Posted on 08/07/2004 8:20:23 AM PDT by Libloather
Kerry: GOP 'turned the corner' going wrong way
By Katharine Q. Seelye
The New York Times
WASHINGTON -- All week long, President George W. Bush traveled the country, cheerfully telling audiences that "we've turned the corner" on the economy. But on Friday, in the face of the government's paltry new numbers on job growth, the president's new slogan suddenly sounded premature at best.
By now, Republicans had hoped that the early indications this year that the economy was indeed turning the corner would have allowed them to neutralize, or even turn to their advantage, the issue that John Kerry had once considered central to his White House hopes. Instead, the new numbers, coming just three weeks before the Republican convention, leave little doubt that the economy could still be a potent issue for the Democrats.
Rather than address his vulnerability head-on Friday, Bush delivered an upbeat assessment of the economy, saying it was getting stronger and lauding the American entrepreneurial spirit. "There's more work to do to make this economy stronger," he said at a rally at a farm in Stratham, N.H. "We've been through a recession. We've been through corporate scandals. We've been through a terrorist attack. But we've overcome these obstacles because our workers are great, because our farmers are really good at what they do. We've overcome these obstacles because the entrepreneurial spirit is strong."
This prompted cheers of "four more years."
In contrast, Kerry seized on the numbers with relish. At a farm in Smithville, Mo., outside Kansas City, Kerry made fun of Bush, though not by name. "In the last few days you've heard people in positions of leadership on the other side saying America has turned the corner," he said. "Well it must have been a U-turn, or else they're continually turning and they're going around in circles and ending up right back where they started from."
The timing of the new economic numbers is particularly perilous for Bush because he is trying to build momentum in the run-up to his convention. It is also the period in the presidential campaign when voters' perceptions begin to harden.
After a sweep of encouraging economic news through the spring, the disappointing numbers in the past two months -- capped by the ones Friday -- gives weight to the Democrats' argument that while the economy might not be terrible, things are not going so well. The next set of jobless numbers is to be issued Sept. 3, the day after Bush accepts his party's nomination. After that, the October numbers will be the last before the Nov. 2 election.
That means the president has just two more chances for an improved outlook.
Analysts said Friday's news would make it hard for the Bush campaign to change the subject from the economy.
"The economy doesn't go away as a campaign issue," said Andrew Kohut, the director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. "And with no sign of progress, it really puts the Republicans on the defensive."
This could be particularly true in states such as Ohio, Michigan and Missouri, which have lost the most jobs since Bush became president. They are also among the states where polls show the election to be neck and neck.
Even before the latest numbers, polls showed that the public has more faith in Bush as commander in chief -- and less faith in him to manage the economy -- than in Kerry. To that end, in a hint of how Bush is approaching the issue, on Friday he went from playing down the numbers to quickly turning his rhetoric back to Topic A, terror. The endless stream of e-mails from his campaign to reporters focused on terror, not the economy. Similarly, the subject of his radio address today was terror, not the economy.
The campaigns dispute the effect that the jobs numbers will have on voters. David Winston, a Republican pollster, said the numbers were disappointing, but insisted that voters should not judge the president on them. "It's (as) if you have a baseball player like Barry Bonds and he goes 0 for 4 one day and you decide to trade him, as opposed to looking at the totality of his performance for the entire season," he said.
Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Texas, who is the House majority leader, lauded the dip in the unemployment rate. "These statistics show that our economy is moving in the right direction," he said in a printed statement, "but also that there is more work to be done." He has been seeking to make the Bush tax cuts permanent.
But Tad Devine, a senior strategist for the Kerry campaign, said voters' perceptions were solidifying and any suggestion that they should wait until Election Day to assess Bush and the economy was "ludicrous."
"The American people are looking for solutions," he said. "What they want to hear is what Kerry and Edwards are going to do about jobs. That will be our focus, not the shortcomings of this administration."
Devine said voters do not want to hear Kerry denigrate Bush, but they want to hear how Kerry will make things better, which means the Kerry economic plan will come under new scrutiny.
But just in case the Kerry team dwells on what some Democrats are calling the jobless economy, Devine added: "Of course, it will be referenced in the normal course of political dialogue, but it will not be our focus."
The Kerry plan to reverse what Democrats called the anemic job growth also involves controlling health care costs and energy costs. Kerry would also refund the payroll taxes for companies that hire new employees, cut taxes for businesses that create jobs in the United States and eliminate tax breaks for American companies that move their jobs overseas. He also speaks frequently of restoring the fiscal discipline of the Clinton administration. During his acceptance speech at the Democratic convention, he underscored the point by having Robert Rubin, Clinton's treasury secretary who is well-respected on Wall Street, sit next to Kerry's wife.
Kerry's running mate, John Edwards, gently put the numbers in perspective. He noted that more than 300,000 children were born in the United States last month, suggesting that only 32,000 new jobs showed "we're not quite keeping up."
But the bad jobs news holds perils for the Democrats as well, largely under the category of the old political advice against celebrating misery.
Kohut said the economy, the War on Terror and the war in Iraq are "a triumvirate" of issues important to voters this year. But the economy, he said, "is a persistent source of discontent," unlike the other two, which can ebb and flow depending on daily events. He said the numbers gave the Democrats the ability to keep hammering the idea that the president's policies are taking the country in the wrong direction.
"This is a real difficult thing for Bush," he said.
Even so, the president made clear he would not be giving the Democrats any sound bites of him admitting to a faltering economy.
Campaigning in New Hampshire, he said his "well-timed tax cuts" had produced a strong economy despite setbacks. "We've been through a lot -- a recession, corporate scandals, the terrorist attacks -- but we've overcome these obstacles because our workers are great," he said.
He left it to others to discuss how the economy might be improved -- but, again, without admitting a problem. Donald L. Evans, the secretary of commerce, released a statement finding hope in the dip in unemployment, to 5.5 percent from 5.6 percent, and saying "the American economy is moving in the right direction."
Still, the Democrats were determine to emphasize the figures as affirmation that Bush is taking the country in the wrong direction -- and they have no plans to let up before November.
How did this goofball ever get to be a lawyer?
How do voters think that electing a widow-chaser and trial lawyer that are going to raise taxes is going to help the economy?
I think if Bushs main tax cuts had phased in in 2002 rather than 2003, he would be 10 points ahead right now. Just like his father, Bush seems to have timed his recovery to come just in time for his opponent to prosper on.
And yes those children were born not aborted by both of these hypocrites.
This is a serious problem. Edwards should get his buddies at Planned Parenthood to kill more of these useless eaters.
Kerry can spin it however he wants - the facts remain.
Fact #1 The economy still grew.
Fact #2 32,000 new jobs were still created.
Fact #3 Unemployment still went down.
Fact #4 For Kerry to have a chance at the WH, he has to make facts 1-3 appear to be "bad things".
Fact #5 It ain't gonna happen.
Notice, of course, that Kerry has never explained the "need" to raise taxes, because there is none, other than generating more class division and hate, for votes. The old tired Dem mantra, "TAX BREAKS FOR THE RICH" keeps coming out of their mouths, for the benefit of the grossly ignorant who have no idea who really pays the tax burden in this country.
And of course, a fine piece of journalism from the New Left Times, totally unbiased, and presenting the complete and truthful unbiased news. My God, that rag has gone to the dogs...and become the mouthpiece for the far left Dems.
More abortions! Think of how that will prop up the stem-cell markets! Democrats are such brilliant economists.
John Kerry and his horse walked into a bar.
The bartender asked, "Why the long faces."
Guess the economy is looking pretty good to most. The liberal nominees are sour pusses. I would hate to be a liberal democrat. I would be depressed all the time.
Please, please, please tell me that the quote by Edwards is a spoof.
If a politician in a small pseudo-socialist country like Sweden say something as silly as that the world doesn't have to care, but the candidate for VP in the USA...
How dumb can you get? No wonder the Dow tanked yesterday. Just the remotest possibility that Kerry/Edwards would be allowed to run the country for the next 4 years - scary!
The economy is doing GREAT. Fastest growth in 2 decades. Highest employment ever. Productivity gains in the past 4 years have been tremendous.
Folks, help me out - point me to the overall economic numbers. We need an 'economy fact sheet' to rebut this nonsense.
WOW! 268,000 newborns are unemployed! Another reason for the liberals to support abortion....
Fact #6 Kerry has the biased media on his side to make appearances look worse than reality.
IF Skerry-Backwards do get elected, God forbid, Two Year Olds will be forced to work do to their new 98% tax bracket (98% of Americans get taxed on 98% of everything)
:-)
Excellent comment. I wish some journalist would ask Edwards (or Kerry) about that statement and use your line.
My grandfather didn't start working in the mill until he was twelve. Shouldn't newborns wait until they are weaned before they start flipping burgers.
All that could happen is if Kerry gets elected, the media will suddenly proclaim the economy is wonderful and great, even when it becomes worse. Just as the Clinton economy was always bad --- jobs were being outsourced at a very high rate in the early 90's but the media ignored it all.
I am not sure what they are doing, frankly. This election is Bush's to lose, if he does not play it right, in spite of the blatant stupidity and criminality of the Kerry campaign and the media.
Bush MUST take a hard line, and attack the junk yard dogs of the left, at their level...hard and nasty. I would agree he must dump the "politically correct" soft-talk language and right now.
"Edwards: newborns out pace jobs"
Their fix?
It's easy - Destroy the newborns! It is only "fetal tissue" after all, isn't it? And we can then use it for creating clones of clintons, kennedy, kerry, etc - who could deserve it more?
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