Is Bush visiting or spending any money there? That's the true measure of whether it's in play.
Bush came in 2000. I tried to get into the event at FDU, but more than twice as many people came as the FDU staff anticipated, so I was turned away.
I would think McGreevey's troubles are hurting Kerry in NJ. And there were NJ residents from as far south as Trenton killed on 9/11, so it affected much of the state. However, NJ is also where the Democrats perfected the "knock and drag" program for turning out the black vote, and where they distrbuted flyers in 2000 with a Photoshopped picture of Bush standing in front of a Confederate flag. If it is a neck and neck race in the polls, Kerry will win due to the black turnout effort and vote fraud.
Commercials are running here. Cheney raised quite a bit of money at a fundraiser here a few weeks ago and I know Bush has been active with the faith based initiative in parts of NJ.