Posted on 08/13/2004 10:47:51 AM PDT by spetznaz
I especially like how it ends (in the website) ....that the only way an answer will be found is through technology, and time.
Scientists have discovered that algae could be used to make complex carbohydrate molecules that could be refined into diesel fuel and kerosene. If that is the case, we have essentially an unlimited supply of fuel since algae is an easily renewable resource, especially since algae can grow in marginal conditions! Also, because the diesel fuel and kerosene are derived from a plant source, it also means they will burn much cleaner with no exhaust particulate problems. I can imagine by 2030 the deserts of northern Africa and the Middle East turned into gigantic algae farms that could produce enough biomass material for diesel fuel and kerosene in amounts that would be MANY times what we can produce with crude oil nowadays! =)
The simple and correct answer is, no one knows.
Your right. Thats where they will be. The envirowackos wouldn't allow such things in America. They would fight any attempts in court under the guise of protecting the environment.
How Long Will the Oil Age Last?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1182542/posts
I think we'ave already had a thread on this article. In any case, we have passed Peak Easy and are essentially doomed. It's all the fault of Henry Ford and Thomas A. Edison.
This is all a moot point. The Fuel cell will start replacing the internatl combustion engine in the next 5 - 10 years, making fuel efficiency much much higher.
Fuel Cells that DON'T run on hydrocarbons will be a reality in 20 years (Bush even talked about it his State of the Union Adress).
Fuel Cell Generators for homes already exist, but nobody's really buying them yet. They'll proliferate too.
Hydrogen power plants? Yup, they're 20 - 30 years away.
Let's use up the oil now before we don't need it, that's how I see it.
"It's not how much oil is left - a better question is how much oil can we get our hands on at reasonable price?"
I think the question should be, how soon can we send the middle east back to the 7th century?
We will never run out of oil. Proof?
1) reserves have enough for 40 years at current consumption. some countries, like *Iraq*, are pumping at a rate where they wont use up their oil for about 100 years.
2)"Using such technology, companies hope to soon harvest 50 to 60 percent of oil from existing wells, up from today's 35 percen" that alone increases reserves by 50%
3) At $50 / barrel, the oil in the tar sands in Canada become economical at a huge scale, that alone
4) Within 20 years, technology for nuclear and solar would make them more economical than fossil fuels for electricity generation. Actually, nuclear power already *is* the cheapest, we just havent gotten around to exploiting that.
(1970s era nuclear technology has been superceded, but no new plants are built). Getting fossil fuels to stop being used for electricity generation mean that natural gas can instead be used more for transport. it also means that coal gasification (and 300 years supply of energy from that) is a possibility (although that is economical only at higher costs for oil).
Once electricity gets cheaper than oil, the 'switch' to electric cars and electric personal transport will be on. if lithium-polymer batteries got real cheap, and mechanisms to charge up cars (eg induction on roadbeds, so the concept of 'limited range' for electric cars goes away)...
end result:
we could all be running around in hybrid cars that use mainly electricity and hardly any oil... you'd use electricity for your commuting, and oil only for driving in the country where there's no plugs.
And it wont be because gas is $6/gallon, but because the alternatives are better.
Consequently, the 'age of oil' wont end for lack of oil, but as alternatives come to the fore.
As long as it is profitable.
"The Fuel cell will start replacing the internatl combustion engine in the next 5 - 10 years, making fuel efficiency much much higher. "
Sorry, but fuel cells are not much more efficient that combustion engines, when such combustion engines are in controlled environments (like used in hybrid cars).
And the hybrid car costs are reasonable TODAY.
FC's are possible, but you dont need to envision drastic new technology to see that we could double our efficiency:
HYBRIDS GET US ABOUT 80% of the fuel efficiency gains that Fuel Cells promise. (eg PEM FC are really about 50% in the field, hybrid deisels in the 40-45% range). And Fuel Cell cost issues wont go away. "20 YEARS" is another way of saying "someday we hope to work it out, but wont happen anytime soon"
So, I think a post-oil or reduced-oil-use scenario doesnt depend on FCs.
JMHO.
Good point - bio-technology in 50 years would make things very different.
Yep bio diesel in turbo charged engines...
Answered this before.........Just shorter than the age of the BULLET.....
In the engineering world, 20 years = infinity
Which makes the claim of 40 years to commercial hydrogen fusion power = when we get to the end of the rainbow
But I do see us evolving towards a hydrogen-based economy over the next few decades.
Production costs are $11- $15 bbl.
I have to disagree on that. Parts of New Mexico and western Texas have enough space for 20 by 20 mile by 6 feet deep algae farms that could grow enough biomass to make diesel fuel and kerosene at amounts that would equal the entire refinery output of the USA! :-) If you've been the Midland, TX area (where our current President grew up) it is pretty much high desert land out there with plentiful space for such huge algae farms.
The algae farms I mentioned in north Africa and the Middle East would essentially make the biomass needed for diesel fuel and kerosene needs of Europe, Africa and parts of Asia.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.