Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
Remember, Charley, was A LOT weaker when it hit Cuba. It strengthened very rapidly since it crossed over.
I have to agree about the rebuilding. Our tax dollars and our higher insurance premiums help the people who live in those kinds of areas recover. Irks me no end.
Radar on TWC.. Eyewall went dead across Captiva.
Only report I saw was on the BBC - trees down, roofs rripped off, no casualties, power out in Havana. Localised flooding in the city and outside...... It did hit Havana bang on.
Watching US reports - they act as if Havana or Cuba doesn't exist....
http://www.nbc-2.com/
Click live broadcast.
My husband's on the emergency team, and they're actually talking about deconstructing the team by midnight...if that happens that curfew will also be cancelled.
That was originally designated to keep people from looting homes that had been evacuated.
At least that's what I think is going on.
Hard to say - the overall large ciculation seems to be elongated NNE - I think it will track up towards Orlando and gradually curve ever so slightly more to the NE, but won't reach a full NE direction. It's gotten strong enough that it can influence steering patterns instead of just being driven by them, so it's hard to tell. This storm has been full of slight jogs - it managed to loop around Jamaica earlier.
Nothing on any of my local CBS affiliates (Atlanta, NY, LA).
Careful to all our southern friends. My brother is Jacksonville is battoning down the hatches. They had two tornadoes touch down in Jax yesterday.
Thanks, Stay safe.
The eye over Bokeelia looks spooky...
Isnt that a Cat 5 if they measured 162 mph on the eye?
I'm not there now.. I'm in NH watching it like the rest of you.
Noooooooo not boarded up. We left there the first of May.. but the condo on Fort Meyers beach has storm shutters thank goodness..
I'm more worried about the canal rising.. We're about 8' off the canal..
Going right up the bay, must be pushing alot of water ahead of it.
Eye now directly over Bokeelia.
My cousin just had a baby three wks ago. They live in Largo on Ulmerton Rd. between Belcher and US 19. My aunt talked to her this morning and found that they were a class D so they didn't have to evacuate. Only if it hit category 4 then they'd have to evacuate. Once we found out it changed to a 4, we've not been able to get a hold of them. We're all worried about them.
My husband's aunt lives on Fort Myers Beach. His mom has not been able to get a hold of her either.
I lived in Clearwater for three years and I love that place. I have many many deaf friends there.
My husband and I were supposed to go on vacation to this old beach house off of 4th Ave S in Indian Rocks Beach in two wks. That house probably won't be there or at least damaged. We go there every year. This is so sad.
But it's so sad for all those folks who live down there in the path.
Prayers for everyone in Charley's path.
You aren't wrong. Charlie seems to be keeping his hardest punch very close to the eyewall. This is good overall, because it reduces the damage zone to a 20 mile wide path. Andrew wasn't so considerate. This is one tightly wrapped storm.
That'll be bad news once he transits Florida and hits the Atlantic on the other side. He'll have more energy to reform and become even more dangerous to the Carolinas and points north.
that is funny. a good break from the seriousness...
The eye of a hurricane is creepy. It's absolutely amazing.
162 at flight level equates to 145ish on the ground. Just under Cat 5.
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