[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 274 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 264 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 264.28 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly TradeSports.com Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[Bikers4Bush]

Bush spent the weekend here in Ohio. At one point on talk radio they were joking about how the campaigns might actually pass each other on route 71.

His frenchiness was here this weekend as well.

[My2Cents]

Not much of a change from the 2000 vote. Do folks really believe Bush will lose New Hampshire?

[mattdono]

So, right now, Bush is winning 29 states to 22.

To bad the polling is not done by counties. Thinking about the red/blue map from 2000, I think that the only places that Kerry really has a lock are the urban hotspots (NYC, Philly, Chicago, Detroit, etc.).

Funny how Kerry can parade around saying that the country is with him not the President, when the country doesn't support Kerry at all...just the urban hot spots, which have never been and hopefully never will be the declared intentions of our country.

City-fied morons.

[jdege]

I hope we start seeing the turnaround soon.

Date	Prob. Bush Win	Mean EVs	Std. Dev.
01/21	96.8%	341.5	41.1
01/26	95.5%	334.8	40.6
02/02	92.2%	323.8	39.7
02/09	83.0%	307.8	40.3
02/16	78.4%	300.4	39.4
02/23	76.2%	298.2	39.6
03/01	74.5%	295.9	39.3
03/08	68.0%	289.2	39.8
03/15	68.0%	288.8	39.0
03/22	68.5%	289.3	38.8
03/29	69.4%	290.1	38.8
04/05	71.2%	292.3	39.1
04/12	70.4%	290.6	38.1
04/19	68.6%	288.1	36.7
04/26	64.9%	284.5	36.3
05/03	66.3%	285.7	36.3
05/10	65.6%	285.3	36.8
05/17	65.2%	284.8	36.6
05/24	60.0%	280.3	36.9
05/31	61.1%	281.2	36.8
06/07	60.5%	280.6	36.5
06/14	65.0%	285.0	36.6
06/21	63.9%	284.0	36.8
06/28	58.4%	278.8	36.7
07/05	58.7%	279.1	36.7
07/12	53.1%	274.2	36.5
07/19	48.2%	269.8	35.7
07/26	43.4%	265.6	35.0
08/02	42.1%	264.3	34.7

[COEXERJ145]

The funny thing is that several polls have shown Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota to be tossups or even Bush slightly ahead in a few of the polls and yet all three states are shown mild to strong for Lurch.

[The_Macallan]

Colorado is poised to really mess things up by splitting their electoral votes 5 votes for GWBush, 4 votes for Kerry - rather than all nine votes for GWBush as projected by all polls.

That would give Kerry 271 and the win.

Be afraid - be very afraid.


Plan would dump Colorado's winner-take-all vote in Nov.
Colorado could become the first state to scrap its winner-take-all system of casting electoral college votes for president and replace it with one based on a percentage of the popular vote.

The measure would go into effect immediately for this year's presidential battle if voters approve.

[Salvation]

I don't think Kerry will take Oregon.

[dalebert]

I am hoping for a wider spread in favor of Bush after the convention.

[Vigilantcitizen]

On the straight up Bush wins board, the President is up to 56.5, up 3.5 from yesterday. Biggest one day jump in awhile.

Right before the Kerry appearance at the Bosox-Yankee game, Bush's numbers hit a lifetime low of 49. The numbers have been steadily climbing since.