I completely agree with your analysis. If Sadr is not unequivocally defeated, Allawi's attempts for a stable government will likewise be defeated. Additionally the U.S. mission in Iraq will be defeated, and, I am afraid, Kerry will be our next president.
A very discouraged Bush supporter.
The get tough policy of "leveling" the mosques won't work because it will inflame the Islamic world and lead to the secession of the south and thus civil war. The half-way policy of "fine tuning" via negotiation and balancing acts will fail but for other reasons. It fails because it only serves to draw us deep into the deeper into the Middle Eastern world of intrigue and byzantine twists and turns. Do you think that American politicians and state department whiz kids can master and thrive in this word? I don't
What then is the solution? The solution is to never get into these nation building crusades in the first place. Now, that we are in....let's make the best of it by declaring victory, turning the keys over the Alawi and getting out.
As a conservative historian, perhaps you can point to a major battle in history in which the defeated forces were not given a final opporunity to surrender once they were surrounded.