	636 LV, Nader not an option	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	48%	Push
636 LV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	46%	Bush +4
8/18/04	SuveyUSA	Link	643 LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	47%	Bush +1

Punditry: I hate leaving a state at Tossup, but that is what I am doing. Bush wins comfortably among certain voters, but in those who are just probable, Kerry has a substantial lead; it works out to the one point margin shown above.

	F		Connecticut
Electoral Votes: 7
2000 Result
Gore 56%
Bush 38%

Background: 3-5-3 in the last 11 Presidential elections, with Clinton's first being probably due to the Perot factor.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
3/11/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3%	Bush	37%	Unnamed Democrat	51%	Dem +14
7/31/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3%	Bush	37%	Unnamed Democrat	51%	Dem +14
2/26/04	University of Connecticut	Link	448 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +13
3/28/04	University of Connecticut	Link	RV	4%	Bush	33%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +19
4/27/04	University of Connecticut	Li nk	501 RV	4%	Bush	33%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +18
6/1/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,035 RV	3%	Bush	36%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +10%
6/28/04	Quinnipiac	Link	929 RV	3%	Bush	32%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +18%
8/17/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,079 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +8%
1,079 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +7%

Punditry: I should have resisted the temptation last time and kept Connecticut at Strong Advantage for Kerry. The new Quinnipiac poll shows quite a different result than has been obtained previously, and if true would make Connecticut marginally competitive. The internals are less kind to the President, though. His approval gap is a mere 2 points, his disapproval rating is above 50%, and Kerry voters say there is no chance they will reconsider at a higher rate than Bush supporters. There is a large amount of undecideds, so perhaps things could get more interesting than I had thought. I would not count on it though; if Connecticut ends up being competitive then the entire race will have completely changed long before we get there.

	Iowa
Electoral Votes: 7
2000 Result
Gore 48%
Bush 46%

Background: Iowa is a state of streaks, going 1-5-4 over the last 10. Clinton would likely have lost his first campaign against Bush had Perot not been a factor. The state is generally close, with the only surprisingly large margin coming when Dukakis beat Bush by 10 points.

Iowa rated a slight advantage to Bush in the first ECB of 2000. This time, it rates a slight advantage to the Democrats. Other positions in Iowa are mixed. The Republicans hold 4 of the 5 House seats, and the Senate seats are split. The Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, but the Democrats hold all major executive offices except for Auditor. Republicans hold a 32% to 29% advantage in registration.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
9/12/03	Des Moines Register	Link	803 Adults	3.5%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Even
10/30/03	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/5/04	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +8
2/11/04	Selzer & Co.	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
3/23/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
5/25/04	Research 2000	Link	604 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
604 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
5/27/04	SurveyUSA	Link	794 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	614 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	45.7%	Kerry	50.4%	Kerry +4.7
614 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	44.4%	Kerry	47.7%	Kerry +3.3
7/21/04	Selzer & Co.	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
7/23/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	641 LV	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
7/28/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
8/3/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
8/18/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +2
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1

Punditry: No real change indicated by Strategic Vision, and Iowa remains a Slight Advantage for Kerry. Bush has a net approval rating of +10 in Iowa, which if true suggests that he may be able to get a decent convention bounce in Iowa.

	Minnesota
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Gore 48%
Bush 46%

Background: Nixon (against McGovern) is the only Republican winner since Ike. Reagan (against Carter) and Bush (against Gore) made it close, and it is possible that Dole could have beaten Clinton sans Perot. The Reagan race that was close was notable because it was against the homestate Mondale.

The slight advantage for the Democrats is a step up from the leaning Gore position at the start of ECB 2000. Minnesota's legislative seats are split right down the middle. Half of the Representatives, half of the Senate seats, and one of the state legislative chambers are held by each party. Most of the important executive branch offices are held by Republicans with the exception of Attorney General.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
1/26/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +2
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
4/2/04	Star-Tribune Minnesota Poll	Link	562 LV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +12
5/26/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
6/14/04	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	NA	LV	3.5%	Bush	42.2%	Kerry	46.5%	Kerry +4.3
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +9
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	589 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	45.8%	Kerry	49.0%	Kerry +3.2
589 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	44.2%	Kerry	46.5%	Kerry +2.3
7/16/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
7/24/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/3/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +4
801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
8/18/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3

Punditry: A very slight improvement for Senator Kerry in Minnesota, but still within the Slight Advantage for Kerry range. The President still has a small net positive approval rating in Minnesota, which is good for him, but his approval gap is just a single point, which is not.

	Ohio
Electoral Votes: 20
2000 Result
Bush 50%
Gore 46%

Background: Since Truman, Ohio has gone Democrat four times. LBJ crushed Goldwater, Carter edged Ford by an extremely slim margin, and Clinton won twice, both times relying on Perot heavily.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
2/7/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	59%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +23
9/19/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	57%	Kerry	38%	Bush +19
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
3/24/04	Ohio Poll	Link	632 RV	3.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
4/2/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,344 RV	2%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/13/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
5/25/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	1500 RV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	722 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +3
6/23/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	41%	Bush +4
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
7/19/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
7/22/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
7/22/04	Gallup	Link	639 LV, Nader not an option	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +6
639 LV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/23/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,047 RV	2%	Bush	47%	Kerry	44%	Bush +3
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
8/3/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5
8/11/04	American Research Group	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
8/15/04	Gallup	Link	628 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
8/17/04	Ohio Poll	Link	812 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
8/18/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	49%	Kerry	46%	Bush +3
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4

Punditry: The new entry here is the University of Cincinnati poll, which matches Gallup's result from just a few days earlier. Nader gets just 1% in this poll. Slight Advantage for Kerry remains the designation.

	California
Electoral Votes: 55
2000 Result
Gore 53%
Bush 42%

Background: On a three election streak for the Democrats, California has a reputation as a liberal bastion. While Gore did handle Bush easily in 2000, the fact is that the reputation may not fit the data on the Presidential level. Only three candidates have broken 53% in California since the 1964 landslide. Al Gore last time, homestate icon Ronald Reagan in his re-election campaign but not his first election, and Richard Nixon in his re-election campaign but not his first successful Presidential campaign.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
8/16/03	Field	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +5
8/16/03	Public Policy Institute	NA	LV	3%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Dem +5
1/3/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	LV	3%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Tied
1/13/04	Field	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/18/04	Rasmussen	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Dem +5
2/13/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	RV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	42%	Dem +4
2/16/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	1,103 LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	54%	Dem +17
2/22/04	LA Times	Link	1,521 RV	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	53%	Dem +13
2/27/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	505 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +5
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	455 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +9
4/17/04	Rasmussen	Link	502 LV	5%	Bush	40%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +11
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
5/6/04	SurveyUSA	Link	635 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +15
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +14
7/12/04	Public Policy Institute of California	Link	1,378 LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +11
7/22/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +11
7/25/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +18
8/4/04	Field	Link	633 LV	3.4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
8/11/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +10
8/11/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +16
8/18/04	SurveyUSA	Link	589 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3

Punditry: This is twice this election cycle where SurveyUSA has had the California race neck-and-neck. In between, but they and others have shown Kerry up by substantial amounts. This poll seems to have vastly oversampled Republicans. Kerry does better among Republicans than Bush does among Democrats, Kerry is winning among Independents, yet it is just a three point race? Not likely. The poll's internals show that the sample had more Republicans than Democrats; in 2000 the turnout was 45% D, 34% R according to the VNS exit poll. SurveyUSA obviously does not stratify by party affiliation, so they must have either just had an outlying sample, or for whatever reason at the time they polled Republicans were jazzed to turnout, or Democrats were particularly unenthused. Either way, I will be very surprised if we see more polls showing the same thing any time soon. Strong Advantage for Kerry.

	Oklahoma
Electoral Votes: 7
2000 Result
Bush 60%
Gore 38%

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
3/1/04	Wilson Research	NA	300 RV	5.7%	Bush	50%	Kerry	40%	Bush +10
4/1/04	Insider Advantage	Link	400 Residents	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	35%	Bush +12
5/20/04	Wilson Research	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	53%	Kerry	34%	Bush +19
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	58%	Kerry	34%	Bush +24
6/23/04	SurveyUSA	Link	651 LV	4%	Bush	60%	Kerry	34%	Bush +26
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	63%	Kerry	31%	Bush +32
7/12/04	KOTV and Tulsa World	Link	LV	5%	Bush	59%	Kerry	35%	Bush +24
7/29/04	Basswood Research (R)	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	56%	Kerry	36%	Bush +20
8/18/04	SurveyUSA	Link	596 LV	5%	Bush	57%	Kerry	38%	Bush +19

Punditry: Still Safe for Bush. Coburn leads Carson by just four. Coburn leads among certain voters, while those who are just probable favor Carson.

	South Carolina
Electoral Votes: 8
2000 Result
Bush 57%
Gore 41%

Background: Jimmy Carter, from neighboring Georgia, won this state. You have to go back to JFK to find another Democrat who was able to do it. Most of the time, it was not all that close although Carter did make it close against Reagan too; the fact that a neighbor was able to twice make the state competitive (and once win it) means that the state will merit more attention should Edwards win the Democrat nomination.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
7/28/03	Hickman Research	Link	?	?	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +16
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	39%	Bush +10
6/29/04	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	55%	Kerry	40%	Bush +15
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	53%	Kerry	36%	Bush +17
7/12/04	SurveyUSA	Link	710 LV	5%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
8/18/04	SurveyUSA	Link	727 LV	4%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11

Punditry: Strong Advantage for Bush. Surprisingly, DeMint is beating Tenenbaum by even more (52-39).

	Florida
Electoral Votes: 27
2000 Result
Bush 48.85%
Gore 48.84%

Background: Despite the best efforts of the results-oriented Florida Supreme Court, Bush held on to win the state in 2000, just as nearly every recount conducted afterwards validated. Did you know that since 1948, though, that only three times has Florida gone for the Democrat candidate? Johnson got 51%, Carter got 52%, and Clinton (2nd term) got 48% (with Perot taking 9%). More times than not, the Republican has come closer to 60%. Why Bush underperformed here to such a degree is something his campaign must rectify.

In the first ECB of 2000, Florida was listed as a battleground with a slight advantage to Gore. This time around, it is starting with a slight advantage for Bush. Florida has 6 Democrat Representatives and 18 Republicans. Both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by the Republicans. Republicans control most of the executive branch. However, both Senate seats are held by Democrats. As of Dec. 1, 2003, the state registration was 41.9% Democrat and 38.6% Republican.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
4/29/03	Mason-Dixon	Link</ td>	RV	5%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +15
12/3/03	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	37%	Bush +6
1/15/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +2
2/27/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
3/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/4/04	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
4/1/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/13/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/9/04	Hamilton, Beattie and Staff (D)	Link	1000 LV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +3
5/19/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	46%	Bush +1
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
6/14/04	SurveyUSA	Link	723 LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
6/23/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	38%	Bush +10
6/27/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,209 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
1,209 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	43%	Push
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/12/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	LV	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
7/20/04	Insider Advantage	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
7/19/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/21/04	LA Times	Link	729 RV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
7/21/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
7/22/04	Gallup	Link	699 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	47%	Bush +3
699 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	46%	Bush +4
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
8/4/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	48%	Push
801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	47%	Bush +1
8/5/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7
8/10/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,094 RV, Nader Not An Option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
1,094 RV, Nader An Option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6
8/18/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader Not An Option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
801 LV, Nader An Option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1

Punditry: Slightly bette for Kerry than the last Strategic Vision poll, but not as good for him as other recent Florida polls. Rasmussen is also showing things tighter than indicated here. Still, for now I'll leave it as Leaning Towards Kerry, at least until there is a publically available non-partisan poll verifying that.

	Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 21
2000 Result
Gore 51%
Bush 46%

Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close. Pennsylvania started as leaning Bush last time, but has drifted to where it has a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans hold a 12-7 advantage in the numbers of Representatives, and hold both Senate seats. They also hold both chambers of the state legislature. The Democrats hold the major executive branch positions except for Attorney General, and have a significant registration advantage (48%-42%).

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
5/13/03	Quinnipiac	Link	952 RV	3.2%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%	Bush +22
10/9/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,116 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
11/23/03	Muhlenberg College	Link	430 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	40%	Bush +7
12/14/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,092 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	42%	Bush +8
2/18/04	Quinnipiac	Ling	1,356 RV	2.7%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Keystone Poll	Link	392 RV	4.9%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Dem +1
3/?/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	RV	?%	Bush	?%	Kerry	?%	Push
3/3/04	Pennsylvania Public Mind	Link	1750 Adults	2.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
3/11/04	Survey USA	Link	802 RV	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +2
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader not given as an option)	3	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
1,022 RV (Nader given as an option)	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/29/04	Keystone Poll	Link	565 RV	4.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	40%	Bush +6
4/19/04	Quinnipiac	Link	769 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
769 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
4/25/04	Pew Research	Link	867 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	42%	Push
5/3/04	Bennett, Petts, And Blumenthal (D)	L ink	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
5/7/04	Susquehanna Polling (R)	Link	650 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
5/14/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/25/04	Quinnipiac	Link	701 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
6/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	684 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/22/04	Quinnipiac	Link	839 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +1
839 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	41%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/11/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,157 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +5
1,157 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
7/20/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/21/04	LA Times	Link	815 RV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +10
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
8/2/04	SurveyUSA	Link	748 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
8/4/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +8
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
8/15/04	Keystone Poll	Link	660 RV	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +6
8/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,430 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
1,430 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +5
8/18/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4

Punditry: Right in line with other Pennsylvania polls, if not a bit more favorable to the Democrats since it is a likely voter poll and not of just registered voters. Pennsylvania is still Leaning Towards Kerry.

	New Mexico
Electoral Votes: 5
2000 Result
Gore 48%
Bush 48%

Background: No state, not even Florida, was closer in the last election than New Mexico. Prior to Clinton breaking through, the Republicans had carried the state for 6 consecutive elections, often by significant margins. Both times that Clinton carried New Mexico, the Perot vote played a significant factor. The strong showing Perot made here suggests that this is a state concerned with Mexico, both from an immigration perspective and from a jobs perspective.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
9/12/03	Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	43%	Dem +3
3/15/04	Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque**	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +1
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
7/8/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/4/04	Rasmussen (L)	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option, Badnarik an option	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7
8/15/04	Rasmussen (L)	Link	500 LV, Nader not an option, Badnarik an option	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
8/19/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7

Punditry: I hate when the numbers look like this. Three of the last four show Kerry up by 7. But one of those was done by a company that now has the race tied. And if we go back further, four of the last seven have the race within a single point of being dead even. It would be nice to get some other polling companies in here to see what they are showing. Given how close NM was in 2000, I am going to keep New Mexico right where I have it: Slight Advantage for Kerry.

	Michigan
Electoral Votes: 17
2000 Result
Gore 51%
Bush 46%

Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%. Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
5/26/03	Epic/MRA	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	48%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +7
9/21/03	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +5
12/10/03	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	53%	Kerry	43%	Bush +10
2/3/04	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	46%	Kerry	51%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Dem +4
3/1/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
3/14/04	Marketing Resource Group	Link	600 RV	4.1%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/4/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
5/2/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/12/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	413 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
5/31/04	Survey USA	Link	567 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6
6/6/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	40%	Bush +2
6/30/04	Survey USA	Link	594 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
6/30/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	43%	Bush +1
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/1/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
7/8/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7
7/8/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/17/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6
8/2/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	608 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +11
8/10/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/17/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +6
8/19/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3

Punditry: According to American Research Group, Bush has narrowed the margin between Kerry and himself by four points since just after Edwards was named as Kerry's running mate. The candidates are doing equally well within their own party, and Kerry has a slight edge among independents. Michigan has been floating around the border between slight advantage and Leaning Towards Kerry for quite some time, and I suspect that it will soon be moving back to the tighter designation, but not quite yet. I want another poll to confirm, especially since Rasmussen's premium numbers do not fully mesh with these.

			Colorado
Electoral Votes: 9
2000 Result
Bush 51%
Gore 42%

Background: Colorado is generally considered to be winnable for the Democrats, but historically this has proven to be a solid GOP bastion. Only three times since Franklin Delano Roosevelt was President has a Democrat carried this state (Truman, Johnson, and Clinton against Bush- with a big thanks to Perot taking 23% of the tally).

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
9/8-10/03	Colorado Democratic Party	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	35%	Bush +7
12/15-16/03	Public Opinion Strategies	NA	LV	4.9%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +10
3/16/04	McLauglin & Associates (R)	NA	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
4/2/04	Public Opinion Strategies	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	40%	Bush +9
4/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5
6/18/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
8/16/04	SurveyUSA	Link	622 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
8/19/04	Rasmussen	Link	622 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push

Punditry: Rasmussen comes in and says the same thing that SurveyUSA said-- Colorado is a complete Tossup heading in to the Republican convention. The internals on this poll, while not publically available, make the topline results a bit hard to understand, as they are not very good for Senator Kerry.

	Nevada
Electoral Votes: 5
2000 Result
Bush 50%
Gore 46%

Background: Since 1964, Nevada has gone Republican every Presidential election except for the two victories by Bill Clinton, both of which were by very small margins (margins which were 1/9th the size of the Perot vote). Most of the other elections were comfortable wins for the GOP.

Nevada was leaning Bush in the first 2000 ECB, and this year rates a slight advantage for Bush. Legislatively, the state is split. Two of the three Representatives are Republicans. The two Senate seats are split. The Democrats control the state Assembly while the Republicans control the state Senate. The Republicans hold most executive branch offices. The registration race is close, with Republicans holding a one point advantage (41%-40%).

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
7/9/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Unnamed Democrat	23%	Bush +28
10/28/03	Magellan Research	Link	RV	4%	Bush	32%	Unnamed Democrat	23%	Bush +9
12/3/03	Southwest Group	Link	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	34%	Bush +16
2/13/04	SurveyUSA	Link	505 RV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	48%	Bush +1
3/17/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 RV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	38%	Bush +11
7/22/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	43%	Bush +3
7/23/04	SurveyUSA	Link	801 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +4
8/15/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	46%	Bush +1
8/16/04	SurveyUSA	Link	520 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	46%	Bush +3
8/17/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	42%	Bush +2

Punditry: Pretty much the same margin as the SurveyUSA result, but with quite a bit more undecideds. The more undecideds, the more in flux the state is. The article writeup did not include any details to analyze beyond the topline, which is indicative of the state continuing to be a Slight Advantage for Bush.

	New Jersey
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Result
Gore 56%
Bush 40%

Background: New Jersey used to be considered a Republican state. Those days have passed, although there are still some signs of life. In the last 10 Presidential elections it has gone 1-6-3 with the Republican wins coming in the middle, the last Clinton win and the Gore win were by such substantial margins that it is hard to avoid the feeling that New Jersey is trending leftward.

If New Jersey remains tight enough to stay in the battleground, it is a case of back to the future. ECB2000 started with it leaning Gore's way. The Democrats have 7 of 13 Representatives and both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, hold all of the important executive offices, and have a 25%-19% advantage in voter registration.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
9/8/03	Rutgers	Link	802 Adults	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	35%	Bush +8
9/15/03	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	29%	Bush +7
9/25/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3.1%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
11/10/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,027 RV	3.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	43%	Bush +3
1/11/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	32%	Bush +8
1/13/04	Rutgers	Link	823 RV	4.2%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +3
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
4/20/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/4/04	Rutgers / Eagleton	Link	643 RV	4%	Bush	37%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +6
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader not an option	2.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
6/20/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,167 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
7/26/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	834 RV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +2
7/28/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +10
7/30/04	Rutgers / Eagleton	Link	624 RV	4%	Bush	32%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +20
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	38%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +13
8/2/04	Quinnipiac	Link	996 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	36%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +13
8/9/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +9
801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +12
8/19/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +11

Punditry: There have been some rumblings that internal polling for the Democrats showed the race here considerably closer after McGreevey's situation burst to the forefront. Research2000's poll shows no indication of this being true. New Jersey remains a Strong Advantage for Kerry.

Kerry		Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	OR (7) K47-B41 7/31/04	WV (5) K47-B44 7/28/04	MO (11) B48-K47 8/17/04	VA (13) B49-K46 7/31/04	AZ (10) B48-K45 8/1/04	SD (3) B50-K35 5/21/04	ND (3)
RI (4) K49-B25 6/14/04	VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04	NH (4) K49-B42 8/5/04	ME (4) K48-B44 7/31/04	CO (9) B47-K47 8/17/04	AR (6) B46-K46 7/31/04	TN (11) B48-K46 8/2/04	LA (9) B54-K38 7/??/04	NE (5)
MA (12) K56-B30 7/28/04	IL (21) K54-B39 7/31/04	WA (11) K51-B43*R 8/17/04	WI (10) K47-B46*R 8/17/04	-	NV (5) B44-K42 8/17/04	NC (15) B51-K45 8/15/04	KY (8) B56-K39 8/15/04	WY (3)
NY (31) K55-B35* 8/9/04	NJ (15) K49-B40*R 8/9/04	PA (21) K49-B44*R 8/18/04	OH (20) B49-K46*R 8/18/04	-	-	-	GA (15) B54-K40*R 8/17/04	MS (6) B61-K30 4/21/04
-	HI (4) K48-B41 8/3/04*	FL (27) K47-B46*R 8/18/04	IA (7) K49-B47*R 8/18/04	-	-	-	SC (8) B53-K42 8/18/04	UT (5) B67-K22 5/10/04
-	MD (10) K53-B40 8/15/04	MI (17) K48-B45 8/19/04	MN (10) K49-B44*R 8/18/04	-	-	-	-	MT (3) B53-K33 5/26/04
-	CT (7) K45-B38* 8/17/04	-	NM (5) K49-B42 8/19/04	-	-	-	-	ID (4) B55-K25 6/14/04
-	CA (55) K49-B46 8/18/04	-	-	-	-	-	-	TX (34) B55-K37 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	KS (6) B56-K36 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AK (3) B56-K33*R 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	IN (11) B47-K26* 7/12/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AL (9) B56-K34 7/28/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	OK (7) B57-K38 8/18/04
Totals
Kerry States	Battleground States	Bush States
50	118	87	61	20	24	36	43	99
255	105	178

* Indicates a Registered Voter poll as opposed to a Likely Voter poll.
*R Indicates a partisan Republican poll. *D Inidcates a partisan Democrat poll.
** Indicates a poll of either adults or residents.

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ECB	Kerry unch., Bush -9	Kerry unch., Bush -4
ECB Classic	Kerry -99, Bush +6	Kerry -20, Bush +11
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Kerry -49, Bush +6	Kerry -25, Bush +16
Calculated National Result	Bush +1.4%,Kerry -0.4%