Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
I'm outta here, it's late and I have a long day tomorrow. :(
g'night everyone and for those the in the path of Charley, stay safe!
Somewhere around South Beach IIRC.
Same here. Andrew scared the crap out of me. Do you remember the sound of the wind? It was like a freight train amplified 100 times. I couldn't believe the shelter (school) we were in was still standing.
One of the freakiest things about hurricanes, in my opinion, is how fresh and clean the air is afterwards; the sun is shining, the birds are singing, all the greenery that hasn't been ripped up is a gorgeous shade of bright green.
Even if you had a hurricane party the night before and got hammered by the drinking, no hangover because of the low pressure or something.
But you know what? As you're taking a deep breath and loving life, there are people all around you who aren't so lucky, so best to keep it to yourself.
Just a thought.
Our neighborhood armed ourselves (a neighbor of mine lent me his loaded 9mm for a couple of months), and we advertised this fact clearly to anyone who came by. "Looters will be shot" was a commonly seen sign around our parts.. worked pretty well too. Once news reports of a couple of would-be looters getting shot (one in the face) got out, looting virtually stopped.
Checking in from Brevard County. Just got power back on after 4 hours. Had some horrific winds, numerous tree branches down, weird noises from who knows what. Will know more at daylight.
Yes, I know most people are woefully unprepared for any type of disaster (attack, blizzard, ice storm, hurricane, etc.). I don't understand that mentality...especially in a post 9/11 world. Of course, if your house is blown away...there is no amount of prep you can possibly do.
Pres. Bush has to be seen as being a strong leader right now, and caring for those who can't (or wouldn't) care for themselves. If not, the media will spin it big time...as you all know.
My God! What is that a picture of? The only thing that looks to be in one piece is the U-Haul!
Yes, I remember it well. :) I was carrying a shotgun around for a number of days. The people I am talking about are not the ones like you and me. They are the sheep that wouldn't get off their collective asses to do anything to make their own situation any better. I am sure you know the people in your neighborhood who I am talking about.
that is a liquor store...the uhaul is in the middle of whats left of the store
I racked a XX round in my Mossberg 590 in the wee hours of the Northridge earthquake...my father and I were boarding up our family business when two car loads of "low riders" pulled up (at 6am). They quickly made a uturn and sped off.
Very surreal site that morning in LA, no power, large glows and smoke plumes in the North San Fernando Valley.
Also had a Sig on my hip.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 140553
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004
...CHARLEY EXITING FLORIDA...HEADING FOR THE CAROLINAS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA ON THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ON THE NORTH CAROLINA AND
VIRGINIA COASTS NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO CHINCOTEAGUE...INCLUDING
THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM JUPITER INLET
TO JUST SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH FLORIDA IS DISCONTINUED.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.
CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...CHARLEY WILL BE NEARING
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT CHARLEY IS STILL A
HURRICANE AFTER MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER WARM WATER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 993
MB...28.50 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FT IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF CHARLEY CROSSES THE COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO
7 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE REMAINDER OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PATH OF
CHARLEY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL
GEORGIA...SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...30.1 N... 80.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
Yeah, the noise of the wind was something else, not to mention the sounds of heavy debris bouncing off the sides of the house, really scary.
Shocking how everything looked next morning, roads impassable with debris. Traffic lights gone, not just down, but missing, don't know where they went, no street signs in sight even, blown out of the area.
Well, gonna get some sleep, I guess.
I was completely unprepared for it also. The day before it hit, saturday, I was at the Lollapalooza concert at Bayfront Park. Monday after the storm passed, I got my Jeep CJ-7, some chain and started pulling the pine trees out of the road so people could get in and out of our development. I then drove up to broward county with some friends and picked up groceries. On the way back, we heard one of the big catering companies, Signature Gardens, were giving away all the meat they had in their freezers. We went by, picked up enough for the whole neighborhood, and had a hell of a BBQ that night.
It still has a very nice circulation. The eye was pretty ripped apart over land. If the stronger convection can wrap around the center again, it will have an easier time strengthening.
It will slowly strengthen, but will not end up looking anything like it did before hitting FL.
It is jogging more northerly than NE at this time and should basically parallel the SE coast for a while.
I was wondering earlier this week if we would just see a conveyer belt of these things all season. The way the trough has persisted I haven't completely disregarded the notion.
Let's hope TD 5 goes a bit north and tracks across Cuba lengthwise.
Rather suprised it is still a mid strength Cat 1....thought it would come off the coast at 75 or 80mph rather than 85mph. Very tight circulation still..and a lot of warm water ahead. Defintely can see it being a Cat 2 by landfall later today.
Interesting. I was tripping on Acid or Mescaline and drinking during a hurricane at the Philly Folk Festival many years ago. We had a one piece tent and the winds were lifting the floor up even with five of us sitting on it. It was wild.
I remember looking at all the other tents blown down in the mud the next day but I had NO HANGOVER. It was funny watching the other people wake up in mud holes under their collapsed tents. I laughed my **s off.
It held together remarkably well over the state IMO. I was surprised to see sustained winds near 80mph with gusts over 100 in Orlando after it had been over land for nearly 6 hours. That fact alone helps me to believe that there is a localized area near Punta Gorda that is basically gone.
It does appear to be restrengthening again.
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