Conservative Trails in Alaska Senate Polls

Daily News-Miner ^ | July 29, 2004 | TOM MORAN, Staff Writer

[Amish]

Article Published: Thursday, July 29, 2004 Miller confident of Fairbanks' support

By TOM MORAN, Staff Writer

U.S. Senate candidate Mike Miller of North Pole has declared Fairbanks firmly in his hands for the August Republican primary and said he will spend much of the final month before the contest campaigning in the rest of the state. "Fairbanks is not necessarily a problem for us," Miller said Wednesday. "I definitely expect to win Fairbanks."

That's not an opinion shared by Murkowski campaign spokesperson Kristin Pugh, who expects Murkowski to win in every region of the state, including Fairbanks. But Murkowski herself said last week that she isn't taking anything for granted, and has multiple visits to Fairbanks and many other areas planned to encourage her supporters to get to the polls on Aug. 24.

"I'm spending the time, energy and resources it's going to take to have a good showing in the primary," she said.

Miller, an 18-year former state legislator, said Wednesday he's "being told" that he will take Fairbanks as well as the Matanuska-Susitna Valley and the Kenai Peninsula, arguably the three most conservative areas in Alaska. Miller is billing himself as the conservative alternative to Murkowski and her presumed Democratic opponent, former Gov. Tony Knowles.

The polls, on the other hand, don't bear out most of Miller's assertions. According to Dave Dittman, who has been polling for Murkowski, Fairbanks is the only part of Alaska where Miller is outpolling the incumbent, and even there just slightly.

"He's a little ahead in Fairbanks, and way behind everywhere else," Dittman said.

Dittman said his last statewide poll showed Murkowski beating Miller 54 percent to 21 percent statewide among likely Republican primary voters, with fellow Republican candidates Wev Shea and Jim Dore polling 7 and 1 percent. The rest are undecided. He said those numbers had remained fairly static since he began monthly polling on the topic in April.

[comebacknewt]

The RATs will take this seat if the GOP doesn't unite behind a candidate soon. It is almost unthinkable that AK could send a RAT to the Senate this year, but the Pubbies may screw this up yet. (sigh)

[GiveEmDubya]

Murkowski has been coming back in the polls against Knowles. Bush's coattails should be enough in Alaska to push the GOP candidate over the top but whomever gets nominated better drop the hammer quickly and get on to winning the general election or else this primary will be doing Knowles a favor.

[phil_will1]

This is one of the more vulnerable senate seats for republicans this year. Does anyone know how Colorado is shaping up?

[TheBigB]

I'm worried about the CO and AK seats. Illinois is gone. I think Pete Coors would be our best bet in Colorado, but I haven't seen a poll from there in quite a while.

[mwl1]

Bush will have decent coattails in both CO and AK. Whether they will be enough to carry Coors and Murkowski remains to be seen. However, I believe we will carry both states.

Everyone in 2002 said that Senator Allard was toast in Colorado. He won comfortably.

[K1avg]

It's basically the same story down here in Florida. McCollum and Martinez are effectively tied (and Gallagher and Byrd still have about 10% each) with a month till the primary.

Luckily, the Dems are having to fight through a primary too. We'll see how this one turns out though. The Times-Union (Jacksonville) reported on polls the other day showing Martinez and Castor (leading Dem) tied and McCollum behind by a few points.

Another big race may be shaping up in South Dakota, where Thune has Daschle running for his political life.

[GiveEmDubya]

The only person I can think of who might know about the CO Senate race is JohnnyZ. What say you?

[TheBigB]

Everyone in 2002 said that Senator Allard was toast in Colorado. He won comfortably.

This is true, and it gives me some optimism. However, Allard was the incumbent, with all the built-in advantages that brings (and he had already beaten Strickland once), and the Dem this year (Atty Gen Ken Salazar) is very, very popular from what I hear.

[Integrityrocks]

"The RATs will take this seat if the GOP doesn't unite behind a candidate soon. It is almost unthinkable that AK could send a RAT to the Senate this year, but the Pubbies may screw this up yet."

That's why I am voting for Lisa Merkowski. I actually would prefer Mike Miller. He's a better Republican, but I don't want to split the vote. On the other hand. In terms of ALASKA'S needs. If Tony Knowles got it, he is not the worst person I can think of. BUT! As a US Senator, he's still a Dem and that's one Dem too many.

[JohnnyZ]

I don't think Colorado, and Alaska to some extent, will really shape up until after the primary.

Alaska Primary: August 24th
Colorado Primary: August 10th

I expect Alaskans to come home on Lisa Murkowski's side when all's said and done. Colorado will be slightly uphill for the GOP nominee, I think.

[southernnorthcarolina]

U.S. Senate candidate Mike Miller of North Pole...

North Pole? There's actually a town by the name of North Pole?

I wonder who the most famous resident is going to vote for...

[reed13]

We're having a similar issue with 3 Republicans still in a fight over who gets to take on Fiendgold.

[reed13]

ooops - in Wisconsin

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Bush's coattails should be enough in Alaska to push the GOP candidate over the top but whomever gets nominated better drop the hammer quickly and get on to winning the general election or else this primary will be doing Knowles a favor."

---

I agree on both counts. At the end of the day, whichever Republican wins the nomination (probably Murkowski) will end up winning by at least 5%. Kerry won't get more that 33% in Alaska, and there's no way Tony Knowles can win over that many Republican votes in a U.S. Senate race. I can't figure out why people claim that Knowles is so formidable; he was first elected with just 42.3% when two different Republicans ran in the general election (one ran under the "Moderate Republican" label, and in 1998 he won reelection with only 51.3% even though the GOP candidate was disauthorized bu the party and the Republican turnout was way down (a write-in Republican ended up in second place with just 18%). And in a state like Alaska, running for the Senate is much more difficult for a Democrat than running for the governorship, since Alaskans despise national Democrats, especially since they keep blocking drilling for oil in ANWR. Knowles supports ANWR drilling, but has failed miserably in every attempt to convince Daschle to let the bill pass, and in the end Alaskans are not going to send to Washington someone who will increase the Democrats' clout in the Senate.

[JohnnyZ]

about the CO Senate race

Recently I haven't heard anything.

The latest poll I saw was a month ago:

Salazar 47
Coors 40

Salazar 49
Schaffer 35

800 RVs, Mason-Dixon, June 15-18

300 likely primary voters favored Coors 39-35

[GiveEmDubya]

The primary is coming up fast but there's not much news about the race and the jury's still out on the nomination. In other words, the race is at status quo.

[KriegerGeist]

Another big race may be shaping up in South Dakota, where Thune has Daschle running for his political life.

If the "Democratic machine" in South Dakota could bring Johnson from 500 votes behind Thune to 500 ahead at the last minute in 2000, they can do it again unless their is some voter registration changes or keep a very close watch on voter fraud there in November.

[KriegerGeist]

Illinois is gone.

Are the Republicans not going to put up a candidate against Barak Osama? I don't blame them if they don't...I mean Ditka was no fool in that, but will this guy just run unopposed?

[phil_will1]

"Another big race may be shaping up in South Dakota, where Thune has Daschle running for his political life."

Best news I have heard all day - knocking off Daschle would be HUGE. I have never understood how the 2 Dakotas, which voted strongly republican in the last several Presidential races, send 4 Democratic senators between them to DC.