But what about the energy and resurces I'm saving by not buying a new car? ;-)
Posted on 07/31/2004 1:48:26 PM PDT by SunkenCiv
Chief among the pessimists is the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, a group of European scientists who estimate that maximum oil production around the globe will peak in 2008 as demand rises from developing economies such as China... Others believe, like Maugeri, that the number of glasses is virtually limitless. John Felmy, chief economist at the American Petroleum Institute, argues that peak oil- production estimates are so far off that for all practical purposes we might as well act as if oil will flow forever. "Ever since oil was first harvested in the 1800s, people have said we'd run out of the stuff," Felmy says. In the 1880s a Standard Oil executive sold off shares in the company out of fear that its reserves were close to drying up. The Club of Rome, a nonprofit global think tank, said in the 1970s that we'd hit peak oil in 2003. It didn't happen.
(Excerpt) Read more at popsci.com ...
China was a net exporter of crude oil not long ago. Now it imports oil, not because production is down but because their economy is becoming developed. The same thing is happening in India, and together those two countries have about half of the entire population of the world.
The world currently consumes about 12.5 terrawatts of energy, but it is projected to consume 100 terrawatts of energy by the end of this century. That's equivalent to the production capacity of an additional 51 Saudi Arabias per year.
Not even the most optimistic oilman thinks that we're going to we're going to make those kinds of discoveries during this century.
We're certainly not going to make up that shortfall in energy supplies with windmills, biomass, or solar energy. There is only one source of energy that can make up that gap. Nuclear.
Perhaps we can harness fusion energy someday, and that will be the ultimate answer. But until then, energy will largely come from hydrocarbons and nuclear power. We will have to build more nuclear plants in America. We will have no choice.
Well said!
better than orange juice. ;'@
I agree, but for different reasons.
In my opinion, it's not a question of finding the reserves.
It's a question of being able to produce those reserves at the capacity necessary to keep up with world development.
Our industry has been running scared since the mid-80s.
I see it everyday, as I'm sure you do.
We don't have the equipment or the manpower to handle boom times because no one is confident that the price will hold long enough to recoup their investment.
We just moved a 20,000' rig 450 miles to drill a 12,000' well, and we've been waiting on this (or any rig) for over a month.
Rigs are tight, and manpower is tighter.
Casing is becoming scarce, and it's going to get worse as China consumes the steel production of the world.
Every service company is faced with the same dilemma - turning away work because of the lack of equipment and people - but they're afraid. They got burned too bad in the 80s to view this present volatile market as long term.
It will be interesting what happens when oil hits $75 a barrel and hangs there.
Yes, that is part of Peak Oil theory--things that affect the cost of production of oil. We can station our armies in the oilfields. The day is coming that oil will be so expensive that stationing armies will do no good.
Then thee and me have a completely different idea of what constitutes "Peak Oil". To me, "Peak Oil" means that we are actually running short of oil in the ground, which is not true, and unlikely to BE true any time in the foreseeable future. Virtually ALL of the things affecting the price of oil today have zip to do with the actual oil reserves, but political factors driving up the price or preventing access to existing reserves.
Peak Oil does not say we are running short of oil in the ground. We are running short of cheap, easy oil in the ground. Under the best circumstances we have 12-1/2 years before we fly off the cliff. If the Arabs go nuts, our time would be shortened.
But what about the energy and resurces I'm saving by not buying a new car? ;-)
Bring it up to date. Add a 'roo bar.
Sorry, but that is simply bullshit. I'm from an oil-producing state, my sister-in-law is a petroleum geologist, and my wife taught petroleum engineering, so I have at least a passing familiarity with the industry. Add to that the fact that my current business partner spent his whole career at Shell. NONE of them agree with your "Peak Oil" position. The HUGE advances in oil seismic location and drilling technology makes the supply of "cheap, easy" oil larger than ever. Directional drilling alone is making it possible to recover large amounts of oil from "already explored" territories for LOWER cost. There are VAST areas of the world that have not ever even been SURVEYED for oil, muxh less produced.
Of course, that won't happen as long as the Saudi's can produce oil for a dollar or two a barrel and sell it for $43 dollars. They can drive anyone with higher operating costs out of business in short order.
I was one of those who built the Alaska pipeline and Prudhoe. I have heard a lot of BS myself.
There is a secret substance that you must drink before you can see the martian banyan trees :o)
Energy crisis ping / BTTT -- the process described isn't electrolysis, it's just a way to corral the atomic hydrogen present in most water, adding an electron (and no oxygen), and making it into molecular hydrogen (H2).The Subatomic Assembly of H2My first exercise in hydrogen production was to drop a 9-volt battery into a cup of water. (Hey, I was only 12 -- what do you expect?) Amazingly, it worked: I had managed to assemble pure hydrogen gas out of subatomic particles! The protons came from the water itself, which always has a bunch of them running around loose (naked protons are also called hydrogen ions). The electrons came from the battery. When I injected (well, plunged) the electrons into the water, they latched onto the protons to form a few small bubbles of hydrogen gas... From there I added salt to the water to increase its conductivity, thereby increasing the flow of current and the number of electrons available to pair up with all those wild protons. I crimped wires to the battery terminals for the same reason... I now use graphite rods: They last forever and are wonderfully cheap... Once they're sanded clean and soldered to a 9V battery clip, they produce great billowing clouds of hydrogen (and oxygen -- one gas from each electrode) for the life of the battery (which is only a couple of minutes -- there's a serious amount of current flowing now)... The gas bubbling off the negative electrode crackles and flashes: That's hydrogen.
by Theodore Gray
December 2003
George W. Bush will win reelection by a margin of at least ten per cent.
Election 2004 topics list
Like I'm supposed to believe anything these people who promised me a personal plane with a programmable autopilot tell me.
George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent
The Oil Age will last until something else takes its place.
Fossil Fuels Made without Fossils
Credit: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
9/13/2004 5:01 PM | Gabe Romain
Posted on 10/28/2004 10:55:18 PM PDT by SunkenCiv
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/1261047/posts
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.