Hard to believe. I hope so however because that would be very bad news for the challenger.
I've lived in The Garden State for 25 years. If Bush wins NJ, it would augur for a landslide of historic proportions. Sadly, I don't see that happening here.
Another example of how September 11th is the factor in this election.
LOL. If Kerry can't win NJ, he's toast....
Go, New Jersey! Make him fight hard, spend LOTS of time and dough there if he wants to keep the state blue...
NJ is close. While it was historically R, in recent decades it has been heavily D. It is close this time. I think Kerry will most likely still win, but he will have to fight for it. 9/11 hit close to home; about a third of the casualities were Garden Staters. And issues like security weigh heavily here...for example, Port Elizabeth.
The deep urban areas (NYC, Philly) are never in contention. But NJ is mostly a state of suburbs. At least some are reachable.
This state may well be in play. While it still seems improbable that Bush will win New Jersey, it is possible and the Bush campaign should not completely write it off as they would Rhode Island or Hawaii.
Is Bush visiting or spending any money there? That's the true measure of whether it's in play.
Can McGreevey have enraged enough Jersey voters to bring a quarter million people to the polls for Bush?
Perhaps, but not likely. Maybe if McGreevey aggressively campaigned for Kerry it might happen. If it snowed heavily in Trenton, Newark and Camden on election day it might happen too.
Oh my. Kerry +2 in NJ.
I've been saying this for months..President Bush has a real chance in NJ and if he wins the state, the election is probably over.
New Jersey is the second wealthiest state in the nation (per capita income) and in the top four for household income. Three of the richest counties in the entire United States are in New Jersey. There is a lot of Republican territory here and the only reason the state polls democrat is because of the heavily populated urban areas and some counties (e.g Monmouth) that have a large number of still liberal NYC transplants. Now some of those liberal ex-NYC'ers and other New Jerseyans saw their friends and neighbors brutally murdered on 911 and it has had an effect. It is only because of the honor and tremendous restraint of most New Jerseyans that portions of Paterson and Jersey City were not burned to the ground on 912. That having been said however, security and fighting terror are serious issues here and I think most New Jerseyan's want a leader who says what he means and means what he says instead of a panderer. Many see George Bush as a strong leader and are willing to keep him as captain on our ship of state.
Unfortunately it seems like the Pres' team in NJ is dragging its feet and I know several people who contacted to volunteer and have been told there is no place for them to go....they are frustrated.
I've been predicting that NJ is the "longshot" state for Bush. With an unpopular Dem governor, its one to watch.
I think it will be somewhat closer than that in Jersey this time thanks to 9/11, but I just can't realistically see it happening.
The Republican "investment" in New Jersey will consist of two freebies ... advertizing in the Philadelphia market (because Pennsylvania is in play) which will spill over to southern New Jersey, and the convention in New York City which will spill over to northern New Jersey. In terms of appearances, I expect Rudy and other surrogates will make some appearances. As to whether Bush or Cheney will following the convention, I kind of doubt it. I think the GOP will treat New Jersey as a low-cost opportunity. If either Bush or Cheney do make appearances in New Jersey, it will be because the state is still in play. The problem with this, is that it might energize the Democrats. The secret to the sudden GOP popularity in New Jersey is the corruption in the McGreedy state government. The people of the state are disheartened, and turn-out could be low among Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents. An unriled-up, disheartened opposition may be the key to a surprise Bush pick-up on election day. Of course, this information must be kept from secret from the Democrats who are still trying to figure out how to take North Carolina away from us.
At this point in 1980 nobody thought New York would go to Reagan. We were all surprised that West Virginia, one of only six states Carter won in 1980, went for Dubya last time. It's still very early in the campaign season. Anything from a narrow Kerry victory to a substantial Bush victory is still plausible.
We can safely assume of course that DC and Mass are safe for Kerry!
Second, Bush and Kerry will be advertizing heavily in the Philadelphia market, which covers the lower half of New Jersey, too. If Bush's commercials are effective, it could really help Bush in NJ.
Thank you McGreedy for being so corrupt.
I am originally a Jersey girl and have visited there twice in the past month. One thing that strikes me as I drive on 80, GSP and the Turnpike is the flags on overpasses and especially all the stickers on cars that are flags or say "God Bless America" or "united We Stand" - you have to believe these people are voting for W. Plus, I didn't see ONE Kerry sticker during either of my trips, and I was in Middlesex County most of the time.
I listen to the required NJ 101.5 and they don't seem to like Kerry much, and they are the designated "New Jersey station" and when I lived there I really felt that they helped Whitman win in the 80's. As a matter of fact, the NJ 101.5 News Director went on the work as Whitman's Communications Director (or some other integral part of her staff.)
I truly beleive W has a chance in NJ. Oh, and when I was there I passed out my Bush-Cheney stickers to my family!