[bluejay]

That's not what he said, and you know it.

He said, and I quote:

Such calculations are way beyond our current capabilities; and the simplistic numbers you see from creationists simply reflect their failure to appreciate the complexity of the problem.

First of all, the initial premise is simply wrong. We are talking about statistical analysis. This is hardly beyond our capabilities. If the concern is that we do not have enough data, then make some assumptions and explain what assumptions you are making and why.

If you are not willing to provide evidence supporting your theories then you expect others to accept your theory on faith. Of course, there is nothing wrong with that either.

[Ichneumon]

First of all, the initial premise is simply wrong. We are talking about statistical analysis. This is hardly beyond our capabilities. If the concern is that we do not have enough data, then make some assumptions and explain what assumptions you are making and why.

If you are not willing to provide evidence supporting your theories then you expect others to accept your theory on faith. Of course, there is nothing wrong with that either.

You're mixing apples and oranges, although I can't tell whether it's due to sophistry, or carelessness.

Lacking sufficient data to perform an exact probability calculation on the occurrence of a given event is not the same thing as lacking evidence that the event occurred, nor is it the same as lacking evidence of the general manner in which it occurred.

I couldn't even begin to calculate the odds of my having met my wife (as opposed to never having met her), but I have plenty of evidence that I did indeed meet her, and how it happened.

Likewise, we're nowhere near being able to calculate "the odds" of abiogenesis occurring, or evolution giving rise to modern life as we know it -- and given the vagaries of chaos theory, we probably never will be able to. But there is abundant evidence that abiogenesis occurred, and overwhelming evidence that modern life arose through evolutionary common descent.