Posted on 08/09/2004 9:58:52 PM PDT by FairOpinion
Analysts say it's wrong to think that old intelligence is irrelevant because Al-Qaeda works patiently within a long timeframe
IS THE threat real? Or is the heightened anti-terrorist alert in the United States and Britain an over-reaction to outdated information?
The decision of both countries to take increased, visible security measures is absolutely right, says the Aegis Intelligence Report.
This is because of Washington's legal obligation to warn the public and London's need to provide public reassurance, it points out.
Last week, the US raised its security alert to the second-highest level - Code Orange - in the financial services sectors in Washington DC, New York and Newark after receiving intelligence reports that were specific about the intended terrorist targets.
The buildings mentioned as targets in the reports are the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington, Prudential Financial in northern New Jersey and Citigroup and the New York Stock Exchange in the Big Apple.
The US warning and change in alert status came after a number of breakthroughs in recent weeks and months.
Most notable of these was the nabbing in Pakistan on July 13 of Muhammad Naeem Noor Khan, a 25-year-old computer engineer with combat experience in Afghanistan. His arrest revealed a large amount of computer and documentary evidence.
The material showed that Al-Qaeda members had, even before 9/11, conducted sophisticated and extensive reconnaissance of the various financial institutions.
The world's media, which publicised the alert and then slammed it as a political stunt by the Bush administration, came in for criticism from Aegis for distorting the threat situation.
Says Aegis: 'It is very easy for those unfamiliar with the world of counter-terrorism, such as the press, to assume that new, specific information about terrorist attacks is automatically urgent.
'Similarly, it is easy to assume that old information is irrelevant to the current threat climate.'
Both assumptions are wrong - and both have been prevalent in press reporting and comments in the past few days, it adds.
'Commentators have pointed out that the information pre-dated 9/11 and have suggested that the threat is therefore exaggerated,' says Aegis. 'They, like the scaremongers, also miss the point entirely.'
The point is that Al-Qaeda operates within a long timescale and to refer to 'outdated' targeting information is to misunderstand the way terrorists work.
What are the implications?
First, Aegis says that Al-Qaeda attacks in the US and Britain are less likely in the short term - thanks to the raising of the alert status in the US and the British arrests. These acts have put the terrorists on the defensive for now, it says.
It notes that any Al-Qaeda terrorists still at large in the US are far more likely to lie low or are making plans to disappear as they rightly suspect that the authorities would be extracting investigative leads from Muhammad Naeem Noor Khan.
Says Aegis: 'The problem with a tightly guarded planning structure, clearly, is that it requires the terrorists to put all their eggs in one basket. If the basket is found, the damage is very great.'
Second, the financial services sector and the specific buildings mentioned will remain at threat for the foreseeable future, 'perhaps for years'.
'Al-Qaeda operates on a very long and flexible timescale and will persist until it has managed to attack a chosen target,' says Aegis, using the World Trade Center building in New York as a case in point.
The building was first attacked by Al-Qaeda with a massive van bomb in 1993 that killed several people. The terrorists then waited eight years to deliver the killer punch.
Concludes Aegis: 'The threat will not disappear, and the trick will be in maintaining defences over a prolonged period.'
How right they are. It has been less than three years, and many have already almost forgotten 9-11-2001.
I looked up Aegis Intelligence, since it's their report the article was discussing.
Here is their site:
http://www.aegis.sageweb.co.uk/default.htm
More about Aegis & info about the terrorists from another article:
New face of terror
Young, clubbing South Asians in UK
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/topstories/story/0,4386,266148,00.html
"In an update of the terrorist threat after the recent arrests of suspects in several countries, the authoritative London-based defence and security consultancy Aegis Defence Services reveals the profile of some of the young men who are involved in terrorist operations in the UK.
Its latest Aegis Intelligence Report cites a senior British security source as saying that a surprisingly large number of those arrested earlier in the year, and now awaiting trial, do not come from the religiously-fervent, socially-detached background previously seen in terrorists.
Rather, they are well integrated into British society. 'They enjoy drinking, clubbing and generally participating in British society as much as any young second/third generation South Asian man,' says Aegis.
As a result, Islamist extremists are now recruiting foot soldiers at social clubs and community centres instead of at mosques, their traditional recruitment centres."
The trick will be in denying Islam a foothold in the West.
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