>>I think the first post being a vanity is one of them
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It's a vanity, and there's not even mention of cheese, or Anna or a moose. I mean, why'd the poster take the time to type up the stuff . . . |
Posted on 07/29/2004 7:23:39 AM PDT by Truth is a Weapon
This is my first posting. I will try to to break the rules.
Here is my theory about the Bush-Cheney ’04 campaign—its history and future. This theory comes from an ordinary conservative man with absolutely no inside tracks on what is really happening at the campaign. I, like many of you, have often wondered why the BC04 campaign was not more aggressive in its assault against Kerry-Edwards. Were they really trying to emulate the Bush 41 failed campaign? Then, a thought occurred to me—“Lautenberg.”
If BC04 drives down Kerry’s poll numbers before he is officially the nominee, the Dems might just pull a switch and suddenly the campaign is facing a different opponent. Then all that research and background information obtained on Kerry would be wasted. We all know from what we have read on the Free Republic that there is ample material for “Willie Horton” type of advertising and campaigning. I won’t even attempt to catalog all the things Kerry has done that should disqualify him in the minds of your average American voter. And the Democrat Party seems to be blind to this fact. For Rove et al, Kerry, next to Howard Dean, is probably the dream opponent.
Well, anyway, after tonight’s acceptance speech, Kerry will be the official nominee of the Democrats. And no matter how weak his campaign subsequently becomes there is no practical way to switch candidates without enormous costs. What worked in New Jersey in 2002 just won’t play across the country.
Therefore, it is my gut feeling that BC04 will come out swinging for the bleachers in August. I may be wrong about this but GWB is a competitor and warrior. He knows that to win he must focus on 270 electoral votes. The administration has successfully toppled two governments; put an international terrorist group on the ropes and converted Libya and Pakistan from hostile governments to cooperators. The BC04 campaign can certainly win the necessary battleground states to mount an electoral victory. Like France and Germany, New York, Massachusetts and the popular vote are not necessary to achieving the objective.
Anyway, I guess time will prove or disprove this theory. But I will be holding my breath just a bit until John Kerry says, “I accept the nomination.” At this point I take comfort that Kerry’s ego and ambition has that train rolling downhill at breakneck speed. Sorry that I could not re-read and edit this but I must run catch a plane.
Nothing Kerry has done differs dramatically from what Bill Clinton did, and the voting public overlooked it. You are forgetting that a growing plurality of voters now thinks there is such a thing as a free lunch, and Bush has done absolutely nothing to dispel the notion. In fact, he has encouraged it with more spending on education, prescription drugs, aids relief for Africa, jobs for illegal immigrants, tariffs for the manufacturing workers, etc.
So the campaign has come down to who will hand out the most goodies to constituents in battleground states and very little else. Bush will basically campaign on the notion that while Kerry talks the talk of a socialist, Bush has actually delivered the goods. And he will be correct.
Unfortunately, those of us who believe in less government will be left out in the cold, but we are lemmings who get a sense of empowerment out of knowing our party's guy is in office. It's like having your team win the Super Bowl, after all.
FYI..both political parties have provisions in there by-laws as to what to do were a candidate to die or become disabled, (or withdraw) before the election..the national committe would meet via phone to pick a replacement...it is NOT automatically the VP candidate, though that would be the strongest presumption...we had discussed this at great length here a while back..under the idea that Hillary would try to engineer a way to move kerry out..becuase of the logistics involved in printing, mailing ballots, etc..throughout the country..the general consenus was that the LATEST the Dems could try to engineer a NJ type putsch would be mid-September..., and Labor Day is far more likely...remember...a great many voters choose absentee ballots...it sounds like a fund exercise, but logistically it's almost impossible... they'd lose far more than they might gain..
I expect to see some of the DNC "talking points" being highlighted in contrast to what the known truth is - the Bush folks are going to start to whittle away and then take off bigger and bigger chunks as the election nears. I fully expect that they also expect the Dims to go really nuts and are prepared to take advantage of that too.
How? They've been launching every salvo they can at Bush for 4 years. According to them, the only difference between Bush and Hitler is that Hitler cared about the environment. What on earth could they possibly say about Bush over the next few weeks that they haven't said already? What "independent" voter is going to emerge from a lead mine and say "Golly. I didn't realize there were questions about Bush's service in the National Guard, and the outing of Joe Wilson's wife is certainly troubling." If anyone has shot their wad too soon, it's Kerry and the partisan press.
My theory - Rove has been bought by THK and is really working for JFK, not GWB. Why else would he be doing such a sh#t job?
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It's a vanity, and there's not even mention of cheese, or Anna or a moose. I mean, why'd the poster take the time to type up the stuff . . . |
heh..no problem
One thing to remember about Bush and his gang...they are the master of the rope-a-dope. This is but another example. They will hold their powder 'basically dry' until the opportune time.
Now, I, like you, have no inside knowledge, just beliefs based on observation and certain facts. I think they know nobody is awake right now and they are going to use their 'powder' when it will actually help hit a target.
The target is all those sleeping voters that probably won't wake up until October, or maybe even November.
> The 527s can't go negative either- ...
Sure they can, well, the Dem 527s, anyway.
They just count on the FEC doing nothing about it until
after the election (on the hope that K&E win). They also
count on liberal judges being unwilling to issue
injunctions in the meantime.
the campaign itself won't spend any money, but abcbsnbcnnmsmusatoday-etc will be in full swing with every nightly newscast being kerry/edwards propaganda and every editorial will be a kerry/edwards ad, and every commie/leftist hollywood star will bash bush, and soros will be spending money like crazy to bash bush, and chiraq and schroeder and castro and lula and chavez and will bash bush, and the demon/commies allies, the al Qaeda, iranis and north korea will try to blow up americans and kill americans in iraq to bash bush...
folks, the stakes in this game are high indeed, higher than you or i can imagine...
JMO, but this is a very important point to remember. If you look ath the way the polls have gone since spring, Bush has been very steady while le Querrie has been all over the place. Love him or hate him, Americans know Bush. When the undecideds start to really get to know le Querrie his numbers will slip...and slip...and slip.
Le Querrie can't hide forever.
The Bush campaign has in excess of $60 million it HAS to, by law, spend before he is nominated - so there will be a blitz between now and the republican convention in September. After the nomination he's limited to the $75 million in public (your tax dollars at work) money.
I'm not sure that is true....my understanding was that was only binding if a candidate voluntarily limits contributions. My understanding was that Bush will not accept federal funds and the attendant strings.
Good post. When Edwards key line is 'lifted' from a Bush speech, they are really reaching.
Well I hear what you're saying, but that is exactly what they did in 2000 with the DUI charge, and it did resonate with some voters. Now possibly the press has used up all their stuff, but they are not beyond fabrication either. If it is disproved the day after the election the NYT can always print a correction on page B-9.
Understand, I'm just a nervous sort of CYA kind of guy. I actually think the Republicans are in an excellent position right now. The potential is amazing. But you never know...
I don't think there's gonna BE much (or even any) "convention bounce". Most of the poll data I see of late shows Bush continuing to hold even or actually gain somewhat against Kerry/Edwards (as a Louisiana aside---I say "BEWARE OF ANY POLITICIAN NAMED EDWARDS")---even in places like New Jersey, Michigan, and Minnesota. This in the very midst of all the Democrat convention hoopla.
I see a couple of posts about Bush should not be advertising now.
Sorry, but you are absolutely wrong.
See, the reason Kerry did not want to accept the nomination until the end of August was monetary. The moment the nomination is accepted, campaign finance limits kick in. That's why Kerry's campaign is going dark for a month, because they know they cannot afford to post advertisements that will spend money needed in October.
Bush, on the other hand, gets the luxury of September 2 to accept, thereby having an extra month to use his PRIMARY donations to spend for advertising. It is a use it or lose it proposition here, so now, in August, it is a perfect time to unleash with the rest of the money he is allowed to use for the primary.
Kerry's campaign is scared of this. They know things are going to turn against their candidate, which is why they need the bump coming out of the convention. Instead, all they are getting is a bump on the head for tripping over their own feet with fiascos like the flubbed pitch and the Oompa Loompa outfit that made Kerry look like a dork. Those are the stories coming out of the convention, and not what they needed.
Kerry has a backup, though. MoveOn, Media Fund, etc. can still put out advertisements. But I think the Republican 527s are about to unleash as well, that no one has paid attention to...the most damaging is already stealing Kerry's thunder, the Swift Boat Vets. Club for Growth, and other groups too have started in, in order to dent MoveOn's compatriots.
Start watching the ads, though. If around the middle of September, the ads surrounding MoveOn's cronies start to shift to attacks against local candidates, you know Kerry's dead in the water.
Exactly. When an opponent is self-destructing, stay out of the way and let it happen.
For Kerry, this will be a "Hold mah beer" moment.
They've BEEN fabricating for 4 years. The National Guard stuff is all fabrication. The Joe Wilson scandal is a complete fabrication. The notion that Abu Grahib extends to the top level of the Executive Branch is a pure liberal fantasy.
We just had a work of pure fiction make $100 million at the box office, whose central point is that Bush is the worst leader since Caligula. Yet Bush has gained ground in the polls and Kerry hasn't.
I would expect major GOP salvos after the DNC convention. One reason is, you don't know which John Kerry is going to show up for his acceptance speech. Let the Dems cement a platform, make their best case for Kerry and then blow it apart. But I can certainly understand the concern. I haven't felt confident in a GOP victory since Lee Atwater was alive.
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