Tell me more, please. Have children on the coast.
Satellite images suggest that the tropical wave in the tropical
Atlantic approaching the Lesser Antilles has become a little better
organized and it is being classified as a tropical depression. It
is difficult to ascertain if the system...an especially fast moving
one...has a closed circulation without data from a reconnaissance
plane. You could make the case that a small circulation exists
using quicksat ambiguity analysis. The depression has enough deep
convection...banding features and good outflow and the shear is
expected to remain on the weak side. Therefore...a gradual
strengthening is indicated. This is consistent with both SHIPS and
GFDL models.
The depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 18 knots...
steered by the winds south of the subtropical ridge. However...
large scale models forecast a large trough over the eastern coast
of the United States. This trough will erode the subtropical ridge
forcing the cyclone to turn more to northwest and north during the
last portion of the forecast.
Preliminary coordinations have been made with the meteorologists
from the Lesser Antilles to issue watches and warnings later today
if necessary.
Forecaster Avila