This is the year for a real Hurricane Karl. 6 years ago I only got a crappy mid-Atlantic hurricane.
Posted on 08/03/2004 8:09:51 AM PDT by tmp02
000 WTNT32 KNHC 031450 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR SOME OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES... 735 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...13.2 N... 54.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
I dont know though...As I look at it, it stands to reason that the same trough that will end up kicking Alex out to sea will keep this one well offshore as well...I hope
Here we go.
Surfs up Dude, it was great in Daytona last week after a summer of lake Atlantic. Looking forward to more waves this weekend.
Lovely.....I leave for Montego Bay Friday AM.
Ho hum, another one, yawn.
It looks like a trough will steer this puppy your way and not into the Gulf of Mexico. Keep your eyes open!
Yep. I ain't even getting excited about Alex.
Winds up to 90 MPH......get excited!
Tell me more, please. Have children on the coast.
Updates for Alex are over on this thread. And P.S. - the Hurricane Center was clueless on the development of this one!!
The northern eye wall is now approaching verycloseto Hatteras. Probably now at Ocracoke.
Hey, I can pay attention while still remaining calm. ;^)
Nothing but rain over here for four days. Not complaining!
Hopefully this one heads on out to sea and Northern lattitudes after clearing the Carribean islands.
Satellite images suggest that the tropical wave in the tropical
Atlantic approaching the Lesser Antilles has become a little better
organized and it is being classified as a tropical depression. It
is difficult to ascertain if the system...an especially fast moving
one...has a closed circulation without data from a reconnaissance
plane. You could make the case that a small circulation exists
using quicksat ambiguity analysis. The depression has enough deep
convection...banding features and good outflow and the shear is
expected to remain on the weak side. Therefore...a gradual
strengthening is indicated. This is consistent with both SHIPS and
GFDL models.
The depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 18 knots...
steered by the winds south of the subtropical ridge. However...
large scale models forecast a large trough over the eastern coast
of the United States. This trough will erode the subtropical ridge
forcing the cyclone to turn more to northwest and north during the
last portion of the forecast.
Preliminary coordinations have been made with the meteorologists
from the Lesser Antilles to issue watches and warnings later today
if necessary.
Forecaster Avila
Hopefully this one heads on out to sea and Northern lattitudes after clearing the Carribean islands.
This is the year for a real Hurricane Karl. 6 years ago I only got a crappy mid-Atlantic hurricane.
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