Posted on 08/11/2004 9:15:38 AM PDT by Bald Eagle777
Asia Pacific News »
Taiwanese soldiers on manoeuvres
Time is GMT + 8 hours Posted: 11 August 2004 1742 hrs
Taiwan stages war games as report shows China would win in six days
TAIPEI : Taiwan's armed forces staged a drill simulating an invasion by rival China, as a military computer exercise showed Taiwanese troops could withstand a similar onslaught for just six days.
The scenario of the maneuver, the first of two rehearsals for a major exercise to be held on August 25, was that Taiwan troops had failed to hold off an amphibious landing by Chinese forces, TVBS cable television showed.
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As Taiwan troops tried to stop simulated Chinese forces from pushing further inland, a fleet of US-made Cobra gunships fired laser-guided Hellfire missiles while howitzers and tanks fired on targets.
China, which has some 600 ballistic missiles aimed at the island, has itself been staging large-scale military exercises on Dongshan island off its southeastern coast.
The drill came as Defense Minister Lee Jye confirmed a report that in a recent computer-simulated exercise, Taiwanese troops were wiped out 130 hours after the People's Liberation Army (PLA) started invading.
The Apple Daily said the blitz was simulated as happening in 2006, the year when Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian is scheduled to push for a new constitution, which Beijing has warned against.
After the first day of the Chinese "attacks", Taiwan's airports, bunkers, harbours and key government buildings were destroyed by extensive bombings featuring 700 ballistic missiles.
The simulated battles ended when the PLA captured the capital Taipei in the sixth day of the attacks.
Since pro-independence Chen was re-elected in March Beijing has stressed its long-standing vow to take Taiwan by force should the island try to declare formal independence.
The two sides split in 1949 at the end of a civil war.
- AFP
(Don't forget they have about 50-60 operational subs that will be employed to sink any US CVBG in the region and discourage any US "interference"). Could the whole shooting match be over in 6 days ?
I don't think we would go to war with China over anything less than a Chinese invasion of Hawaii.
I would like to know where to go to get a detailed picture of China's amphibious warfare capabilities. In the sixty years since Normandy people seem to have forgotten just how involved, Murphy's law prone and vulnerable major amphibious operations are. Let us keep in mind just how much farther the Island of Fomosa is from the Chinese Mainland than the Normandy coast from England. I suspect the value of those 700 ballistic missiles is spectacularly over-rated. 700 conventional warheads? Are we talking JDAM or Scud accuracy here? How many landing ships do the Chinese have? A million soldiers can't swim across the straits. There has to be corresponding sealift capability. How many refueling aircraft? Heavy bombers? Could they sustain round-the-clock air superiority over Taiwanese airspace? What are the likely beachhead sites? How defensible?
China Rapidly Modernizes for War With U.S.
deals primarily with striking power, not sea lift, but it does give a picture of the amount of effort they are putting in. And the Chinese have lots of experience in organizing large groups of people. Several thousand years of it, in fact.
It depends on who our president is.
We have (and adjust) our conventional force levels (esp. naval power) in that region sufficient to assist Taiwan in her defense, should she request it.
Just a couple of our fast-attack subs would be enough to seriously blunt a full blown sea-borne assault.
I don't care who is in office, I just don't think we would go to war with China...I think Taiwan would be expendable.
After Taiwan, who's next? Korea? PI? Indonesia? Austalia? Panama?
Yes that's a pretty wide anti-tank ditch they got there.
90 miles of open water without control of the air?
They'd be fishing ChiComms out of the water for years.
One never knows, they are a pretty big country. I just remember after Tianamen Square, there was a Chinese official that said something to the effect that you shouldn't mess with the largest nation in the world. As opposed to us and the rest of the west, they are an extremely patient people. 20 yrs of prep would mean little to them, while we couldn't wait 20 months. I think we would have to resort to nukes if it got really serious, and that would probably be the end of everything.
That's what Chamberlain and Frenchie said about:
1) The Rhineland
2) The Sudetenland
3) The rest of Czehkoslovokia
4) Austria
By the time Hitler crossed over into Poland, it was much too late.
That's true, so.
One never knows, they are a pretty big country. I just remember after Tianamen Square, there was a Chinese official that said something to the effect that you shouldn't mess with the largest nation in the world. As opposed to us and the rest of the west, they are an extremely patient people. 20 yrs of prep would mean little to them, while we couldn't wait 20 months. I think we would have to resort to nukes if it got really serious, and that would probably be the end of everything.
Like I said, a million soldiers cannot swim the Taiwan Straits. You need landing ships to carry the men, tanks, vehicles, equiment, ammunition, supplies, fuel, etc. You need to have escorts. Especially you need to have round-the-clock control of the skies. And then there's this little matter of the weather. Eisenhower had all of that. Even so, if Hitler had been awakened and released his Panzer reserves to strike at the beachheads, D-Day would have been a bloody debacle. To invade Taiwan would involve a similar-sized seaborne effort over a ten-times greater distance.
All that is probably true, but I still don't think we would go to war with China over Taiwan, regardless of who is in office.
Although dated, this article from 2001 is one overview of China’s amphibious options, with a likely scenario presented; it's worth a quick read:
http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2001/Autumn/art3-au1.htm
Here is a link to some basic info on some of their amphibious capabilities that they are working round the clock to amass:
http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/amphibious/default.asp
They have an amphibious tank (Types 62,63 & 63A) which, however limited as a main battle tank, is an interesting concept and may prove useful to them in a staged assault on Taiwan.
Here a picture of this small seaborne nuisance:
http://www.sinodefence.com/army/tank/type63a.asp
Miecellaneous link on Chinese Naval assets, as estimated by Global Security (other public sources exist, Jane's, periscpoe, etc.)http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/navy.htm
Some analysts have contended that in addition to official Chinese naval assets, their (paramilitary) "fishing" fleet (sometimes well armed / "dual use") and civilian fleets will be pressed into service for a massive sealift capability for men and materiel. If that theory holds true (assuming that they can have reasonable air, naval and submarine superiority in the Straits), then their logistical element expands almost exponentially. I think it would be a safe calculation that in a phased attack, follow-on forces would be provided en masse via this "civilian" flotilla having been pressed into service.
Generally, it is a well known fact that the Chinese have undertaken a spectacular arms buildup in recent years, with particular attention paid to force modernization with an additional emphasis on amphibious and submarine capabilities. They have improved their missile guidance systems (with American help and technology some have argued), and will continue to do so utilizing all available means. This is an exhaustive subject and could stand a several thousand page detailed analysis. Yet, suffice to say, they clearly have an order of battle in mind and well prepared "on the shelf" should their leaders actually put to practice what they have been threatening (military force as a viable counter to Taiwanese claims on independence, etc). The alarming amphibious drills and rehearsals of late do not necessarily imply an impending operation, but they may well "roll the dice" when they feel sufficiently prepared. There will only be one way to find out when they have reached that point. It will be a time of their choosing, not ours. Victory will be determined, as always, in any battle joined.
They have been modernizing their submarine force with reckless abandon. It is unlikely that their boats would be used against a US CVBG in a search and destroy operation in the deep blue sea. It is more likely that they would be used in three ways; 1) in a support role for the initial amphibious assault, taking out any hostile ships challenging the Chinese onslaught; 2) as a screening force to protect slower follow-on forces that will transit the Taiwan strait in official Naval and civilian vessels commandeered en masse for purposes of resupplying the main assault AND all subjugated outlying islands; 3) as a blocking force at both ends of the the Taiwan Strait. When dealing with any nearby US aircraft carrier(s), their subs would most likely be employed in an ambush role, at zero to 3 or 4 knots. A carrier battle group would be well advised to use our standoff capability, and have a healthy contingent of subs screening each CVBG, with the mission of sinking all ChiCom boats as quickly as possible.
My navy friend refers to the "Million Man Swim". Do they dare risk it?
OK
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