Posted on 08/11/2004 8:19:21 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
China revamps top military command Beijing appoints two anti-aircraft carrier warfare experts to head the PLA in moveto prepare for war over Taiwan Strait
By Ching Cheong
HONG KONG - China recently appointed two experts well versed in anti-aircraft carrier warfare to head the People's Liberation Army General Staff Department (GSD) in yet another step to prepare the country for war over the Taiwan Strait.
Lieutenant-General Xu Qiliang and Vice-Admiral Wu Shengli, deputy commanders of the Shenyang and Guangzhou Greater Military Regions (GMRs), respectively, were named Deputy Chiefs of Staff last month.
The former was also commander of the Air Force Division of the Shenyang GMR while the latter was commander of the South Sea Fleet.
In China, the GSD is responsible for planning and executing war plans. It is currently headed by General Liang Guanglie, an expert in amphibious and landing attacks.
The two new deputy chiefs of staff are involved deeply in war preparations against Taiwan. Both had spent a large part of their careers in air force and navy units based in Fujian, the province nearest Taiwan.
They replace three incumbent deputy chiefs who reached the age of retirement - 65 - this year.
With them on board, the GSD will be packed with officials with strong backgrounds in anti-Taiwan warfare.
Their appointment ends a tradition in place since 1976 of the army dominating the GSD. This reflects the change in military thinking that accords a greater role to the other services.
Both are taking part in the current Dongshan military exercise codenamed 'Liberation No. 2' - as deputy commanders, assisting Gen Liang, the commander.
Their participation suggests that anti-carrier warfare is an important component of the massive exercise as both are experts in this area.
According to sources, since the 1996 missile crisis over the Taiwan Strait, during which the United States sent two aircraft carrier strike groups (CSG) to the area, China has been working on the tactics required to neutralise a CSG.
Since then, the PLA has conducted seven major exercises simulating the sinking of an aircraft carrier. Codenamed 'Project 968', these were headed by Lt-Gen Xu, with Vice-Adm Wu as assistant.
The latter is also the most senior serviceman to have visited a CSG. Last year, he called on the US Pacific Fleet CSG in his capacity as commander of the South Sea Fleet.
According to the sources, as an important aim of the Dongshan drill is to ensure air control, the PLA has to take into consideration American intervention.
Seizing air control means that China will have to be able to take on both the Taiwanese air force as well as fighters from American CSGs.
One source estimated that China would have to be prepared to take on at least four CSGs in order to ensure air control.
This explains why Lt-Gen Xu and Vice-Adm Wu were sent to the GSD. In fact, this is but the latest move in the overall restructuring of the top command structure to ready the military for a possible armed conflict over the Taiwan Strait.
The most important move was announced last month - the Chinese Communist Party's Central Military Commission, in which ultimate control of the military resides, will be expanded to co-opt the commanders of the air, naval and missile forces.
The Fourth Plenum of the CCP Central Committee sitting this autumn will be asked to endorse the move.
According to the pro-Beijing Wen Wei Po newspaper in Hongkong, which first announced this expansion, national unification called for these recent changes in the military's leadership structure so there would be an integrated approach to any war with Taiwan.
Ping!
Expect trouble with China: but not this year. 2007 looks more likely.
You must remember, Chinese domestic politics aren't static. From what I've seen, it seems that former President Jiang Ziamen (who remains commander of the Armed Forces) is deliberately underminding his successor, Hu Jintao. 2007 would be the perfect time for China to strike.
Remember this too when you observe other Chinese actions (most notably their likely effort to drive up world commodity prices): who would China want in the White House when they attack Taiwan?
Ching Cheong Ping!
I had that for dinner last night...
...action & re-action...fundamental law of physics...
I agree that power struggle is under way in China. And Jiang is more keen on taking on Taiwan. He is more bullish and expansionistic of the two, contrary to his appearance of an hapless old idiot.
I don't think the Chinese can control the Taiwan Strait or the airspace over it for the time required to mount an invasion. All the US has to achieve is denial, while the Chinese must maintain control, which is a far higher standard. The US can use mines, SSNs and antiship missiles of all descriptions on the invasion flotilla and its logistical tail, which if disrupted at any point in the first week will mean the doom of the expeditionary force. The worst scenario for the Chinese would be if the US let the first wave come ashore and chopped off the tail behind it. The amount of ammo, fuel and supplies needed by the landing force is enormous. Look at what nearly happened to the RN in the Falklands against an Argentinian airforce operating at the limit of its range. But in this case, it will be the Chinese trying to cross a body of water in the teeth of the greatest naval force in history. They can't cross unless they can guarantee the USN won't intervene. Maybe if there's a President they can do a deal with before invading, but not before.
The only thing the ChiComs can do is launch a bunch of ballistic missiles at Taiwan. Have no doubt we have a sub on patrol at all times in the straits, and a few more that could be there in a day or two. We also have mines (actually topedoes) that can be deployed by aircraft.
As to airpower, the ChiComs can't take out all anti-aircaft weapons. Taiwan is a rugged mountainous area, and I'm sure many of their AA weapons are in deep bunkers so they survive. We also can back them up from Okinowa and the Phillipines.
Oh, and they would take some of the heat off our cariers.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.