[wxdawg]

Hi everyone,
Well, this is my first time to post to FR. I have been a lurker for several years...but, tonight I finally decided to register.

That said, I am a meteorologist with NASA here in DC. I have to say I am extremely concerned about the damage we may see in the morning in Port Charlotte, FL. And , of course, the possible casualties. Unfortunately, I remember the aftermath of Andrew...not hearing reports from Homestead for many, many hours. While this storm was not an Andrew, it was almost certainly stronger than Hugo.

I also heard the comment by the caller to NBC 2 in Ft. Myers. I felt very bad for their on-air meteorologist. Hurricane intensity forecasts are still a VERY inexact science. Many of you may remember Hurricane Lili last fall before it hit LA. It was a cat 4, but suddenly (and unexpectedly) decreased in intensity to a cat 1. Today, we saw the opposite occur. Hurricane intensity forecasts must always be taken with a grain of salt...we still do not understand fully how the internal dynamics of a hurricane work.

As far as track forecast goes...I have to say I am not pleased with that either. However, Hurricane warnings and mandatory evac orders were put in place for the Ft. Myers/Pt. Charlotte area on Thursday morning. This is done, again, to account for known error in track forecasts. All research meteorologists know this...I just wish that broadcast ones would emphasize this more than they do...I honestly believe they are afraid to do so because it would make their station not look as "accurate" as the others in the market.

Sorry for the long post...especially for a first one...but just wanted to vent a bit. God bless the residents of FL.

[ApesForEvolution]

Thanks very much for your contribution and expertise...

[Sam Cree]

Welcome aboard, nice post.

[nwctwx]

Good to see someone else with 'wx' in their name. Unfortunately, it looks like you agree with my thoughts about the possible damage in the area surrounding landfall.

[Mr. Jeeves]

Welcome! Genuine expertise from posters is always valuable, because these threads seem to attract a lot of ill-founded speculation.

[Howlin]

I also heard the comment by the caller to NBC 2 in Ft. Myers.

What did the caller say?

[CobaltBlue]

I appreciate your candor. Some meteorologists seem to have an uncanny knack for predicting where hurricanes will go. I am thinking of Nash Roberts, who was famous in New Orleans.

I did a story on him while in college almost 25 years ago, he was getting satellite feed printed out on thermal paper, must have cost a fortune, but he made a mint predicting hurricanes for the oil and gas businesses in the Gulf. He said he walked a fine line, too cautious and the companies lose money, too reckless and they lose lives.

So, when the oil and gas companies shut down rigs, that gets my attention. They don't mess around.

[SC Swamp Fox]

Your first post is long, coherent, on topic, after midnight and properly formatted....

Well done.

Welcome to FreeRepublic.

[topher]

I also heard the comment by the caller to NBC 2 in Ft. Myers. I felt very bad for their on-air meteorologist. Hurricane intensity forecasts are still a VERY inexact science. Many of you may remember Hurricane Lili last fall before it hit LA. It was a cat 4, but suddenly (and unexpectedly) decreased in intensity to a cat 1. Today, we saw the opposite occur. Hurricane intensity forecasts must always be taken with a grain of salt...we still do not understand fully how the internal dynamics of a hurricane work.

As far as Louisiana is concerned, they believe very strongly in prayer. Scientific people may not understand that, but some things can not be explained. Why did Lili go from Cat 4 to Cat 1 in the warm waters of the Gulf.

Of course, jet stream can be a scientific factor, but I believe in the unseen.

There is a very precious College to me that was close to the track of this storm. I am scared to death for them -- and they were at least 10 miles from landfall of the eye.

[Unknown Freeper]

Wxdawg, thank you for the work that you do. And thank you for your first post and the explanation.