Posted on 08/06/2004 8:24:31 AM PDT by socal_parrot
WASHINGTON – Warming water temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific last month may indicate the start of a new El Niño.
El Niño, which can affect weather conditions around the world, is often first seen as increased sea surface temperatures in the Pacific along with changes in wind patterns.
Sea surface temperatures rose nearly 1 degree Fahrenheit above normal in July, with even higher readings to the east, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.
The temperature increases, the agency said, "indicate the possible early stages of a warm episode."
The report noted that the normal easterly winds in mid-June through early July weakened in many areas of the equatorial Pacific.
"At this time it is not clear what, if any, impacts this event will have on ocean temperatures in the classical El Niño region along the west coast of South America," the agency said.
El Niños were first observed along the South American coast and named by fishermen noticing a decline in their catch.
As researchers studied the phenomenon, they found that El Niño – which combines changes in temperature, wind and air pressure over the Pacific – can change the flow of the atmosphere. El Niño effects range from drought in Indonesia, Australia and Africa, to storms in California and floods elsewhere.
The 1997 El Niño caused an estimated $20 billion in damage worldwide.
On the Net:
Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
You know, like maybe it would rain once in a while.
Exactly. Any cursory look at rainfall stats in SoCal will clearly show that the region gets heavy rainfall every 6-8 years. In fact, the avg annual rainfall (14"/yr) is not even close to reflecting the true state of affairs. It's really around 5-6" for 5-6 years, then 1-2 years with 25-30".
The Indians & Padres knew all about it when they were trying to establish the missions. It just took another 200+ years for someone to come up with a catchy name.
We can use the wet stuff.
We've got rain today. Quite a shock, actually, August is supposed to be our dry month. WE'RE DOOMED!!!
So does this mean that we're going to get a bad winter in Ks or is there no correlation. I love the lack of 100 degree days, but I'm starting to wonder about what winter will be like.
It's a 6-9 year cycle...you're due to get hit again.
In 1997, when I was working in the Beale AFB weather station, I had to put together a graph of rainfall for 100 years when Marysville (and other places) had to evacuate.
The trends were very evident...wish I had saved a copy.
The timing of this is suspicious!
We've also got rain today. Quite a shock, actually, August is supposed to be our wet month.
I have no idea.
Maybe. I would like a bad winter, but sometimes cool summers result in warm winters.
I guess we will find out.
There is almost always a pattern shift between the summer pattern and the winter pattern.
It would be something if the pattern shifted to make the winter harsher. I would lean to it being milder than normal since patterns like to shift between the seasons, but I don't know for sure.
I hope not.
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