Strategy and tactics analysis time:
I've been following the general flow of information in the latest news releases, and I think I am beginning to see a definite trend. I want to run this across you guys, because I know the experience level and knowledge you have.
Strategy:
Al Qaeda seems to have transferred a lot of command and control to the second tier of its command structure, and they seem to want to strike inside the United States. The top tier seems to be driven underground and on the run continually.
The method they are favoring appears to be infiltration, setting up logistics and communications bases, and then gaining thorough intelligence about targets available in their geographic locations.
Their ability to engage in limited guerilla warfare operations is beyond question, and they have the capability to conduct localized operations in about 40 states as we speak. If they are in some kind of agreement state with Hamas and Hizbullah, they can combine forces and project operations in all 50 states.
The ability of Al Qaeda to use unconventional weapons is not clear, and the possibility they have them cannot be ruled out.
Tactics
Al Qaeda cells may attempt to combine localized guerilla operations and improvised Chemical/Biological/Radiological weapons attacks in geographic areas acessible to them in an attempt to raise the level of military operations inside the United States homeland to a level roughly equivalent to medium intensity guerilla warfare.
Desired outcome:
Political and military realignment of US priorities, and possible political/ military/ economic gains from the response it would require.
What do you think? Any additions or subtractions? Just a theory, but it makes sense to me.
I do hope this never ever comes to fruition. It is a terrifying scenario.
First I have to agree that the command and control has shifted to the second tier and the first is running for their lives. The 2nd tier is no less deadly than the first, in fact, even if we succeed in killing or capturing the big cheese OBL himself, this may in fact energize the 2nd tier to even greater atrocities.
They have to infiltrate by border penetration, too many are on a "watch list" to try and go for visas and legitimate means of entry. The odds are heavily in their favor in crossing the border either north or south. Our neighbors have grown very unfriendly at a deeper level and can not be trusted. Until we get over the PC attitudes and use the military to close our borders the odds that we will shortly be fighting on our own soil.
I think that IMHO, they are not well organized enough to conduct formalized guerilla operations here that have a specific series of targets and sequence with a clear cut goal in mind. That would put them into a situation requiring a protracted and vulnerable logistics "tail." Log operations for such a group is a security nightmare. Safehouses, transportation, semi secure commo, perhaps jobs that provide a semblance of "cover" and of course bank accounts that don't raise suspicions. At least this isn't possible while our sophisticated infrastructure is operating at full efficiency. DISRUPT the infrastructure in a significant manner, nationwide and it's a whole new game.
That requires WMD used on strategic targets and not just for a high body count. Bio can be used to keep the population reeling and panicked, incapable of helping Homeland Security Efforts, while overloading the hospital systems. Chemical attacks, especially a persistant nerve agent, would be used to deny access for limited times to a number of critical installations (which I won't enumerate here) but the bigger the target zone, the more difficult decon ops will be, unless it is very rainy and then there is a danger of groundwater contamination.
As I explained to my wife over a two hour trip the other day, I think there are three types of operators involved in this country right now:
The first level are the big gun guys: WMD specialists and these will be the deep cover guys who are trained in "trade craft" they will have the most secure operation in history. Need to know? Higher than that.
The next level will be cells with specific missions and targets. Some cells will have a network mission and a central handler. These guys are fairly vulnerable to being compromised, even by sheer accident. Take out one of these and it could make big headlines. It depends how many of these are out there. They probably think they're the first level and have no idea of the WMD. If the WMD in fact doesn't exist, then they are the first level. Meaning there would be LOTS of them. They'll be the aircraft hijackers, the truck bombers and the high explosive folks.
The lowest level are also the most difficult to interdict while being the least deadly in terms of "mass" casualities. These are probably the "lone gunmen" type mentalities who penetrated the borders and they'll be the shooters or possibly the suicide bombers. They'll have a universal "GO" code and they will take targets of opportunity at their own discretion, nothing preplanned here. These may number in the tens of thousands if the recent border patrol stats mean anything.
As I come up with anything more, I'll try and "flesh this out."
You both covered it pretty well. A few suggested additions:
Strategy:
Some of the remaining first tier may have been transferred in preparation for this new phase and its repercussions (they will be showing their hand). Much of it has been taking place "involuntarily" as the first tier has been dismantled so extensively by our ongoing operations.
Stories keep leaking that UBL and Zawahiri are involved up to the present in the planning and execution of this operation, which begs the question - - why now? Their utility is diminished as their effectiveness has to have been degraded by their current circumstances. And the more they get "involved" they more the risk exposure (and are resigned to that fact). So again, why? There must be something "special" about what is underway.
Tactics
Qaeda/Hezbollah cooperation goes back before 9/11. I am constantly surprised why so much more focus on AQ when it is not nearly the threat to us as Hezbollah. It is doubtful that they could launch let alone sustain a medium-intensity operation (which as you know, differs from a one-time simultaneous strike or a limited series of strikes). The three groups *may* have presence in each of the 50 states, but that means in some key states there is an intricate and disciplined network of cells (that for some reason has slipped passed our detection) that can coordinate and plan their actions. I'll grant the possibility. But in some states the "presence" might be a single "cell" of 4 or 5 folks whose members may not be nearly as committed or competent. These jihadis are young. They settle here, settle down, and get a job. Sure, many if not most are "sleepers", but some of them even "grow up" and leave the folly of their youth behind them. Prepare for the worst, but I would not bank on all "cells" being "100% combat effective". Even American soldiers go AWOL.
The organization in Iraq is my benchmark for the worst-case scenario - - a few thousand fighters nationwide (at the extreme) who have difficulty coordinating their actions and are easily mopped up once they present themselves. I have difficulty accepting the premise that they can build a tighter or larger network here than there.
Not to say they could not bring about the "single day of horror" we have been warned about. I just think that they cannot wage a sustained and effective paramilitary operation in the weeks afterwards to exploit the chaos. It would be scattershot. Same way as an Iranian or DPRK ICBM would be an effective "terror" tool, but not as a militarily useful weapon (unless the Chinese gave them the guidance systems they stole from us).
Creating chaos and killing lots of civilians is not the same as being militarily effective. Even the "terror" part will backfire as it will just make us angrier and more determined. They don't like 150,000 troops in Iraq? Wait until volunteers line up in waves to take revenge for the WMD strikes and we all beg for a draft. We'll send *millions* of troops to take apart the region village by village, town by town, city by city. If we don't demand the President launch several hundred of our three thousand (or more) nuclear warheads or face impeachment.
These idiots have no idea what they would set in motion if they were to try multiple mass casualty strikes. They would likely have signed the death warrants of most of the people they know.
If they wanted to do something truly "heroic", they would save their people and their families from this retribution and total annihilation by turning on and turning in the madmen who are leading them down this path . . .
They might even be granted a personal "amnesty" if they acted now, before it is too late . . .
Desired Outcome
Timed for maximal effectiveness in coordination with one or more regional military operations conducted by their state sponsor(s).
Wouldn't it be a "kick" if someone could trace one of the laptop photos to the movements of the Iranian diplomatic personnel in NYC that were expelled both last year, and again just last month (an Iranian instead of an AQ surveillance cell)?
I'm see where you are going and agree that some degree of operations control has been put down lower. However, I am skeptical about both the scope (40 - 50 states) and level (med guerilla). I don't think the junior people have the skills yet to pull something that big off. If perchance they did, PC would go out the window pretty quick as we start rounding up any and all moslems and local militas start counter striking. Again, I don't think we are anywhere near that level. I do suspect that they are capable of launching a limited strike - say 6 targets with truck bombs and perhaps some chemicals mixed in - increase terror factor by setting off the detectors.
I'm trying to gather some info on NK's new boat and Venezuelan movements.
The Israeli security situation WRT to the dome is worth keeping an eye on. The 14th (next Friday) may be interesting in that neck of the woods.
I don't have a lot to say yet.
If it walks like a duck, etc.
"Their ability to engage in limited guerilla warfare operations is beyond question, and they have the capability to conduct localized operations in about 40 states as we speak. If they are in some kind of agreement state with Hamas and Hizbullah, they can combine forces and project operations in all 50 states."(judicial meanz)
I fully agree with that statement. I can feel it from most of the ME's I cross paths with. They are up to something.