[WOSG]

We will never run out of oil. Proof?

1) reserves have enough for 40 years at current consumption. some countries, like *Iraq*, are pumping at a rate where they wont use up their oil for about 100 years.

2)"Using such technology, companies hope to soon harvest 50 to 60 percent of oil from existing wells, up from today's 35 percen" that alone increases reserves by 50%

3) At $50 / barrel, the oil in the tar sands in Canada become economical at a huge scale, that alone

4) Within 20 years, technology for nuclear and solar would make them more economical than fossil fuels for electricity generation. Actually, nuclear power already *is* the cheapest, we just havent gotten around to exploiting that.
(1970s era nuclear technology has been superceded, but no new plants are built). Getting fossil fuels to stop being used for electricity generation mean that natural gas can instead be used more for transport. it also means that coal gasification (and 300 years supply of energy from that) is a possibility (although that is economical only at higher costs for oil).

Once electricity gets cheaper than oil, the 'switch' to electric cars and electric personal transport will be on. if lithium-polymer batteries got real cheap, and mechanisms to charge up cars (eg induction on roadbeds, so the concept of 'limited range' for electric cars goes away)...

end result:
we could all be running around in hybrid cars that use mainly electricity and hardly any oil... you'd use electricity for your commuting, and oil only for driving in the country where there's no plugs.

And it wont be because gas is $6/gallon, but because the alternatives are better.

Consequently, the 'age of oil' wont end for lack of oil, but as alternatives come to the fore.

[Boss_Jim_Gettys]

"3) At $50 / barrel, the oil in the tar sands in Canada become economical at a huge scale..."Shell Canada just spent a few BILLION dollars for mining and upgrading facilities to produce synthetic crude from tar sands. They are making large profits at $40/barrel.

Story here.

[Boss_Jim_Gettys]

"...it also means that coal gasification (and 300 years supply of energy from that) is a possibility (although that is economical only at higher costs for oil).

I am certain that direct coal liquefaction would be economical with crude at $45/bbl.

[who_would_fardels_bear]

Where did you get the figures on when tar sands, etc. will become economically viable as the price of a barrel of crude goes up?

I'm very interested in this. I remember back in the 70's that people started talking about tar sands and oil shale when OPEC first started controlling production. I haven't heard about either much since oil prices collapsed.