Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
Let me know if you see anything on damage estimates. Meanwhile, I've got to get ready for Charley up here on the Chesapeake Bay. If I get hit twice by the same hurricane after the one last year I'm going to be pissed.
Thank you all so much!
What a blessing to have Freeper buddies to turn to at moments like this, isn't it?
Have you found another radar - other than St Petersburg?
The one I've been looking at is about out of range.
J'ville, perhaps?
LOL.........I know you are.
I haven't heard a word about Sanibel; I did hear earlier on it was practically empty.
Fort Myers is on TWC now.
Punta Gorda 127 MPH.
Today's storm reminded me of Floyd the other year. Monster storm could have swallowed Florida by moving across the state. Everyone on the east coast evac'd to central FL and here. If Floyd had traversed the state, we would have been toast. IOW--always cover your backside during storm season in the Sunshine State.
;o)
Say Hello to Tropical Storm Danielle.
Howlin - how are ya? This is so eerie. I asked earlier - do you or yours have big trees around your homes? Are any of you going to make haste to get out of the way if Charley heads over the Raleigh area as it once appeared to be doing? The winds may still hit us and we are so waterlogged. A pond near me is ready to overflow with the next batch of rain - flooding a street and homes nearby. But it's the trees!!! Those towering pines near my house that have me ready to split. What about you?
I do NOT know; I have big trees, yes.
I wasn't here during Fran, but I don't think it will be that bad, do you?
How high were the winds in Fran?
I think you mean Dunedin. I don't live there but have a friend who does.
sheesh--seriously thinking about leaving the boards in the windows until November.
160 homes destroyed on Captiva/Sanibel. I don't think my place or boat made it.
I don't know what I would do with all of you!!!
LOL! Yep. THAT looks right....MY spelling didn't!
How did that city fare? I hope and pray your friend's OK!!
Nully, my niece told me earlier that she heard that, but I didn't have any proof, so I didn't want to say it.
How do you know.
And I am SO sorry if it turns out to be true.
Just a note: The Punta Gorda Anemometer failed after that gust. The pressure fell very rapidly over the following 30 minutes, that tells me that much stronger winds likely hit the location.
It is highly likely that portions of Punta Gorda took the brunt of an isolated wind maximum that was close to the 145mph stated in the afternoon advisory.
Just because no reporting stations have reported Cat 4 wind speeds does not mean they did not happen. There is something very eerie in the fact that certain towns are yet to 'check in.'
The storm was deepening so fast that there is almost certainly a swath somewhere near landfall that was completely destroyed.
Fran had gusts 70+ at RDU.
I agree; if it hadn't hit land when it did, no telling how big it would have been.
Oh geeezzz...
Actually, my parents & aunts & uncles got a direct hit from Hugo. Even in the middle of the storm, the telephones worked. The power was another matter....
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