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TWO MILLION WARNED OFF WEST FLORIDA COAST AS "SCARY" CHARLEY GROWS
Miami Herald ^ | 08/13/2004 | Brendan Farrington

Posted on 08/13/2004 6:56:12 AM PDT by JesseHousman

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To: Unknown Freeper

If you're on Bellsouth.net (which is where I am), go to http://home.bellsouth.net/news then look on the right side of the page.

Each of the other services has a similar portal page. Check on the "News" link from that page to get access. The feed is in RealPlayer.


41 posted on 08/13/2004 8:16:26 AM PDT by mhking
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To: traumer

LOL. Methinks this is what NOAA would look like if after all the class-action lawyers sue for losing their homes on the Gold Coast.

Communism is so useful--look at all those high tech computers and maps!


42 posted on 08/13/2004 8:18:12 AM PDT by sully777 (Our descendants will be enslaved by political expediency and expenditure)
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To: JesseHousman
I have a serious question for those in SW Florida:

Is your part of the Gulf Coast *really* that incapable of absorbing the impact of a Category 2/3 hurricane, and one that has a pretty fast forward speed (up to 20 mph at landfall) at that.

Two million called to evacuate? Flooding in downtown Tampa?

The only thing I can think of that can pose a serious problem is the storm surge, since the landfall point will likely be on the eastern side of the storm and the high forward speed adds a bit, too, but a 110-plus MPH storm that is racing through the landfall area (and will clear out just as quickly) isn't exactly extreme, wind-wise or rain-wise.

A Cat 2/3 (out of 5) storm should cause panic, say, in Maine (where hurricane preparedness is not even an issue) not along the Gulf coast (where it should be a way of life).

I daresay those in SE Louisiana, where I'm originally from, or Houston, where I now live, would be concerned but not "panicked" by this "scary, scary" storm.

What would they do if something like Camille plowed into SW Florida? There would be nothing left of the place!

43 posted on 08/13/2004 8:23:59 AM PDT by LincolnLover (LSU Tigers: GEAUXING for Another National Title in 2004!)
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To: small_l_libertarian
I'm also in Tampa, but up in Carrollwood Village. If I were one block from the river, I wouldn't be there. Good luck.

When I first moved to Tampa, I met an elderly gentlement who had been in Tampa during the 1921 hurricane. He said that everything downtown was under water to the second floor. He seemed to have been quite affected by it. This isn't going to be pretty.

I hope my home can withstand 120 mile per hour gusts cause they're comin'.

44 posted on 08/13/2004 8:29:22 AM PDT by Rum Tum Tugger
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To: LincolnLover
Storm surge is the real risk - alot of housing is less than 10' above sea-level. However, everyone seems to have very short-term memory on how fast these things can go from cat 2 to cat 4. Remember Opal and Andrew.
45 posted on 08/13/2004 8:30:44 AM PDT by al_again
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To: dirtboy
Looks like it's moving almost due north now. Per 11 AM advisory - Due North at 18 MPH. Winds still 110 but Central Pressure has dropped from 970 to 965 MB.

LOoks like Tampa is in line for a direct hit if this thing doesn't move.

46 posted on 08/13/2004 8:31:46 AM PDT by commish (Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
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To: Izzy Dunne

It looks like it's turning a little to the east. Then again, I'm probably not very good at reading these things.


47 posted on 08/13/2004 8:31:58 AM PDT by Snowy (Heaven is Reagan country now)
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To: All

http://www.970wfla.com/jacor-common/streaming_disclaimer.html
(Currently: Live Audio News in Regards to Evacs/Etc.)

More streaming weather-related info:

http://www.irlp.net/
http://www.voipwx.net/ - Skywarn / Hurricane Spotter Network

Tampa Area News Stations:
http://www.wtsp.com - Live stream local news
http://www.wfts.com
ttp://www.wftx.com
http://www.baynews9.com - Live streaming radar
http://www.sptimes.com
http://www.naplesnews.com
http://www.news-press.com
http://www.herald-tribune.com

Webcams:
http://www.naplesnet.com/webcam/webcam_index.htm

Other:
http://hurricanecity.com/ - thanks mhking


48 posted on 08/13/2004 8:32:54 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: LincolnLover
The Problem is that the Barrier Islands are over-loaded with houses and Condominiums at a Maximum of 3-4 ft above sea level. Even the mainland is only 5-10 ft above sea-level.

Especially in Tampa - St. Pete area you now have a cat2-3 storm moving a 10-16FT Storm Surge into a Bay that Opens to the South--- The Water will come in and pile up. Almost all the newer housing and all Condo's are built to withstand the winds, but wind doesn;t matter if the whole thing is under water.

49 posted on 08/13/2004 8:36:22 AM PDT by commish (Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
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To: Snowy
commish: LOoks like Tampa is in line for a direct hit if this thing doesn't move.

Snowy: It looks like it's turning a little to the east. Then again, I'm probably not very good at reading these things.

Geometry is EVERYTHING now. Unlike a hurricane approaching the Atlantic coast from the east, the "dirty" side of the storm will be to the south of landfall instead of to the north. If Charley goes inland south of Tampa Bay, the worst winds will be out of the west and that area will be spared the worst of the storm surge (but someone else further to the south will get drilled).

Worst case - Charley glances off St. Pete and then runs right up the coast - then a large stretch of NW Florida will get bad storm surge, and the worst will get pushed up into Tampa Bay. And that's only a tracking difference of about 20-30 miles.

50 posted on 08/13/2004 8:37:35 AM PDT by dirtboy (Forget Berger's socks - has ANYONE searched his skin folds for classified documents?)
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To: G-dzilla
SE St. Petersburg. I'm staying...

Good luck. If Charley comes straight into the Bay, you could be isolated there for 12-18 hours. I hope you're not too close to the water. I have some friends that have a house right on the Intercoastal Waterway facing Treasure Island. I'm hoping for the best, but they could get wet.

51 posted on 08/13/2004 8:40:41 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: LincolnLover
I have a serious question for those in SW Florida:

Very good question. I also wonder about those who build in California on the edge of a cliff and on stilts no less. They then scratch their heads when they see pictures on television of their houses sliding down the cliff.

I have in-laws 6 to 7 miles from the water in Sarasota. My mother-in-law is 'defecating masonry' right now.

52 posted on 08/13/2004 8:41:32 AM PDT by Snowy (Heaven is Reagan country now)
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To: LincolnLover
It's been a long time since Tampa has had a direct hit. Most hurricanes don't follow a track that takes them into the west coast of Florida, so people got compacent and builders took big risks. It's analogous to all the "view homes" being built in high fire danger areas of California.

Today, the bill is coming due.

53 posted on 08/13/2004 8:43:59 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves
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To: dirtboy
Geometry is EVERYTHING now.

I agree. I learned this trick in art class. I was looking at the animated picture closer to the beginning of this thread. Now, get a piece of paper, or any other straight edge. Line it up with the moving eye of the storm. My paper slants to the right (east). Completely scientific. ;-)

54 posted on 08/13/2004 8:45:28 AM PDT by Snowy (Heaven is Reagan country now)
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To: Snowy

it it remains a cat 2, and unless she lives in the flood plain (at 5-7 miles from the ocean, she is far clear of the storm surge), she should be OK. biggest threat would be winds, hopefully she has no big trees near the house.


55 posted on 08/13/2004 8:46:13 AM PDT by oceanview
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To: dirtboy

Unfortunately, I think we can expect to see some photos of heavy damage to the Tampa area. The storm surge from Charley is going to wipe some buildings from their foundations. Like you noted, it's the direction this storm is headed that is going to maximize that threat.


56 posted on 08/13/2004 8:50:53 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: oceanview

It should have been upgraded to Cat3 at 11am IMO, not sure what the NHC is thinking. They are running off old information (8 am dropsonde still).


57 posted on 08/13/2004 8:52:51 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: RightOnTheLeftCoast
Bush's fault.

Idiot.

58 posted on 08/13/2004 8:59:03 AM PDT by Mini-14
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To: LincolnLover
Is your part of the Gulf Coast *really* that incapable of absorbing the impact of a Category 2/3 hurricane, and one that has a pretty fast forward speed (up to 20 mph at landfall) at that.

Two million called to evacuate? Flooding in downtown Tampa?

The only thing I can think of that can pose a serious problem is the storm surge, since the landfall point will likely be on the eastern side of the storm and the high forward speed adds a bit, too, but a 110-plus MPH storm that is racing through the landfall area (and will clear out just as quickly) isn't exactly extreme, wind-wise or rain-wise.

As I noted in an earlier post, I have a friend with a house in western St. Petersburg (actually an area called South Pasadena). I've been there twice. It's beautiful, but it's also about two feet above sea level, and it faces the Intercoastal Waterway. There are a lot of people in similar areas, or in condos on the beach.

For years they have talked about how the whole area was just ripe for a massive disaster. Evacuation is constricted from the beaches and Pinellas County. The highest elevation in Pinellas County is only 46 feet above sea level. There are thousands of homes on landfill islands that are at the water's edge. And the storm surge piles up into the shallows around the Bay. So the downtown, waterfront, big home areas are particularly vulnerable to water that gets pushed into the Bay.

I don't remember the year, but a few years ago a tropical storm literally developed right at the mouth of the Bay. Virtually no warning; suddenly 35-45 knot winds pushing the water straight into the Bay. Most of the coastal St. Petersburg neighborhoods were cut off from "mainland" Pinellas County.

With that little bit of acquaintance with the area, I've always worried about what a full-strength hit would do to it. Charley may be just strong enough to give us an idea of how bad it could get, without actually getting that bad. Tonight will be very interesting. Of course, if Charley decides to come in a little south of the Bay, everything gets reversed. Bradenton and Sarasota and Venice could get hit hard, but they don't have the Bay to worry about, and the wind direction will push the water out of the Bay. And then everybody will comment on how lucky they were, and they still won't know how bad it could get.

The next 12 hours will be interesting, to say the least.

59 posted on 08/13/2004 9:01:31 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: nwctwx

it will be upgraded.

its wobbling to the east now - closer to Ft Myers.


60 posted on 08/13/2004 9:03:00 AM PDT by oceanview
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