Hurricane aftermath big test for president

AP ^ | August 13, 2003

[Roscoe Karns]

WASHINGTON (AP) - Once Hurricane Charley is gone from Florida, it's a safe bet President Bush will sweep in. Natural calamities present political opportunity, and many crucial electoral votes are in the path of Charley's howling winds.

President Bush declared a major disaster in Florida on Friday, ordering federal aid for the recovery effort just two hours after Charley hit the mainland.

Officials are loath to ascribe campaign motives to emergency response, but politics infuses everything this close to an election. No more so than in the state that handed Bush the presidency.

"This provides both opportunities and real dangers for the president," said Dario Moreno, a Florida International University political scientist.

Presidents are measured by the aid and sympathy that follow a big hit from nature, and Moreno said Bush stands to gain as long as he treats the emergency as more than a chance to roll up his sleeves and clear a bit of rubble for the cameras.

"If he looks like he's doing this for a photo opportunity, it's going to backfire on him," he said. "He has to make sure FEMA and the emergency aid responders are working around the clock and without a hitch."

With 145-mph winds, the hurricane bore down not only on the scene-stealing state of the last election, but one of the most politically dynamic parts of it - the western and central counties where both parties are in heated competition for the tens of thousands of non-Cuban Hispanics who have moved there since 2000. Florida offers 27 electoral votes, the fourth-biggest prize.

For Bush, lessons of disaster politics are close to home.

His father's political advisers were caught flat-footed at a similar point of the campaign cycle - August 1992 - when Hurricane Andrew wreaked havoc in Florida. Thousands went without shelter and other necessities for days while the magnitude of the storm slowly sank in for the federal government.

The first President Bush was roundly criticized for overseeing a by-the-formula response to extraordinary needs. He visited the area, but his administration declined an initial appeal to send a military engineering brigade and other troops for the relief effort and stumbled over disaster aid.

Barring an obviously inept performance from the White House, natural disasters inoculate presidents from campaign criticism for a time because opponents are wary of second-guessing the nation's leader in a crisis and can't be seen as trying to capitalize on people's misfortune.

Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry, for example, won't let himself be seen as begrudging Floridians federal relief dollars no matter how generous, analysts say.

"He can't accuse the president of politicizing a tragedy," said Kathryn Dunn Tenpas, a University of Pennsylvania presidential campaign scholar. "Kerry is best to be silent on the issue."

In 1992, Democratic candidate Bill Clinton toured Andrew's aftermath but carefully avoided jabbing at his opponent over the halting response. And when Washington rebounded with promises of massive aid, his campaign was mum.

Clinton's on-the-scene empathy after the Oklahoma City bombing moved people during a low point in his presidency.

[Brimack34]

Everything is political with AP. I am sure Kerry will show up(when it is safe) and tell everyone how he would have stopped it. The media will report how he was there first.

[Luke21]

Whenever it's apparent by a headline that a cheap shot is about to be taken at the president, it's a good bet the Washington Post's little shop of horrors called "The Associated Press" is gonna be behind the commie tripe. You can almost call it as ya click on the story.

[Bonaparte]

If he goes to Florida, he's a selfish opportunist.

If he doesn't go to Florida, he's an unfeeling brute.

In the liberal media, a Republican like Bush cannot win no matter what he does.

[zarf]

Where were you at?

Ugh...Homestead...