Posted on 07/30/2004 6:36:51 AM PDT by jmstein7
Excuse me but the primary objective of someone running against an incumbant is to convince voters that the incumbant should not be reelected. Only then does the opponent attempt to convince them that they are a safe alternative. I wouldnt gloat over the fact that Kerry's numbers didnt go up in the short term. It is bad news that he drove Bush's negatives up and cost Bush votes.
Unless one candidate screws up badly or outside events take place that shake up the race (terrorist attack), then most of the undecideds probably wont decide until a week or so before the election.
How much of a bump over the weeks before?
If the DEms had trained their voters how to vote properly we would have a President Gore today and Zogby would have been right. Something like 25,000 idiots were bussed in to the polls in Northern Florida and then told to punch the chad for Gore and then write in Lieberman. All of their ballots were tossed. Bush won because his voters had an average IQ higher than room temperature.
This can't be good news for Kerry. So far, he has failed to achieve any bounce at all from two events which should have given his campaign SOMETHING to cheer about.
As it currently stands, not only did the addition of Edwards fail to bring any bounce to the campaign, Edwards may not even be able to deliver NC to the Kerry side.
Ah but you overlook the 30 second sound bytes on the evening news and all the laudatory comments about how well Kerry did by the fawning media. If they had actually watched there would probably be less bounce than if they just watched the reporting of the convention on the evening news.
Kerry did not hit the home run everybody was anticipating...either that, or they haven't woke up yet.
Sure Kerry's winning in the south. South Boston!
Bush still dropped a couple points, though Kerry didn't gain.
I take his polls online about every three weeks when he sends them out. I have been doing this all during the 90's when Clinton was in office and now, during this four years. Zogby has a Democratic slant, and is an Arab as we all know. His questions are tricky so you what what you say and remember what you said on the last ones. His latest poll which I took yesterday reflects the poll numbers from the conflab in Boston. I also had a call last week from the Zogby folks.
CNN had highest score during convention. Stands to reason.
Why would there be a bounce if no one except the political junkies watched the convention? I don't think undecideds were tuning in to make up their minds.
WooHoo!! Bring on the Republican convention!!
Wouldn't that be a DEAD HAMSTER bounce?
Zogby was the first pollster during the 2000 election to say Gore won....before the polls were closed. He was wrong and the counting that went on and on and on and on proved him to be wrong.
Richard Gere is deeply saddened. Wait! - or is that a gerbil?
We still LOST SOME GROUND. 43 to 48 percent vs. 46 to 48 earlier.
So yes, Kerry did have a slight bounce by taking support away from Bush and putting it in the undecided category.
However, this is a VERY SMALL bounce....so far...that will not help Kerry much.
Also, Kerry did not gain any percentage points remarkably...just the undecideds went up a bit. They should cement for Bush at the GOP convention I hope.
In any event, this may be too early to see any real bounce yet.
The undecideds are so small that the bounce just can't be more than 8 points or so because that is all the undecideds that there are. If a poll next weeks shows that much of a bounce for Kerry even, I will be concerned. It will show that most of the undecideds like what he is saying even if they will flip flop back to Bush later.
But, I am now expecting a bounce of 5 points or less.
yeah his speech last night definatly suck the brain cells out.
There aren't many swing voters this year.
Most everybody has already chosen the Bush or Kerry camp. That is why, unless those Bush votes switch to Kerry instead of undecided, I am not too concerned and don't expect a big bounce.
There will be a bounce...it never fails. But, how big? Probably 5 points or smaller...probably close to 5 though.
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