Which campaign is really in trouble?

Based on events of the past few months, the Kerry Edwards ticket should now have vaulted to a comfortable lead of between five and ten points. In April, American casualties in Iraq soared to their highest one month level since the war began. The following month came the revelation of the Abu Ghraib scandal. In early July, Senator John Kerry picked John Edwards as his running mate to almost universal media acclaim. The Democratic convention went off smoothly, and Kerry’s acceptance speech to a decent size TV audience was generally well received. Images of Kerry as a strong leader and a war veteran were all over the stage and screen. The most recent economic data indicated a slowing from the rapid economic growth rate that occurred in the first quarter, and a lower level of monthly job creation. And perhaps most significantly, the Kerry campaign, supplemented by very heavy support from 527 support groups, has been outspending the Bush campaign on TV and radio for months.

A few polls conducted the night after the Kerry speech did show a bit of a bounce -- Newsweek’s instant poll gave Kerry a 7 point lead, CBS a 6 point lead, Zogby a 5 point lead. Polling following convention acceptance speeches has been tracked for many years, and there is fairly clear historical evidence that there are initial bounces that begin to fade over the next few weeks. Conducting a poll immediately after a major event can therefore be misleading. Given the organizations conducting the instant polls, it would not be surprising if the timing (instant, and hence likely to be favorable to Kerry), was designed to display momentum for the Democratic ticket. People like to be with winners after all, so the mere appearance of momentum sometimes can create it. The New York Times, and CBS and Newsweek are not neutral about this race, much as they obsess about Fox News for its alleged bias.

The later Presidential polls, conducted 3 to 6 days after the Convention ended, now show the race even. Kerry’s lead has evaporated. The Marist poll and the Rasmussen poll show a tie, ABC/Washington Post gives Kerry a two point lead (though this result may be stale by now), and CNN/Gallup/USA have Bush ahead by 6. When this last poll’s results were initially tabulated, the pollsters themselves were so surprised by the results, they added one extra night. Bush then pulled further ahead (widening a 4 point lead to 6).

Something is going on here, and it is NOT good news for the Kerry Edwards ticket. Despite friendly media coverage, and the boosts to be expected from the VP pick and the convention, Kerry and Edwards are still in a dead heat with Bush and Cheney, just as they were four weeks ago. And the GOP convention is still to come, which should help the President.

Charles Cook and other pundits keep arguing that a dead heat at this stage is not good news for Bush, since undecided voters tend to break for the challenger at the end. But the recent ping pong polling results suggest that the movement in the polls week to week may result from voters who are loosely affiliated with one candidate moving to or from that candidate. This is different than the picture of undecided voters who, as a group, begin to pay attention only after the World Series is concluded. Many Americans already seem to be following the campaign quite closely.

Scott Rasmussen has noticed that every time ether candidate pulls ahead by a few points, the race reverts to 50/50 a few days later. This has now happened twice in a month. This repeated pattern of a Kerry boost and then fade, is beginning to alarm some of the Bush haters, such as Paul Krugman, who in his Tuesday column accused CNN of behaving in a Fox News Channel-like manner. The media is killing Kerry, if you listen to Krugman. Krugman has written this election is critical because the nation’s future is threatened by GOP control of the White House and Congress. To a lesser extent, presumably, we are threatened by al Qaeda.

The real problem with the Kerry Edwards ticket is more basic, and self-inflicted I think. The candidates and their spouses were filmed this week stopping at Wendy’s to celebrate the Edwards’ anniversary. What better way to show the candidates’ connection to John Edwards’ “other America”? Kerry and his wife seemed confused in the restaurant. They ordered little. Back on the luxury bus, the ticket was treated to its regular gourmet seafood lunch, ordered in from the local yacht club. Billionaires may be filmed at Wendy’s but they won’t eat there. And most Americans can identify phonies.

William Saletan in Slate reads the race differently than I do. Saletan is a Kerry partisan, but a thoughtful careful writer. Yet I think he relies too much on issue polls and other internals, and not enough on the head-to-head race, since the head-to-head numbers are not as favorable to his guy. Voters can favor Kerry on nine of ten issues, but if the tenth is the important one for them, they still might not vote for Kerry. Some voters might favor Kerry on most issues, and still find him cold, aloof and not their kind of guy. The head-to-head poll is what matters, not the below-the-surface numbers. Job approval is probably second in importance, but even here the Bush numbers have stayed in the high 40s, or low 50s, higher than incumbents who have been defeated before, and a bit lower than those who have been re-elected. Saletan uses Zogby’s job approval numbers (which tend to be lower), but Zogby uses a different question and scoring system than all other polls on this question.

The Missouri primary election on Tuesday should be a wakeup call to the Democrats. Seventy-two percent of voters supported the traditional definition of marriage in a referendum. In November, similar referenda will be on the ballot in Michigan, probably Ohio, and maybe a dozen other states, including a few where there are hotly contested Senate races. The gay marriage issue tends to attract mainly conservative voters to the polls. The Missouri turnout was the largest ever for a primary. Bigger conservative turnout helps Bush, and in some states, the additional votes cast by those who show up to oppose gay marriage could be the margin of victory. The state Democratic Party in Missouri fought to have the referendum voted on during the Primary, and not in November, precisely for this reason. The Bush campaign has also tapped Ralph Reed, the engineer of the Republican victory in Georgia in 2002, to manage the campaign in Florida this year. Expect a very good turnout of Republican voters in Florida in November.

With al Qaeda warning of attacks in September, and the economic numbers still in flux, a close race could clearly hinge on events that cannot be safely predicted. But the Edwards pick and the convention do not appear to have moved Kerry’s campaign boat too swiftly. The debates probably represent his last best opportunity to shine, but also could be very damaging unless there is a personality makeover in the coming weeks.

The wisdom of the Edwards pick seems less apparent a month after his selection, as national security and terror threats become a bigger issue. Little John has spent a month talking about what a great guy Big John is. When Edwards debates Cheney, the gravitas and experience differential could be crushing for a candidate not yet ready for the main stage. Most important, the Kerry campaign has surrounded itself with Kerry’s Viet Nam buddies in an attempt to sell Kerry as a tough future leader, based on his 4 months of Viet Nam service 33 years ago. This may be a better strategy than trying to sell a very liberal and generally unimpressive 20 year Senate career, but without any specifics or substance on how Kerry would mange the international portfolio better than Bush, it may not be enough. Dick Morris says that Kerry would have done better to emphasize his domestic agenda rather than try to out-soldier Bush. .

David Brooks has called Kerry the Democrats’ designated driver. Kerry, he says, is the sober one in a party intoxicated with self-righteous rage at President Bush. But Kerry is also a driver who seems to naturally weave from side to side. And even a designated driver can go off the road, when he has no directions.

Richard Baehr

Not that I have to justify myself to someone like you but..

Take a look at the tagline.

Please name me just one thing remotely Conservative tubby Tommy Thompson has done since taking over as head of the Health and Human Services Department?

Take a look at its posting history.

By all means please do so, Go right to my home page, I am the "Keeper" of the Generation X ping list and I have links to every article that I ever posted/pinged to it on my home page. A recurring theme that I post in the ping list is how wonderful it is that the younger generations are becoming more Conservative (and we make fun of Hippies too)

Quote FROM ME in the last article before this thread

The trends are all toward Republicans

"I'm Gen-X and I am ecstatic that the younger Gen-Y in college and high school right now is even more Conservative and active than we were at their age and I hope Gen-Z is even more so.

My favorite article that I posted (not just pinged) to the Gen-X ping list was It’s Morning After in America (Long but Awesome read - We are winning the culture war!!)

Yeah those are quotes and articles a liberal would post.

I report, you decide...

More like All the News that's fit to print..

Look buddy, You don't agree with my assement of GWB's campaign so far then fine, Us Conservatives don't have to agree in lockstep with everything each other says, And please feel free by all means to tell me where you think I am wrong. But to come out and attack me as Liberal DU plant in not one but 2 post, Especially when there was nothing remotely Liberal about my post I would say you owe me an apology big time.

I would say you owe me an apology big time.

I owe you nothing. Using a tagline like that has outed you for a Randian Cultist (at best) or some one that is not too sublety using a paraphrase of an Al Franken book title to attack a Bush Cabinet member as visciously as the most rabid DUma$$ (at worst).

RINO is one thing, junior, fascist is something else entirely.

Don't like the HHS budget over the last few years? Do you understand that a cabinet secretary does not control their own budget? Do you understand that 95% of the HHS spending is non-discretionary in any given year, withour Congress killing the underlying program? Do you understand that the point man on implementing the community and faith based assistance initiatives is Secretary Thompson?

Do you understand anything at all? If anyone around here deserves an apology, its:

1) Secretary Thompson and
2) The other people you have insulted in your posts.

So, to repeat dighton's question, junior: What makes Tommy Thompson a fascist?

Now as for Bush's re-election campaign. It really has'nt started yet. Have some patience. If you recall the 1996 campaign, the GOP basically put a walking corpse at the head of their ticket and had nothing to run on other than "I'm not Bill Clinton".

The opposition is repeating that playbook. I remember the feeling of despair after the '96 convention. I went into it knowing that we were screwed, spent a dismal fall knowing that the Dole Kemp ticket was DOA; oh yes, I remember the feeling well. The current 'rat campaign has the same pall around it. They know that they're DOA. This will be a 40-45 state blowout, barring Bush being videotaped molesting puppies.

Using a tagline like that has outed you for a Randian Cultist (at best) or some one that is not too sublety using a paraphrase of an Al Franken book title to attack a Bush Cabinet member as visciously as the most rabid DUma$$ (at worst).

Take off the tin foil hat, It's a line from South Park and that's all.

RINO is one thing, junior, fascist is something else entirely.

Junior? LOL!!!

You are the one who tried to Ping all your "Friends" to help you fight your battle, Yeah that's a sign of maturity.

Out of curiosity, I can only count 7 people in your ping before the rest are blocked out by a ...... so how many total people (numbers not names) did you try to ping to help you?

While we're talking about Thompson, you might be well advised to study his record as Governor of Wisconsin. The welfare reform he implemented in a quite liberal state was the model that the GOP rammed down the Toons' throat (so to speak) in 1996. Don't like the HHS budget over the last few years? Do you understand that a cabinet secretary does not control their own budget? Do you understand that 95% of the HHS spending is non-discretionary in any given year, withour Congress killing the underlying program?

He was a good governor I will give you that,

However since then he his health gestapo have called for raising taxes on cigarettes and junk food, assaulted and sold out to the UN the1st Amendment and our private property rights.

See

Obesity in America, with Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson and Kelly Brownell, PhD.

Tommy Thompson’s Reign of Terror

U.S. Shocks with Promise to Back Anti-Smoking Pact (Tommy Thompson told journalists (WHO)) )

Tommy Thompson Floats New Tobacco Tax

Note: I didn't post these articles (And as far as I know without re-reading through them all I don't think I even responded in any of them) and take note of the lovely names other Freepers hurl at him.

Do you understand that the point man on implementing the community and faith based assistance initiatives is Secretary Thompson?

So let me get this straight.

Tommy Thompson is the point man on spending more of our money on useless social programs.

And this is making his case that he's a good Republican how?

Do you understand anything at all? If anyone around here deserves an apology, its:

1) Secretary Thompson and

I am not going to apologize to tubby Tommy any more than I am going to apologize to Ariana Huffington or Terreezza Heinz Kerry (who like Tommy Thompson were also Republicans at one time) for anything bad I said/say/am going to say about them,

2) The other people you have insulted in your posts.

What other people are you talking about???

Again if you haven't noticed none of your "Friends" you tried to call out for help showed up and everyone else who responded to this exchange were apparently taking my side.

They only other person I insulted was John Kerry. Don't tell me you think I should apologize to John Kerry for calling him a fool???

So, to repeat dighton's question, junior: What makes Tommy Thompson a fascist?

The current war on cigarettes and fatty foods in which Tommy Thompson is a major player is right out of Hitler's "You have a duty to the state to be healthy" play book.

Before you attack me on that point, Consider that Rush Limbaugh calls people of Tommy Thompson's ilk Anti-Smoking Nazis and the Health Gestapo. Is Rush a DNC plant also?

I disagree because Dole never came close to Clinton and the fact that ~50% of the people believe we a still in a recession and <50% think Iraq was worth it shows that Bush and all Republicans have just utterly failed in getting the message out. Yes I know the press is against Bush big time, but they were also against Reagan and Nixon and they were able to take their message directly to the people while Bush has just done poorly at it. I do really hope you are right and it's not to late.

Now, Even though I still disagreed with your rebuttal. Bravo, Much applause. That's was damm fine, well thought out, well written, civil response to my post. There actually might be hope for you when you mature a little more.

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