American Research Group Poll: Kerry 49%, Bush 46% (Was Kerry 49%, Bush 45% BEFORE convention)

American Research Group ^ | 8/2/04

[cake_crumb]

"Or HAIRY KERRY?"

LOL!

[chainsaw]

Ya gotta love it. Bush gets a 1 point bump out of the democrtic convention.

[cake_crumb]

"Ya gotta love it. Bush gets a 1 point bump out of the democrtic convention."

...While the Democrat nominee bounces like a ball of Play Doh

[dvwjr]

Originally posted by Eva:

"There is no information about how the poll was weighted. The polls are meaninngless without that information."

Here is the political affiliation breakdowns for the current and previous American Research Group three-way polls...

Actual  ARG  Poll  Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All  polls  Registered  Voters
Jun  29-July  1,  2004		29.7%	30.2%	40.1%	773	44.0%	47.0%	3.0%	6.0%
July  30-August  1,  2004		33.0%	34.5%	32.5%	776	45.0%	49.0%	2.0%	4.0%

For comparison here are the Newsweek/PSRAI political affiliation breakdowns for the last four presidential three-way polls.

Actual  Newsweek  Poll  Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All  polls  Registered  Voters
March  18-19,  2004		35.3%	33.4%	31.3%	838	45.47%	43.44%	5.49%	5.60%
May  13-14,  2004		30.8%	34.7%	34.5%	832	42.43%	43.39%	5.41%	8.77%
July  8-9,  2004		28.5%	27.5%	44.1%	1,001	43.56%	47.45%	3.40%	5.59%
July  29-30,  2004		28.9%	37.1%	34.0%	1,010	42.28%	49.01%	3.07%	5.64%

dvwjr

[Nataku X]

Very good job as usual dvwjr. I love your colorful tables.

I'm most interested in the movement of independents.

[Tall_Texan]

Thanks. Basically tells me there's no bump at all. Just a direct correlation between the number of Republicans and Democrats they poll versus the results they get.

[Nataku X]

LOL. Best pun in a long time!

[labard1]

Thank you!