Posted on 08/07/2004 8:34:03 PM PDT by DeaconBenjamin
China may attack the island in 2006, says business adviser, adding that the Olympics would not deter Beijing
THE heated rhetoric between China and Taiwan could see tensions break out into military action within two years, an analyst has warned.
As it is, some multinational companies, fearing the prospect of war, are firming up their emergency evacuation plans, Mr Michael Boyden, a business adviser to multinationals in Taiwan, told Radio Australia on Friday.
Likening the increasing intensity of cross-strait rhetoric to the 'boiling frog syndrome' - whereby a frog, oblivious to the steady rise in temperature, gets cooked alive - he warned that the situation, if left unchecked, could lead to military strikes.
'The pressure upon the Chinese government from the military establishment to let them sort the situation out, I think, is getting noticeably stronger,' said Mr Boyden, who is the managing director of Taiwan Asia Strategy Consulting.
'And unfortunately, the Taiwan issue has been coming into play in the apparent competition for influence between Jiang Zemin, the former president, and Hu Jintao, the present one.'
Without any serious attempt at some compromise resolution, cross-strait tension would likely deteriorate to 'a point where China has to demonstrate its resolve in some way', he said.
'This would have to be militarily,' said the analyst, who is also a contributor to the Economist Intelligence Unit's bi-weekly publication, Business Asia.
He warned that Beijing's hosting of the 2008 Olympics was no deterrent to an attack. In fact, China may strike before 2008, to avoid jeopardising the Games.
'It's assumed on the Taiwan side that China would not sacrifice the 2008 Olympics. I believe that they are right in a sense that the Olympics have to take place.
'So that means China has got to show its hand either before or after, and 2006 will probably be a good time for them to do it,' he said.
'It would give them a couple of years for everybody to forget about it before the Olympics came around and 2006 is (when) President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan has said that he intends to have a revised Constitution up and running.'
Similarly, China would not be deterred by Washington's obligation to defend Taipei under the Taiwan Relations Act. And it was unlikely that the US would commit itself 'instinctively'.
'I think what we are going to see is China probing more assertively to test the United States mettle in this respect to see if they really have got the right stuff and really would come to Taiwan's defence,' he said.
'I would seriously doubt it that (the US) would leap to Taiwan's defence instinctively. I think if the situation were bad enough, they might, but it has to be pretty bad.'
fyi
Here's a little info on that (all info from the first title only behind the URL address). There's much more info in existence, but most of it is hidden behind contribution lists for lefty causes over the past couple of decades.
Kerry Lists Endorsements From 204 Corporate Leaders
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1184967/posts
(info behind URL address)
http://www.umich.edu/~urel/admissions/legal/gru_amicus/32_internatl.pdf
The following filed briefs in favor of "affirmative
action" in the Michigan "Grutter v. Bollinger"
(Michigan University) case. Be sure to save the
list of corporations below for later reference.
American Bar Association
American Council on Education, et. al.
Civil Rights Project of Harvard University
Clinical Legal Education Association
Fortune 500 Corporations that filed briefs in favor
of "affirmative action" for Michigan University
3M
Abbott Laboratories
American Airlines
Ashland
Bank One
Boeing
Coca-Cola
Dow Chemical
E.I. Du Pont De Nemours
Eastman Kodak
Eli Lilly
Ernst & Young
Exelon
Fannie Mae
General Dynamics
General Mills
Intel
Johnson & Johnson
Kellogg
KPMG
Lucent Technologies
Microsoft
Mitsubishi
Nationwide Mutual Insurance
Nationwide Financial
Pfizer
PPG
Proctor & Gamble
Sara Lee
Steelcase
Texaco
TRW
United Airlines
General Motors Corporation
Law Deans of Columbia, Cornell, Duke, Georgetown, Harvard, New York and Yale University, and
University of Pennsylvania
Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights under Law
Michigan Attorney General
Michigan Public Officials
National Asian Pacific American Bar Association, et. al.
NOW Legal Defense and Education Fund
Ohio State University
Thirty-six Faculty Members of The Ohio State University College of Law
UAW (International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers
I pray that the warning those novels are meant to represent does not develop into anything like reality.
But, IMHO, if we do not quickly face the ChiComms down, and prepare now for the econiomic consequences of treating then as Reagan did the Soviets...and for the same reasons, then we will face the economic consequences anyway and in addition we will wind up embroiled in a major, full-blown world war.
To put it more realistically, "Multinational corporations are planning to evacuate Taiwan in the event of a Kerry election win."
I strongly doubt that the ChiComs will try anything with Bush at the helm. But Kerry? They would walk all over him.
We have to be prepared to sacrifice and yes, even suffer for freedom...or we are no longer free.
...over my dead body.
We can refuse to trade with Cuba, but not with China.
Amazing. Simply amazing. What a shame.
Agree. Obligation notwithstanding, I think we will leave Taiwan twisting in the wind.
MM
I agree with the poster above who offered the quantum option on dealing with China. Considering their population is easily swayed into extreme displays of nationalism when facing outside threats, the first few Trident subs emptying their tubes would level the battlefield nearly instantly.
China has fewer than 100 ICBMs. By 2006, NMD will have at least two if not three layers. Plus we've demonstrated that we can keep Russian nukes on the ground if we desire them to stay put through satellite signals.
If president Bush is re-elected and the ChiComs go after Taiwan in 2006, watch for the sun to rise over China hundreds of times on the day China starts an invasion. Tactically and strategically it is the only plausible way to deal with the PLA forces. (Due to their sheer quantity, not quality.)
We MUST stand with/by Taiwan.
I sincerely hope and pray your are wrong my friend.
How can we afford to fight China, when our president announced today that America must (pay to) build a middle class in Mexico? We already paying, with tax money and jobs, to build middle classes in India and China, and losing our own. Then factor in the War on Terror. Instead of stopping terrorists at the border, we wait til they get in country then spend massive amounts of money on patrols, inspections, guarding bridges and buildings etc etc.
The globalists want us bankrupt, they want the balance of power to shift to Asia. When they hold their G8 meetings, they talk about how to accomplish this and our press refuses to report on their plans. Then of course we have the members of Congress who also attend these meetings never letting on that their loyalties are with the global elite and not the American people.
Agree 100% yet "we" ain't making the decision.....the decision the "bankers" will make is what concerns me.
Taiwan will get Kerried away if GW loses IMO......bank on it .
Hope we stand by the taiwan citizens. We promised we would.
Stay safe !
Would Chinese farmers turn out in a popular uprising against their government if war broke out? They have suffered mightily at the hands of their oppressive government.
I agree with that...all the more reason why the traitor, more slippery than willy, war criminal, lying, elitist Kerry hopefully will not win.
Mind your knot.
If they didn't turn out over Tienamen Square when their own sons and daughters were massacred, I do not believe they will turn out over Taiwan.
Taiwan may get them to do so if the Three Gorges Dam is made to fail...in such a scenario, the ROC will have little to lose if we abandon them.
I am afraid you are hitting on all eight there.
Well, a few of them appear to be reaching the end of their patience.
***
Chinese Riot Police Open Fire on Citizens
At 2:00 a.m. on July 31, over 600 riot police with 50 vehicles surrounded Shijiahe Village in the middle of the night. As organizers of a protest were being arrested, police were blocked off by villagers. The police, in return, opened fire on the unarmed villagers, pouring tear gas and rubber bullets into the crowd. In the ensuing chaos, over 30 villagers were hit, and among them, six received serious injuries.
According to a report by Apple Daily, some villagers disclosed that Liu Guozhao, secretary of Shijiahe Village in northern Zhengzhou City, took land villagers used for farming and sold it to real estate companies. The average size of villagers’ lands for farming dropped about 10 percent. On June 20, a large amount of land was sold, and the reduction in size went from 10 to 40 percent. One villager said, “We never received a penny from these land sales, and our lives are dependant on our land!”
The farmers couldn’t take it any longer. On June 29, about 400 to 500 villagers went to their regional government to protest. On their way back there was a car accident resulting in one death and six injuries. After the car accident, Zhengzhou City sent personnel to Shijiahe Village to investigate the matter, and promised to release their findings on July 31. However, no findings were ever released.
On the early morning of July 31, about 600 riot police and 50 vehicles blocked all roads to Shijiahe Village. They then proceeded to arrest the organizers of the protesting villagers.
Upon receiving word that protestors were being arrested, thousands of villagers formed a human wall in an effort to protect the protestors. Around 3:30 a.m., police began their assault on the villagers with rubber bullets and tear gas, creating a scene of chaos, that resulted in 30 villagers getting hit, and six being seriously injured and rushed to the emergency room.
A woman interviewed by the Apple Daily said that around 3:00 a.m., police suddenly began firing tear gas into the crowd, creating a hazy, eye-irritating mess. As the villagers panicked, she heard the police open fire, and began to run to the back. However, she received three hits around the back of her hips and two in her leg, which made her bleed profusely.
According to a report, in February of this year, it was discovered that citizen’s compensation for the confiscation of their lands was short by 10 billion yuan (US$1.2 billion). Henan Province, where Shijiahe Village is located, seems to be especially notorious for these problems. Compensation for citizen’s lands was short by over one billion yuan (US$120.8 million) there. Of that debt, 700 million (US$84.6) has been paid, with 300 million (US$36.2 million) still unpaid. Records indicate that in the first half of this year alone there have been more complaints regarding this issue than the 18,000 complaints the government received in 2003.
http://english.epochtimes.com/news/4-8-7/22758.html
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