Posted on 08/22/2004 12:02:47 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Hidden amid the hoopla of finding planets orbiting other stars, decoding the human genome and discovering miracle materials with nanotechnology, there's a seemingly improbable but perhaps even more important story — U.S. science may be in decline.
After 50 years of supremacy, both scientifically and economically, America now faces formidable challenges from foreign governments that have recognized scientific research and new technology as the fuels of a powerful economy.
"The Chinese government has a slogan, 'Develop science to save the country,' " said Paul Chu, a physics professor at the University of Houston who also is president of Hong Kong University of Science & Technology. "For a long time they have talked about it. Now they are serious."
According to the National Science Foundation and other organizations that track science indicators, the United States' share of worldwide scientific and engineering research publications, Nobel Prize awards, and some types of patents is falling.
A recent trend in the number of foreign students applying to U.S. schools is even more troubling, scientists say.
As American students have become less interested in science and engineering, top U.S. graduate schools have turned increasingly toward Europe and Asia for the best young scientists to fill laboratories. Yet now, with post-Sept. 11 visa rules tightening American borders, fewer foreign students are willing to endure the hassle of getting into the country.
"Essentially, the United States is pushing the best students from China and other countries away," Chu said.
The new restrictions also hassle students who are already here, like Lijun Zhu, a physics graduate student at Rice University since 1998 who returned two years ago to China to get married. The honeymoon became a nightmare when he and his new wife were stranded for more than two months, awaiting visa renewals.
"I was afraid of going outside my home for even a moment and missing the call from the consulate," Zhu recalled.
Losing future students like Zhu would cost more than just prestige in ivory towers. It could very well mean losing the nation's technological leadership, with implications for the nation's job market and security, to say nothing of culture.
Decline called 'ridiculous' Although President Bush's science adviser, John Marburger, dismisses as "ridiculous" the notion that America could lose its scientific prestige, scientists and policy-makers lay the blame in several areas: the drying well of foreign students, limited stem cell research and less federal funding for basic science research.
Since the visa restrictions were tightened in 2002, foreign-student applications to U.S. universities have fallen from 400,000 a year to 325,000, a 19 percent drop. Graduate school applications nationally are down even further, by up to 40 percent, said Jordan Konisky, vice provost for research and graduate studies at Rice University.
The problem, he said, is that when additional screening requirements were added, extra staffing in U.S. consulates to handle the workload was not.
And the atmosphere in these foreign offices, simmering with tension from terrorism's threat, breeds caution.
"No bureaucrat wants to make a mistake and approve a visa for someone that comes to this country and causes a problem," Konisky said. "So they tend to be very conservative about this, and that's good. But I think they're being overly conservative."
Graduate science programs at Rice and elsewhere are heavily dependent on foreign students.
Nearly half of engineering graduate students are foreign, as are more than one-third of all natural sciences graduate students.
These students invigorate research, professors say. They publish papers, bring new ideas and play a major role in patent applications.
Afraid to leave the U.S. In 2003, the Rice graduate physics program admitted 16 foreign students. Two were delayed more than six months, and three were permanently blocked from entering the United States. Southern Methodist University has a smaller program, and in 2002, the two foreign students who were accepted didn't get visas. School officials briefly considered ending the program, but enough students gained visas in 2003 and this fall to keep it open, said Fredrick Olness, the SMU physics department chairman.
Yet even if students make it into the United States, their visa troubles, as evidenced by the plight of Zhu, aren't over.
Scientific conferences are held worldwide, and many students with families or looming deadlines at school opt not to travel for fear that they won't be able to come back. Likewise, meeting planners say the number of foreign scientists attending conferences in the United States has dropped because they don't want to bother with obtaining a temporary visa.
Then there are the physicists who want to work at some of the world's best particle accelerators, which are in Switzerland and Germany.
"All of the foreign faculty we have are afraid to leave the country because of visa problems," Olness said. "If this keeps up, the United States is going to take a hit on its stature in the worldwide physics community."
Seizing the opportunity Marburger, himself a physicist, said changes to streamline visa problems, including adding staff in U.S. consular offices abroad, should be announced soon.
"This has very high visibility in Washington, all the way up to the president," Marburger said.
The winner, for now at least, is clear — scientific enterprise everywhere else.
At Hong Kong University, applications from Chinese students have more than doubled in the past three years. Chu says his faculty is thrilled.
Chu said Great Britain and Australia have seized the opportunity and opened recruiting offices in China. The European Union, too, has set a goal of having the most competitive and knowledge-based economy in the world by 2010.
What concerns U.S. scientists is that a decades-long brain drain into America may be coming to an end.
America began attracting scientists in the 1930s when the shadow of Hitler's political and religious persecution fell over Europe. Hordes of leading scientists such as Albert Einstein and Enrico Fermi, whose work with nuclear chain reactions led to the atomic bomb, immigrated to the United States.
Focus on science funding After the war, the United States began spending billions of dollars on basic and defense-related research. Other great foreign scientists followed, drawn to new facilities and money. Their work laid the foundation for the technology bonanza of the 1990s, when one-third of Silicon Valley start-up companies were begun by foreigners.
Attracting top graduate students from other countries, then, is the first step toward continuing the trend.
"The United States used to welcome foreign scientists," said Zhu's adviser at Rice, physics professor Qimiao Si. "Nearly a century ago, the center of gravity shifted to the United States. We don't want that to happen in a reverse direction."
There are other policy areas that U.S. scientists say harm their ability to compete. Scientists say the Bush administration's policy to limit the use of embryonic stem cells will blunt advances made in biomedical research. "The stem cell decision has certainly put us behind at the front end of the curve," said Neal Lane, Clinton's science adviser. "It's a huge barrier."
The president's decision also led some U.S. researchers to seek private funds for their work. But this, said Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, usually a stalwart ally of Bush, is no solution to the issue.
"It's the federal research that is the big opportunity," the Texas senator said. "That's where the big dollars are. And to have these avenues to federal resources closed is going to hurt us in the long run."
Another problem, said Albert Teich, director of science and policy programs at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, is an increasing focus in the federal budget on applied military and homeland security research. Excluding a modest increase for biomedical research, nondefense research and development in the proposed 2005 federal budget would decline 2.1 percent, according to the association.
Marburger said federal science spending is still far greater than in any other country. The United States, he said, spends 1 1/2 times more on research and development than all of the European Union countries combined.
Teich agreed, but only to a point.
"It is probably wrong to say U.S. science is currently in decline," he said. "But it is certainly in danger of declining. We're perched on the edge."
Another troubling trend A fundamental problem, scientists and policy-makers say, is the lack of interest in science from American children.
Between 1994 and 2001, the number of U.S. students enrolling in science and engineering graduate programs fell 10 percent. Foreign enrollment jumped by 31 percent to make up for the shortfall.
National reports on this trend have offered suggestions to address the problem, such as giving money to community colleges to assist high-ability students in transferring to four-year science and engineering programs.
"Unfortunately, there's no silver bullet," said President Clinton's science adviser, Neal Lane.
Although there are some encouraging trends — the number of U.S. Hispanics enrolling in science graduate programs between 1994 and 2001 increased by more than one-third — the number of U.S. minorities in science graduate programs remains well below their representation in the total population.
I'd hate to think we'd use that award as a gauge of anything.
I have it on my bookshelf -- a later edition, still silver colored, 4 vols, published in the UK, translated from a German work. It's very good.
Since then, there have been many, many clones of the same or similar name, some good, some not.
WHen you start out, your productivity rises immensely after a few years experience -- but you won't get a comparable raise. So the only way to go is to not stay at any company for more than two years before moving on.
I cannot answer this question off of the top of my head. In all reality, I would need to go look at allocations and accomplish a budget analysis.
However, I can say this; IMHO, if we don't have the drive for further exploration and discovery, our society is in serious trouble.
You lost me here.
The contrails, or a thread about them?
;-)
Both! LOL!
And you misspelled them. I though they were renamed "chemtrails" now. Snicker!
/s/ ABU BANTU
MY DEAR FRIEND ABE,
I HAVE EXPERIENCED THE UNFORTUNEATE SETBACK REGARDING MY PARTICIPATION IN LIBERATING YOUR UNCLE'S FUNDS. ALL MY MONEY IS TIED UP IN THE "GREAT WESTERN UNOBTAINIUM MINING COMPANY," WHOSE STOCK HAS BEEN FROZEN BY THE SEC PENDING INVESTIGATION OF ALLEDGED SEXUAL IREGULARITIES BY THE CORPORATE OFFICERS. FORTUNEATELY, THOUGH THE STOCK CANNOT BE LEGALLY TRADED IN UNITED STATES, NO SUCH ENCUMBERANCES PRECLUDE TRADING ON THE VARIOUS AFRICAN STOCK EXCHNGES.
SINCE WE ARE NOW CLOSE BUSINESS PARTNERS IN YOUR UNCLES TRANSACTION, I AM WILLING TO SEND YOU $10,000,000 WORTH OF MY STOCK IN "GREAT WESTERN UNOBTAINIUM MINING COMPANY" FOR YOU TO SELL ON MY BEHALF ON THE NIGERIAN STOCK EXCHANGE. THE PROCEEDS OF THE SALE WILL THEN BE USED FOR THE LIBERATIONS OF YOUR UNCLES STRANDED FUNDS. I AM EVEN WILING TO GIVE FOR YOU A PERCENTAGE OF 8 OF THE TRANSACTION, TO COMPENSATE YOU FOR YOUR TROUBLES ON MY BEHALF.
THIS TRANSSACTION MUST BE COMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK, BEFORE SEC ENFORCEMENT SEIZES MY STOCK CERTIFICATES, BUT THE INSURANCE & PRIVATE COURIER SHIPPING COSTS TO SEND MY STOCK TO YOU IN NIGERIA IS VERY EXPENSIVE. IF YOU COULD PLEASE WIRE TRANSFER TO ME $25,000 IMMEDIATELY, I AM SURE I HAVE THE CERTIFICATES IN YOUR HAND BEFORE THE WEEK IS OUT.
PLEASE TAKE GREAT CARE IN THE HANDLING OF MY STOCK, AS IT REPRESENTS MY ENTIRE LIFE'S SAVINGS. I AM TRUSTING OF YOU BECUASE WE ARE NOW CLOSE BUSINESS PARTNERS IN RECOVERY OF YOUR UNCLES FUNDS, AND I COUNT UPON YOU TO NOT TAKE THE ADVANTAGES OF ME IN THIS MOMENT OF FINANCIAL DESPERATIONS.
YOUR TRUSTED FRIEND & BUSINESS PARTNER
HUGO ZONEBALL
P.O. BOX 41
SUITE 100
5000 FOOLSGOLD AVENUE
BUTTSCRATCH, ARKANSAS, US OF A
Didn't you know that they are using new technology to make the chemtrails invisible? No one can see them, but we KNOW they are there!
< /lunatic crank mode>
MY DEAR FRIEND AND PARTNER HUGO:
I WOULD LOVE TO BE ABLE TO SEND YOU THE $25,000 YOU REQUIRE SO THAT YOU CAN SEND ME YOUR $10 MILLION STOCK CERTIFICATE, BUT I HAVE BEEN THE VICTIM OF AN UNFORSEEN REVERSAL OF MY FORTUNES HERE IN NIGERIA.
MY 5TH WIFE HAS BEEN FOUND DEAD IN HER APARTMENT, APPARENTLY DUE TO NATURAL CAUSES (AN HYENA ATTACK). ALTHOUGH IT IS WELL KNOWN THAT ON THE DAY OF THE TRAGEDY I WAS NOT IN LAGOS, BUT IN ANOTHER CITY VISITING MY UNCLE, THE GENERAL, WHERE HE IS IN PRISON, THE AUTHORITIES, WHO ARE ENEMIES OF MY UNCLE, ARE CLAIMING THAT I AM RESPONSIBLE. THEY HAVE SEQUESTERED ALL MY ASSETS AND I AM UNABLE TO ASSIST YOU. I CANNOT EVEN PAY FOR A SHAMAN TO PERFORM THE TRADITIONAL RITES OF BURIAL.
HOWEVER, MY LAYWER INFORMS ME THAT FOR A MODEST BRIBE OF ONLY $10,000 HE CAN ARRANGE FOR THESE FALSE CHARGES TO BE DROPPED. THEN I CAN HELP YOU TO SELL YOUR STOCK, AND WE CAN PROCEED TO LIBERATE MY UNCLE'S $60 MILLION.
PLEASE WIRE THE FUNDS TO MY LAWYER, MOHAMMED IBOM, AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, SO THAT WE CAN CONTINUE WITH OUR MUTUALLY PROFITABLE BUSINESS ARRANGMENT.
YOUR FRIEND, ABU BANTU
165 - "Try mass driving JPL, or Boeing, or Northrop into space - it doesn't work.
You lost me here."
Mass driving an ingot into space or orbit is a relatively accomplishable technological feat, even today. Just doing it, could be done.
Turning that ingot into a space station or a space ship or whatever is the hard part - and you can't mass drive all the companies, people and technology and support into space.
So, while mass drive is a nice pipe dream for space travel, what do you accomplish by putting an ingot into space?
And you can't shoot them into space with a mass driver, nor can you build them in space with a mass driver, nor can you really economically effectively chemically propel them into space (except for the first one).
So, IMO, mass drivers lead no where, except to drive refined ingots of ore into space, (and we already have ore here on earth).
Huh? All I said was the gravity well of the moon allows for using mass drivers to propel material into lunar orbit. This is considerably cheaper that what we do today. You can build you "parts" on the lunar surface. Of course, this would require a considerable lunar colony and manufacturing infrastructure. OTHO, energy is cheap. Solar would do quite nicely up there.
Anti-gravity, warp drives, etc. are pipe dreams. So lets put our money where it actually will get us somewhere.
BUMP
Let's build something very simple (on the moon) for example, a pencil (an old old story):
http://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/rdPncl1.html
Just as you cannot trace your family tree back very far, so is it impossible for me to name and explain all my antecedents. But I would like to suggest enough of them to impress upon you the richness and complexity of my background.
RP.7
My family tree begins with what in fact is a tree, a cedar of straight grain that grows in Northern California and Oregon. Now contemplate all the saws and trucks and rope and the countless other gear used in harvesting and carting the cedar logs to the railroad siding. Think of all the persons and the numberless skills that went into their fabrication: the mining of ore, the making of steel and its refinement into saws, axes, motors; the growing of hemp and bringing it through all the stages to heavy and strong rope; the logging camps with their beds and mess halls, the cookery and the raising of all the foods. Why, untold thousands of persons had a hand in every cup of coffee the loggers drink!
RP.8
The logs are shipped to a mill in San Leandro, California. Can you imagine the individuals who make flat cars and rails and railroad engines and who construct and install the communication systems incidental thereto? These legions are among my antecedents.
RP.9
Consider the millwork in San Leandro. The cedar logs are cut into small, pencil-length slats less than one-fourth of an inch in thickness. These are kiln dried and then tinted for the same reason women put rouge on their faces. People prefer that I look pretty, not a pallid white. The slats are waxed and kiln dried again. How many skills went into the making of the tint and the kilns, into supplying the heat, the light and power, the belts, motors, and all the other things a mill requires? Sweepers in the mill among my ancestors? Yes, and included are the men who poured the concrete for the dam of a Pacific Gas & Electric Company hydroplant which supplies the mill's power!
RP.10
Don't overlook the ancestors present and distant who have a hand in transporting sixty carloads of slats across the nation.
RP.11
Once in the pencil factory—$4,000,000 in machinery and building, all capital accumulated by thrifty and saving parents of mine—each slat is given eight grooves by a complex machine, after which another machine lays leads in every other slat, applies glue, and places another slat atop—a lead sandwich, so to speak. Seven brothers and I are mechanically carved from this "wood-clinched" sandwich.
RP.12
My "lead" itself—it contains no lead at all—is complex. The graphite is mined in Ceylon. Consider these miners and those who make their many tools and the makers of the paper sacks in which the graphite is shipped and those who make the string that ties the sacks and those who put them aboard ships and those who make the ships. Even the lighthouse keepers along the way assisted in my birth—and the harbor pilots.
RP.13
The graphite is mixed with clay from Mississippi in which ammonium hydroxide is used in the refining process. Then wetting agents are added such as sulfonated tallow—animal fats chemically reacted with sulfuric acid. After passing through numerous machines, the mixture finally appears as endless extrusions—as from a sausage grinder-cut to size, dried, and baked for several hours at 1,850 degrees Fahrenheit. To increase their strength and smoothness the leads are then treated with a hot mixture which includes candelilla wax from Mexico, paraffin wax, and hydrogenated natural fats.
RP.14
My cedar receives six coats of lacquer. Do you know all the ingredients of lacquer? Who would think that the growers of castor beans and the refiners of castor oil are a part of it? They are. Why, even the processes by which the lacquer is made a beautiful yellow involve the skills of more persons than one can enumerate!
RP.15
Observe the labeling. That's a film formed by applying heat to carbon black mixed with resins. How do you make resins and what, pray, is carbon black?
RP.16
My bit of metal—the ferrule—is brass. Think of all the persons who mine zinc and copper and those who have the skills to make shiny sheet brass from these products of nature. Those black rings on my ferrule are black nickel. What is black nickel and how is it applied? The complete story of why the center of my ferrule has no black nickel on it would take pages to explain.
RP.17
Then there's my crowning glory, inelegantly referred to in the trade as "the plug," the part man uses to erase the errors he makes with me. An ingredient called "factice" is what does the erasing. It is a rubber-like product made by reacting rape-seed oil from the Dutch East Indies with sulfur chloride. Rubber, contrary to the common notion, is only for binding purposes. Then, too, there are numerous vulcanizing and accelerating agents. The pumice comes from Italy; and the pigment which gives "the plug" its color is cadmium sulfide.
RP.18
No One Knows
Does anyone wish to challenge my earlier assertion that no single person on the face of this earth knows how to make me?
RP.19
Actually, millions of human beings have had a hand in my creation, no one of whom even knows more than a very few of the others.
---
And you want to build interplanetary space ships from ore on the moon?
Just figure out how to build something simple - a pencil - or even a pen.
Interesting story, but not applicable. We already know how to build girders, grind ore, etc. We have 4000 years of "know-how" backing us up.
boy, you have a hard head.
Don't ever get into business or managment.
I spent years in construction. It is just amazing, all the resources, technology, personnel, infrastructure, etc that are required to do even the simplest things. Even here on earth.
You can't just go out into the desert and build a car, from the sand (even with the bright sunlite and heat and soil) all readily available.
Try it - you are out in California. drive out into the desert, all alone, and imagine, trying to build a car from the sand there. What do you need? First you need to get there (transport). Then you need water, and where are you going to get it. Then you need food, and energy. Now, you can unpack your picnic basket and unfold your solar blanket for shade. Plenty of sun for energy.
Now, what is it going to require to get some of that sand converted into a car? Get out your book on car building, we know how to build them, have been building them for a long time. And figure out how to convert the sand into a car.
(PS - I effectively did this, I helped build a city in Saudi, in the middle of the desert. And it is amazing the things required which everyone takes for granted.
Actually, sitting there in the sand, contemplating how to convert it into a car, you might first try to figure out how to convert the sand into a chair, for you to sit on, so you can get away from the heat of the sand.
And you can just pull your book on how to construct a chair from your picnic basket, after all, we have been building chairs for a long time.
What size shovel did you bring in your picnic basket? Did you bring a shovel?
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