Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

How long will the Oil Age last?
Popular Science ^ | August 2004. | Kevin Kelleher

Posted on 08/13/2004 10:47:51 AM PDT by spetznaz

Quick, how many years will it be before the world runs out of oil? Don't know? Join the club. Actually, choose one of several clubs, each of which vehemently disagrees with the others on how much usable crude is left on the earth. The question is far from an academic exercise: This year oil hit a near record-high $40 a barrel, and Royal Dutch/Shell Group downgraded its reserves by 4.5 billion barrels.

While consumers pay for perceived shortages at the pump, scientists and economists struggle to reach consensus over "proven oil reserves," or how much oil you can realistically mine before recovery costs outstrip profits. Economist Leonardo Maugeri of Italian energy company Eni fired up the debate this May with an essay in Science that accused the "oil doomsters" of crying wolf.

Chief among the pessimists is the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, a group of European scientists who estimate that maximum oil production around the globe will peak in 2008 as demand rises from developing economies such as China. "If you squeezed all the oil in Iraq into a single bottle, you could fill four glasses, with the world consuming one glass of oil each year," says physicist and ASPO president Kjell Aleklett. "We've consumed nine bottles since oil was discovered, and we have another 9 or 10 in the refrigerator. How many more are there? Some say five or six, but we say three."

Others believe, like Maugeri, that the number of glasses is virtually limitless......

(Excerpt) Read more at popsci.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: gas; middleeast; oil; opec; peakoil; petroleum
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-70 next last
Interesting article .....and one that tries to keep a level head about what it says (i.e doesn't shout that oil is going to run out tomorrow and the sky is falling, and at the same time doesn't quote a few renegade scientists who say that 'oil oozes up from the mantle' and present that idea (which is scoffed at by most in the industry) as gospel truth.

I especially like how it ends (in the website) ....that the only way an answer will be found is through technology, and time.

1 posted on 08/13/2004 10:47:52 AM PDT by spetznaz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: spetznaz
There's also another issue that has not been mentioned: the potential to grow motor fuels using certain types of algae.

Scientists have discovered that algae could be used to make complex carbohydrate molecules that could be refined into diesel fuel and kerosene. If that is the case, we have essentially an unlimited supply of fuel since algae is an easily renewable resource, especially since algae can grow in marginal conditions! Also, because the diesel fuel and kerosene are derived from a plant source, it also means they will burn much cleaner with no exhaust particulate problems. I can imagine by 2030 the deserts of northern Africa and the Middle East turned into gigantic algae farms that could produce enough biomass material for diesel fuel and kerosene in amounts that would be MANY times what we can produce with crude oil nowadays! =)

2 posted on 08/13/2004 10:56:40 AM PDT by RayChuang88
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: spetznaz

The simple and correct answer is, no one knows.


3 posted on 08/13/2004 10:57:32 AM PDT by Phantom Lord (Advantages are taken, not handed out)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: RayChuang88
I can imagine by 2030 the deserts of northern Africa and the Middle East turned into gigantic algae farms

Your right. Thats where they will be. The envirowackos wouldn't allow such things in America. They would fight any attempts in court under the guise of protecting the environment.

4 posted on 08/13/2004 10:58:59 AM PDT by Phantom Lord (Advantages are taken, not handed out)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: spetznaz; Phantom Lord; RayChuang88

How Long Will the Oil Age Last?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1182542/posts


5 posted on 08/13/2004 10:59:17 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Unlike some people, I have a profile. Okay, maybe it's a little large...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Comment #6 Removed by Moderator

To: spetznaz

I think we'ave already had a thread on this article. In any case, we have passed Peak Easy and are essentially doomed. It's all the fault of Henry Ford and Thomas A. Edison.


7 posted on 08/13/2004 11:04:21 AM PDT by RightWhale (Withdraw from the 1967 UN Outer Space Treaty and establish property rights)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: spetznaz

This is all a moot point. The Fuel cell will start replacing the internatl combustion engine in the next 5 - 10 years, making fuel efficiency much much higher.

Fuel Cells that DON'T run on hydrocarbons will be a reality in 20 years (Bush even talked about it his State of the Union Adress).

Fuel Cell Generators for homes already exist, but nobody's really buying them yet. They'll proliferate too.

Hydrogen power plants? Yup, they're 20 - 30 years away.

Let's use up the oil now before we don't need it, that's how I see it.


8 posted on 08/13/2004 11:04:24 AM PDT by Remember_Salamis (Freedom is Not Free)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: vishnu6

"It's not how much oil is left - a better question is how much oil can we get our hands on at reasonable price?"

I think the question should be, how soon can we send the middle east back to the 7th century?



9 posted on 08/13/2004 11:04:46 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (Ever get the feeling Oswald shot the wrong JFK?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: spetznaz

We will never run out of oil. Proof?

1) reserves have enough for 40 years at current consumption. some countries, like *Iraq*, are pumping at a rate where they wont use up their oil for about 100 years.

2)"Using such technology, companies hope to soon harvest 50 to 60 percent of oil from existing wells, up from today's 35 percen" that alone increases reserves by 50%

3) At $50 / barrel, the oil in the tar sands in Canada become economical at a huge scale, that alone

4) Within 20 years, technology for nuclear and solar would make them more economical than fossil fuels for electricity generation. Actually, nuclear power already *is* the cheapest, we just havent gotten around to exploiting that.
(1970s era nuclear technology has been superceded, but no new plants are built). Getting fossil fuels to stop being used for electricity generation mean that natural gas can instead be used more for transport. it also means that coal gasification (and 300 years supply of energy from that) is a possibility (although that is economical only at higher costs for oil).

Once electricity gets cheaper than oil, the 'switch' to electric cars and electric personal transport will be on. if lithium-polymer batteries got real cheap, and mechanisms to charge up cars (eg induction on roadbeds, so the concept of 'limited range' for electric cars goes away)...

end result:
we could all be running around in hybrid cars that use mainly electricity and hardly any oil... you'd use electricity for your commuting, and oil only for driving in the country where there's no plugs.

And it wont be because gas is $6/gallon, but because the alternatives are better.

Consequently, the 'age of oil' wont end for lack of oil, but as alternatives come to the fore.


10 posted on 08/13/2004 11:06:30 AM PDT by WOSG (George W Bush - Right for our Times!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: spetznaz

As long as it is profitable.


11 posted on 08/13/2004 11:10:11 AM PDT by stuartcr
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Remember_Salamis

"The Fuel cell will start replacing the internatl combustion engine in the next 5 - 10 years, making fuel efficiency much much higher. "

Sorry, but fuel cells are not much more efficient that combustion engines, when such combustion engines are in controlled environments (like used in hybrid cars).
And the hybrid car costs are reasonable TODAY.

FC's are possible, but you dont need to envision drastic new technology to see that we could double our efficiency:
HYBRIDS GET US ABOUT 80% of the fuel efficiency gains that Fuel Cells promise. (eg PEM FC are really about 50% in the field, hybrid deisels in the 40-45% range). And Fuel Cell cost issues wont go away. "20 YEARS" is another way of saying "someday we hope to work it out, but wont happen anytime soon"

So, I think a post-oil or reduced-oil-use scenario doesnt depend on FCs.

JMHO.


12 posted on 08/13/2004 11:12:12 AM PDT by WOSG (George W Bush - Right for our Times!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: RayChuang88

Good point - bio-technology in 50 years would make things very different.


13 posted on 08/13/2004 11:13:32 AM PDT by WOSG (George W Bush - Right for our Times!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: WOSG
"3) At $50 / barrel, the oil in the tar sands in Canada become economical at a huge scale..."Shell Canada just spent a few BILLION dollars for mining and upgrading facilities to produce synthetic crude from tar sands. They are making large profits at $40/barrel.

Story here.

14 posted on 08/13/2004 11:13:44 AM PDT by Boss_Jim_Gettys (This tagline has been removed under threat of legal action by the DNC and Kerry-Edwards campaign.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: RayChuang88

Yep bio diesel in turbo charged engines...


15 posted on 08/13/2004 11:14:38 AM PDT by joesnuffy (Moderate Islam Is For Dilettantes)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: spetznaz

Answered this before.........Just shorter than the age of the BULLET.....


16 posted on 08/13/2004 11:16:10 AM PDT by litehaus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: WOSG
"20 YEARS" is another way of saying

In the engineering world, 20 years = infinity

Which makes the claim of 40 years to commercial hydrogen fusion power = when we get to the end of the rainbow

17 posted on 08/13/2004 11:16:57 AM PDT by RightWhale (Withdraw from the 1967 UN Outer Space Treaty and establish property rights)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: WOSG

But I do see us evolving towards a hydrogen-based economy over the next few decades.


18 posted on 08/13/2004 11:20:26 AM PDT by Remember_Salamis (Freedom is Not Free)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Boss_Jim_Gettys

Production costs are $11- $15 bbl.


19 posted on 08/13/2004 11:26:35 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Phantom Lord
The envirowackos wouldn't allow such things in America. They would fight any attempts in court under the guise of protecting the environment.

I have to disagree on that. Parts of New Mexico and western Texas have enough space for 20 by 20 mile by 6 feet deep algae farms that could grow enough biomass to make diesel fuel and kerosene at amounts that would equal the entire refinery output of the USA! :-) If you've been the Midland, TX area (where our current President grew up) it is pretty much high desert land out there with plentiful space for such huge algae farms.

The algae farms I mentioned in north Africa and the Middle East would essentially make the biomass needed for diesel fuel and kerosene needs of Europe, Africa and parts of Asia.

20 posted on 08/13/2004 11:26:59 AM PDT by RayChuang88
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-70 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson