Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
We'll be leaving together.....I have a friend in Lynchburg that will take us all!
Likely.
It's a little cooler after dark, but if it slows down (instead of speeding up) then it will definitely get back up a Cat or two.
I'm watching Shep on FNC and he keeps asking about Pine Island but no word yet. When I was watching TWC it looked like the surge was less than expected but Jim was not close to the islands.
AAABEST lives in the area and I've been calling him but no answer yet.
What are you talking about?
It was at least 127 MPH........you think that's small?
0300Z (11 pm EDT) forecast track update. Looks like they've shifted it very slightly west...second landfall appears to be estimated between Georgetown and Myrtle Beach, north of Cape Romain, in about 15 hours (call it 1400 EDT tomorrow). Then on up into interior NC, back over the Chesapeake, and northward to dump some rain on NYC.
At the angle they are showing it, it looks like it's going to rake every inch of the South Carolina coast with something. Beaufort/Charleston will get the west side of it, Myrtle Beach will get the east side of it after landfall. Depending on what the west side of the whole mess looks like, we might even get drenched here in Columbia.
}:-)4
My aunt has a mobile home in Port Orange right below Daytona, thankfully she's up here visiting. Doubt her home is there anymore.
The AREA of absolute maximum winds was quite small. Not the strength of max winds.
Yes, Port Orange got clobbered, but don't be so pessimistic.
Most houses are probably ok.
The eye (most extreme winds) is about 5-10 miles north.
(That's not much. but every mile helps.)
Wilmington here!
I think you're wrong; and I'm betting the morning light proves me right.
My niece just moved into a brand new house June 15th!! I have friends over on Figure Eight.
Stay safe!
0300Z (11 pm EDT) forecast track update from Intellicast...I don't think anybody along the coast is going to get spared a lashing from this one. It's going to move in at a very shallow angle and might stay close enough to give Charleston and Beaufort a rough ride (at least a lot of rain) before hitting further north. If I read that right, and if their guess is correct, I wouldn't want to be near Pawley's Island in about twelve hours.
Of course, between their 0800 EDT and 1400 EDT forecasts today, they moved the storm track over SC east over 100 miles. This morning they had it coming right up I-95 or just west; six hours later, it was going to come ashore at the SC/NC state line. For all the technology and expertise they have at their disposal, forecasting these monsters sure isn't a very exact science!
}:-)4
Well, if you figure that it was a 2 when it left Cuba and was a 4 when it came on land, I'm worried.
We just had a lull....now it's actin like it wants to start
again....which it sounds like it is....geez, at least the house is still here....everybody's OK...also if Sprint needs me to be a spokesman for their satellite PCM-CIA card,
it is even workin in this hurricane ....this freeper HIGHLY
recommends it!!
Read back and I was arguing the exact same thing to people who felt there wasn't really much damage.
The area of the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM category 4 winds was very small, relatively speaking, compared to other Cat 4/5 hurricanes. That was measured by recon, and is reflected in the HRD analysis map at the link I posted.
There's still going to be enormous damage because you had hurricane force winds going through Orlando, etc. But it explains why Ft. Myers damage isn't really that bad, etc. There's obviously horrendous damage in Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, etc.
Will do!Just keeping an eye on the track.When Fran came through here it stayed at the mouth of the Cape Fear for the longest time.Glad this storm is moving fast!
Yes, creeks and ponds are at the overflow mark right now. At Fran - Crabtree overflowed until Glenwood Avenue itself was a river! Came in the lower level of the mall. Had forgotten that part of the Fran Nightmare!!!
Are you going to evacuate? I am thinking of heading West to the Mtns of NC for the weekend - enough of this nasty stuff!
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