I can't wait until Bush/Cheney '04 starts talking about Senator Kerry's US Senate service. That will be Kerry's final undoing, because Kerry has never distinguished himself in the US Senate! 
Posted on 08/22/2004 6:35:25 AM PDT by kattracks
President George W. Bush and his Republican Party have been given a golden opportunity to possibly clinch the sale of a second Bush term.Since George McGovern's presidential run in 1972, all presidential candidates have received a sizable bounce in the polls following their party conventions. But with the Democratic convention now a footnote in history, President Bush comes into his own convention knowing that Massachusetts Senator and Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry received little, if any, bounce in the polls.
To most who view political contests with a practiced and judicious eye, these polls matter little at this stage of the race, with the real significance of poll watching reserved for late-September until election day. Essentially, it is a way for campaign-weary journalist to create news, where there otherwise may not be anything of real consequence regarding the race.
When the conventions and summer are behind us, Americans resume their normal work week, kids go back to school, and presidential politics creeps into the conversation of millions.
The Democratic convention was a success as far as party continuity and thematic appeal, as those who watched would tell you. However, the numbers do not lie. As suspect and misleading as the polls can be, it has always been a near-absolute that after a convention, the candidate can expect a modest if not superlative bounce in his poll numbers.
Today, the race stands as it started before the DNC bash in Boston--dead even. But the dynamics have now shifted in favor of the Bush camp. With the Democrats back in their box and their convention stars out of the spotlight, Kerry must now wait for the GOP convention in New York. It is here where Bush can inflict heavy damage on Kerry, possibly enough to leave a lasting impression until Election Day.
Though many Democrats feel that the race is Kerry’s to lose, Republicans will tell you to wait until their convention begins. Bush has a history of rising to the expectations associated with a major speech, and the party faithful will expect as much now. Arguably, this will be the most important speech Bush will give since his noteworthy address to Congress and the world on September 20, nine days after the nation was attacked.
For Bush, he will go into this convention with the wind at his back. Assuming the polls stay grounded within the margins of error, Bush will have a committed and consolidated Republican base not seen since the presidency of Ronald Reagan. He will have plenty of pre- and post-convention cash on hand. Bush will have a record of accomplishment to run on, something that John Kerry went out of his way not to point to during his own convention.
Bush will also be a short cab-ride from the hallowed confines of Ground Zero, literally two miles away from Madison Square Garden. This will not be lost upon the watching electorate. With the third anniversary of September 11 mere days away, the GOP will cast an aura of tragic yet heroic remembrance of the victims and their families, and trumpet the leadership of the president who has kept America safe since that awful day.
Further, Bush will stress to the country his ability to lead. His one-time campaign line that America “has turned a corner and is not turning back” is designed to cast Kerry as a tax-and-spend liberal, fickle on defense and the fight against terrorism, and no desire to advance American leadership around the world.
While Kerry has made much of Democratic Party unity, it is Republicans who have the more committed voters today. Typical Kerry voters cannot give reasons for their allegiance to him, but can readily give voice as to why “anybody but Bush” will do.
Bush can point to something the Democratic Party cannot, and that is his accomplishments during his first term. His successful war against terrorism and the rising economic outlook will be his twin towers of strength for his conservative base. For his more moderate supporters, he can point to legislation such as the No Child Left Behind Act, and the Medicare/Prescription drug bill. For social conservatives, Bush can point to the partial-birth abortion bill, and his proposed Constitutional Amendment against gay marriage.
In Boston last week, voters heard John Kerry mouth such banalities as ''We can do better'' and ''I will do more,'' but virtually omitting the fine print of just what he plans to actually do.
Expect President Bush to also unveil his plan for a second term at the convention. He will promote Social Security savings accounts and call for his previous tax cuts to be made permanent. In recent days, he has called for troop reductions within the broad theater of Europe--some 170,000 troops and family members. He will call for meaningful tax reform, meaning a serious look at the IRS and ways to eliminate its impact. Most importantly, he will stress to the American people that the war against terror will not end regardless who is elected on November 2.
For his part, John Kerry can do little but react. The ''Swift Boat Veterans for Truth'' ads and book sales have rattled his campaign. Kerry has not answered the questions put forth to him by the vets--any more than he has answered the question about what he would do in Iraq. For Kerry, the object has always been to somehow adopt all possible positions without ever committing to one. In the end, this will be his undoing.
The GOP convention is a golden opportunity to force Senator Kerry to play ''ketch-up,'' and force Kerry to define himself yet again to the electorate. If Republicans are bold in their ideas come convention time, Kerry will have a hard time doing what he has to date failed to do: capturing the voters’ attention with reasons as to why they should vote for him. With two months left until Election Day, there will be little reason to think that Kerry could offer something now. The ''anybody but Bush'' candidate could have much to worry about on the morning of September 3.
About the Writer: Vincent Fiore is a freelance writer and activist who resides in New York City. Vincent receives e-mail at Anwar004@aol.com.
Bob......where you at in the REPUBLIK..? Fellow freeper in search of allies in the southland!
my Uncle served in Nam as a helicopter pilot in the Marines. I wrote him a letter recently regarding the whole Kerry military issue and boy did he lay into Kerry.
He chose to steer clear of all the eye witness service debate...However his memories of Kerry's post action protesting along with Jane Fonda were what kept him wanting to fly another mission. He said what those two did was horrific.
I do my best here in LA LA Land to keep up the good fight. During the past year or two I have made some inroads! During the Recall I pulled my girlfriend and one of my best friends over to our side. They were both registered Democrats but by educating them on taxes and economics they have become Independents!
There is some hope ! recent polls show Kali a little closer but I just would not believe it if Bush won....Unless Kerry pulls a complete DEANIAC (which I have somewhat predicted)!
Hey anything is possible...Arnold won in a landslide all the while the LA SLIMES told us he couldn't! Remember Gov. Bustamante!
Ditto.
One little point I would like to add to this otherwise exceptional analysis: what John Kerry didn't get a bounce from in actual horserace numbers (though he did get a small lift in some polls which has largely faded now), he got in the internal numbers. His favorability rose and perceptions of him improved. He did, however, blow his chance for a Clinton-like convention (think 1992), which is why I think he will lose badly in November. But voters think more of him now, especially in many states. That's why President Bush so badly needs a convention.
Even if President Bush doens't surge 10 or 20 points ahead in the polls, if he can get his favorables and job approval up (in areas like the economy and Iraq, etc) it will be very positive. I have faith for really good things from the Convention and it sounds genuinely exciting ... but it is possible that the actual horserace numbers won't come until later. We'll just have to see.
If 10% of the conservatives DO stay home, I will consider it a PERSONAL failure, as I plan to put my efforts where my political party's basic philosophy stands...
Personal Responsibilities
I am going to walk and talk to my precinct and pretty much drive them to the polls if I have to.
I suggest others do the same, and that 10% will prove to be a myth very easily.
I can't wait until Bush/Cheney '04 starts talking about Senator Kerry's US Senate service. That will be Kerry's final undoing, because Kerry has never distinguished himself in the US Senate!
It will solidify Bush's base support so his numbers will probably stabilize in the 45-47% range. Kerry's will likely be in the 46-48% range. Both within the MOU for most polling services. So it will come down to a battle for the last few percentage points, electoral votes from key states, turnout, vote fraud (on the part of the Rats), and the Nader factor. IOW, 2000 all over again, with maybe OH or WV substituting for FL.
Sorry, can't give much of a hand in the southland. I'm in Morgan Hill (a bit south of San Jose).
I'm sorry to say that I've pretty much given up on getting the libs up here to vote for GWB. I do have a bunch of them wondering if they really want to vote for kerry, though. :=)
Bush won't get much of a polling bump out of the Republican convention either.
The MM's unabashed support of Kerry, and despicible treatment of the SBV'sFT, have turned a lot of us back into broken glass Republicans.
he has woken up a sleeping giant, which is the collective memory in the US regarding vietnam. in a sense, IMHO one of the strongest undercurrents in this election has become a national catharsis on the vietnam war for those who lived through it.
kerry opened up this wound, and now a large swath of people are going to vote revenge on the left for its lies and treachery during the vietnam war, which time has uncovered in its sordidness. the stark contrast between how the war in iraq has been waged (success IN SPIT OF the left) and vietnam (where the left CAUSED the defeat) could not be more evident.
all the slander, all the lies and villification from hollywood, the media and power hungry opportunists like kerry will be distilled down into a vote against kerry, regardless of the fact that GWB deserves the vote in his own right for what he has done.
payback is a bitch...
Did they ever line-up any conservative speakers?
Or are they still giving the RINOs the limelight?
"The GOP Convention Could Seal Kerry's Fate"
- Not if the MSM have anything to say about it. Get ready. The spinning and outright lying that the MSM will engage in during and after the convention will try your soul. They are determined to sink Bush and see that he gets no bounce from this convention. If they have to manufacture discord and scandal, they will see to it. It's no longer a question of the MSM just favoring Kerry - they have moved on to actual coordination of their stories with the Kerry campaign.
"The GOP Convention Could Seal Kerry's Fate"
- Not if the MSM have anything to say about it. Get ready. The spinning and outright lying that the MSM will engage in during and after the convention will try your soul. They are determined to sink Bush and see that he gets no bounce from this convention. If they have to manufacture discord and scandal, they will see to it. It's no longer a question of the MSM just favoring Kerry - they have moved on to actual coordination of their stories with the Kerry campaign.
I have a question. Recently, Rush Limbaugh was "chastising" Republicans for not registering new voters in Florida, and said that the democrats are signing people left and right. Has anything been done about this?
Didn't I see a poll yesterday that put Bush only 3 points behind Vietnam Veteran Agaibst Vietnam Veterans John Kerry in your venerable Republik of California? If I were a decade younger, I might recall the poll name...
Regards.
Yes, the Clinton years still leave a bad taste in my mouth.
Incredible. I must have missed that one.
If I were a decade younger, I might recall the poll name...
Yeah, I know what you mean. I suffer from CRS - Can't Remember Stuff (or something like that)
"The GOP Convention Could Seal Kerry's Fate"
Not if the MSM have anything to say about it.
Normally I'd agree with your point, but this year things are different. No matter what the media did, Kerry bombed at the DNC. No bump, no energy.
W doesn't need to actually hammer Kerry at the RNC. He should focus on the positive. The accomplishments.
Kerry has been unable to energize his base. Proving he is a VN war hero is not going to make that happen. So let him waste his time. While W get's people to see the successes the press have ignored. 50million people now free is no small deal. My guess is that is more than FDR freed in WWII.
Exactly.
Did you notice that Kerry didn't start his attacks on the Swiftees until after the WP came out with their story on Thurlow?
And now, with each additional story by the MSM, Kerry makes some stupid comment, so that the original story will be repeated ad nauseam.
The MSM also helps with their gratuitous comments in these articles although there in no direct link in any of the Kerry quotes.
And their headlines look as though they were written by the Kerry camp.
Since 35 percent of the voters are Conservative and 30 percent are RINO's and DINO's anyone who wants to win must feature RINO's at the convention.
The Center is made up of RINOs and DINOs.
A Conservative who wants to win and election must win all the RINO voters and some of the DINO voters.
Of course is they did what you want the Left would win every election 65 to 35 until with total control of the house, 65 votes in the senate, and all 9 supreme court justices, the Left decided to make Conservatism illegal.
As a new Joseph Stalin had your brains blown out, you could think with your last thought... at least I didn't tolerate RINOs.
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