Strategy Memo: Strategic and Political Update: MO, MI, OH, PA

George W. Bush ^ | July 30, 2004

[RWR8189]

To:       Interested Parties
FR:       BC '04 Strategy & Political
Re:       Strategic and Political Update

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Missouri: Kerry Campaign Questioning Whether They Can Compete In Missouri

• The Kerry campaign has recognized the President’s strong position in Missouri and adjusted its spending accordingly.  Kerry recently reduced the size of his advertising buys in Missouri, a sign that his campaign may not be seriously competing in the state.  
   
• Recent polling shows the race in Missouri to be extremely close.  The Gallup poll of July 19-22 shows President Bush and John Kerry to be in a dead heat, tied at 48% among likely voters. 
   
• The economy in Missouri is strong and growing stronger.  Over the past year, 63,000 new jobs have been created in Missouri and the unemployment rate has dropped from 5.8% to 5.2%. 
   
• The campaign has built an unprecedented grassroots organization in Missouri.  Bush-Cheney '04 now has over 32,000 volunteers in Missouri, including over 1,300 in Springfield alone.  90% of precincts in Missouri (3,544) now have precinct chairs, and 100% of target precincts (1,447) have chairs.   

Michigan: Kerry Camp Sees Michigan As Deadlocked - A State Gore Won By 5 Points

• The race in Michigan remains highly competitive.  Recent polling from Strategic Vision (July 13 to 17) and EPIC/MRA (July 6 to 8) has shown the race to be essentially tied, with Kerry holding a small lead within the polls' margin of error (two points and three points, respectively).
   
• President Bush recently visited Marquette for a rally on the Michigan’s traditionally Democratic Upper Peninsula.  He attracted an audience of over 11,000, a sign that his support is strong in one of Michigan's Democratic strongholds.
   
• In the first three days after the Democratic convention, John Kerry will travel to Michigan - a sign that his campaign is growing nervous about the state.      
   
• Anticipating this close race, Bush-Cheney '04 built an unprecedented grassroots organization in Michigan.  The campaign now has over 46,000 volunteers in Michigan, including almost 1,900 volunteers in Grand Rapids alone.  Over half of all precincts (2,509) in Michigan have been assigned a precinct chair and 91% of our target precincts (1,967) now have chairs.  

Ohio: A Very Close State in 2000, Stays Close in 2004

• President Bush and John Kerry remain locked in a close race in Ohio as well.  The latest Columbus Dispatch poll (July 14-23) shows President Bush holding a narrow lead over John Kerry, 47% to 45%.  The poll also showed that a majority of Ohio voters, 52%, approve of President Bush’s job performance.  This is confirmed by the recent Strategic Vision poll (July 17-19), which showed President Bush leading Kerry by 4 points, 48% to 44%. 
   
• The same Columbus Dispatch poll in July 2000 showed then-Governor Bush and Al Gore in a tie as well, 41% to 40%, although George Bush later went on to win the state by 4 points, 50% to 46%. 
   
• Since March 3rd, Kerry and left-leaning 527 groups have spent over $17 million in Ohio, compared to BC '04’s $9 million.  Kerry and his shadow campaign have outspent Bush-Cheney by almost a 2 to 1 margin, and have nothing to show for it - the race remains essentially tied in Ohio. 
   
• Despite being massively outspent, President Bush is still in a very strong position in Ohio, and of the reasons is because of our tremendous grassroots organization there.  Bush-Cheney '04 now has over 52,000 volunteers in Ohio.  Almost two-thirds of all precincts in Ohio (7,575) have precincts chairs, including 88% of target precincts (4,964).   

Pennsylvania: Kerry Camp Sees Pennsylvania Having Moved Toward President Bush Over The Last Four Years

• John Kerry's first stops in the two days after the conclusion of the Democratic convention will be in Pennsylvania. 
   
• History suggests that even though some polls may show the President trailing in Pennsylvania today, he finishes strongly there.  In August 2000, a Decision Forecasting poll showed Al Gore leading then Governor Bush by 14 points, 51% to 37%, but Gore’s margin narrowed to just 5 points by Election Day.  
   
• Pennsylvania's economy is strong and growing stronger.  Over the past year, over 68,000 new jobs have been created in Pennsylvania and per capita incomes have risen by $882 to an average of $31,998. 
   
• Anticipating this close race, Bush-Cheney '04 has built an unprecedented grassroots organization in Pennsylvania.  The campaign now has over 40,000 volunteers in Pennsylvania.  Over sixty percent of all precincts (5,837) in Pennsylvania have been assigned a precinct chair and 96% of our target precincts (3,168) now have chairs.

[finnman69]

Interesting

[Coop]

Good work! ;-)

[Coop]

I found especially interesting the nearly 2:1 spending ratio for the Dems and their lackeys. Not exactly money well spent. [grin]

[massadvj]

Basically, it's what we all know. Kerry has to hold everything Gore won and then win one of: Missouri, Florida or Ohio. I think Florida is a nonstarter for Bush this time around. So that leaves Missouri and Ohio as "must defend" states for Bush. It's hard to imagine sKerry winning either one.

[BlackRazor]

Kerry has to hold everything Gore won and then win one of: Missouri, Florida or Ohio.

That'd be the cleanest way for Kerry to win. But he could also do it by keeping all the Gore states and taking New Hampshire (regional candidate), West Virginia (historically a Dem state) and Nevada (Yucca Mountain). That would give Kerry a 274-264 electoral college win.

[genghis]

in 92, willie was 24 pts up after the convention and won by i think 6.
in 88 dukakis was up 17 and lost by 11.
if qerry is up by 3 or less- he is in big trouble and we are looking at an 88 style landslide.
If the media gets wind of this and goes after that guy- we are looking at 72.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Not exactly money well spent. [grin]"

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I disagree. Kerry is trying to get to 270, not finish a respectable second. Getting to 270 without winning Ohio is a very difficult proposition for him, and I would throw the kitchen sink at the state if I were him. His problem is that he really doesn't have much to offer Ohio voters, especially with the economy continuing to improve.

Kerry needs to make a last stand in OH, PA, WV, MI, MN, WI, IA and MO if he is to have a chance to win. Kerry needs at least 71 electoral votes from those 8 states, and even if he nails down the Gore states of PA, MI, MN, WI and IA (which is no sure thing for him, since his lead in those states has usually been between 1%-3%) and picks up WV (where he's currently up by only 3%), he would still be stuck at 70 EVs there, which even if he also carried tossups NH, ME, NM and OR would leave him at 269 overall, which would mean that Bush would be elected by the House. So spending all that money in Ohio and surrounding states is something Kerry has to do if he truly wants to win the election.

[Coop]

I think you misunderstood my point. I don't fault Kerry for contesting Ohio; even the GOP publicly admits it's fertile territory for him. I meant that spending all that money didn't really move the polling numbers at all.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I meant that spending all that money didn't really move the polling numbers at all."

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Oh, I see what you mean. Yes, you're certainly correct, in April, Kerry was down by 1% in Ohio, and is now down 3% in the state, so his $17 million didn't help him at all.

[hchutch]

Worst case, Bush wins 274-264. I think West Virginia will hold once Kerry's gun-control record is out there.

I think it's more likely that while Bush loses NH, he picks up IA, MN, WI, OR, and NM, plus one of ME's EVs. That gives him a 314-224 win in the electoral college.

[TNCMAXQ]

I would advise the Bush-Cheney camp to pour tons of resources into a large state or 2 they did not win the last time so that would offset a possible loss in NH, WV, or NV. Though I hope we will carry all 3. I would recommend trying everything to win MI, or concentrate less on MI but go for WI and MN. Polls show all these states are close and a GOP win is achievable. IA is closer than I would have thought too. With a little luck GWB can get 300 EV's or more.

[ride the whirlwind]

President Bush recently visited Marquette for a rally on the Michigan’s traditionally Democratic Upper Peninsula. He attracted an audience of over 11,000, a sign that his support is strong in one of Michigan's Democratic strongholds.

Very interesting. I was at this rally and the excitement level was through the roof. That said, a lot of the attendees came from more republican areas of the U.P. than Marquette itself. But I am still very hopeful that GWB can pull out a win in MI.

[RFT1]

A couple of flaws heere. One, Perot dropped out in early July, and were all over the place in terms of the polls in the Summer of 92.

As for 88, Dukakis self destructed, ran the worst campaign in the post WWII era, and while Kerry can do that, the GOP should not count on Kerry self destructing like Dukakis is. It is allways bad on hoping ones opponent self destructs instead of playing offense.