Posted on 07/30/2004 12:00:37 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Many pleading with candidate to bow out of race
BOSTON - Sen. John Kerry may be flying high coming out of the Democratic National Convention, but a big question looms for his fall campaign: What about Ralph Nader?
The independent presidential candidate is blamed for siphoning enough votes from Al Gore in 2000 that Gore lost the election to Republican George W. Bush.
This year, with the Kerry-versus-Bush race shaping up as a close one, Nader is still considered a threat.
Officially, Kerry says he's going to beat Nader the old-fashioned way — by winning over voters.
Behind the scenes, though, the Democratic Party is begging Nader to bow out. When begging proves futile, party lawyers file suit trying to keep the left-leaning consumer advocate off the ballot.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe has asked Nader to join with Democrats or step aside. Organizers of this week's convention ignored his request for media credentials to attend the party's gathering in Boston.
Former presidential contenders Howard Dean and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich have urged Naderites to get onboard with Kerry.
"What I see in (Nader's) candidacy is the perfect becoming the enemy of the good," said Dean, whose populist appeal early in the presidential primaries echoed the pitch Nader has been making for years.
Kucinich, who also agrees with Nader on a wide range of issues, last week urged his supporters to side with Kerry.
"If there is room for me in the (Democratic) party and the Kerry-Edwards campaign, there is certainly room for Ralph and for his supporters," the congressman said.
Republicans have been working behind the scenes to get Nader on the ballot in at least five states, believing he's much more likely to pull voters away from Kerry than Bush.
So far, the tactic has worked in at least two key states — Michigan and Arizona.
Nader vows to stay in the race until the polls close on Nov. 2.
If Kerry can't win without his help, he says, what good is he?
And his supporters bristle at the idea that Nader was a spoiler in the 2000 election.
"They're a bunch of whiners," said Kevin Zeese, spokesman for Nader for President. "Blaming Ralph is just a way to scapegoat."
Zeese said Nader knows he's got no chance of actually winning this year, but he wants to inject his own sense of "reality" into the political discourse.
Nader believes he can erode Bush's base by targeting economic conservatives, Zeese said, adding that Kerry could become a better candidate if he is forced to address issues of importance to Nader supporters.
"I tell people, 'Demand something of Kerry,' " Zeese said. "Don't just give him your vote for free."
Richard Murray, a political scientist at the University of Houston, said Nader, who got 2.7 percent of the total vote in 2000, cost Gore enough votes in Florida and possibly New Hampshire to swing the election to Bush.
Nader's impact this year is unlikely to be as dramatic, Murray said, in part because Bush has moved much further to the right than expected, scaring independents. And as a perennial candidate, Nader is unlikely to do as well the second time around, Murray said.
Still, no one is taking that for granted.
Linda Myers, a delegate from Michigan, said polls show between 2 percent and 3 percent of voters in Michigan supporting Nader, enough to tip the balance in favor of Bush.
Democratic activists have been going door to door, she said, telling people: "A Nader vote is a vote for Bush."
"It's working," she said. "People are changing their minds."
Yeah! Right! Blame it on Ralph!
I am the ghost of elections never... never does Nader decide elections.
Nader flipped only one state in 2000, Florida. Of course, that was a rather key flip. Odds are, he will flip nothing in 2004. Indeed, he is pulling per the polls only a bit more from Kerry than from Bush. But then that was the case in 2000.
President Bush needs to be leading by Naders + Kerry's votes.
While I agree Nader will stay in it till the end I think he definitely will be less effective. The mainstream press will also marginalize Nader much much more than 2000. He could hurt Bush by drawing more people to the polls who will change their vote to Kerry in the last minute. That being said you can't blame Nader for Gore losing, because many of those voters were not going to vote for Gore anyways.
Gotta love that confidence. "At 7:01 PM, I'm out the door!"
Seriously though, since Kerry's trying to run to the right of Bush, the field for Nader should be wide open. Kerry's only message is "I'm not Bush". Well guess what? Neither is Ralph Nader.
It is amusing that the party of the oppressed little guy and champions of free speech are using such strong arm tactics to keep Nader off the ballot. Like I'm supposed to ask some guy collecting signatures to prove he has residency in my state and hasn't been convicted of a felony. Meanwhile, every ballot in Florida is given an anal exam to try to determine "the intent of the voter".
If Nader wasn't such an insufferable prick, I'd feel sorry for him.
Not to worry. His mother loves him.
To paraphrase FRD, "The only person Democrats have to fear is, Kerry himself!"
Now that you mention it, he does kinda look like Tony Perkins.
Pleading hasn't been at the forefront of the Democratic agenda!
I'm skeptical of this postings sincerity without the word "hope" being used.
It's going to be interesting to the NADER bump in the polls.
He also flipped New Hampshire if you agree with the premise that Nader voters would have split 3:1 in favor of Gore. But I agree with you that Nader won't flip anything this November.
I'm predicting Nader will get a 5 point bump this next week in the polls.
GO RALPH GO!
No, the polls showed, and Nader will tell you himself, that 40% of his votes would have gone to Gore, 25% to Bush (like my mother), and the rest would not have voted or voted for some other third party candidate. Thus, you need to multiply his vote count vote 15% to see the net vote pickup for Gore. Nader's voters this year are also splitting somewhat evenly. The impression that most of the Nader votes would have been Gore votes is a myth.
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