I would not rely on online polls, which this seems to be.
It's an online poll, but presumably AOL has good control over vote "fraud". What remains, however, is any bias between the online community and RL likely voters.
I wouldn't rely on it either, but I wouldn't treat it like other online polls. It has a larger sample size and much better security than any other online poll I've seen. But seriously, if you want an accurate straw poll, wait for the movie theater straw poll (I think it's Lowe's) which always gets the winner right.