Posted on 07/27/2004 12:23:14 PM PDT by abu afak
U.S. Jews, Arabs in vote flip-flop? April 19, 2004
By Ann McFeatters, Post-Gazette National Bureau
WASHINGTON -- In the 2000 presidential election, a majority of Jewish voters pulled the Democratic lever, and a majority of Arab Americans voted Republican. In 2004, the opposite could occur.
In the Nov. 2 election, which most experts expect to be close, such a seismic shift in voting patterns has political consultants for both candidates biting their nails.
This year many Jewish voters are leaning toward re-electing President Bush, who just broke with 35 years of U.S. policies to endorse a plan for Israel to withdraw from Gaza but maintain disputed Jewish settlements in territory in the West Bank claimed by Palestinians. Bush also rejected the Palestinians "right of return" to disputed territory where they lived before 1949.
Meantime, a poll of Arab Americans shows they are disappointed with Bush and increasingly more interested in John F. Kerry.
Republicans see an opening to snare Jewish voters and are pursuing it aggressively. In 2000, Bush got about 19 percent of the Jewish vote, and the Bush-Cheney campaign is determined to raise that significantly.
Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., who is spearheading the effort in the Senate to get more Jewish votes for Republicans, said on Friday there is "no question" that Jewish voters are in play this year. "I got over 40 percent of Jewish voters in Pennsylvania in 2000. Nobody before then would have believed that would be possible,'' he said.
"The president is focusing on this group as a swing vote, and I think the president will do exceptionally well [with Jewish voters]. This president has been singularly at the side of our closest ally in the Mideast [Israel]. After the events of 9/11, not just Jewish people but all Americans have a better perspective on what terrorism does,'' Santorum said. But Kerry is determined to hold onto the Democrats' base.
When Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon came to the White House this past week to stand beside Bush as he made his historic and controversial announcement, the Kerry campaign asked the Israeli Embassy for a private meeting between Sharon and Kerry. The embassy refused, saying the prime minister's visit was too short. On Friday, the Israeli Embassy said Kerry would be invited to Israel and that Sharon would meet with Kerry the next time he is in Washington.
Kerry carefully did not criticize Bush's agreement with Sharon on maintaining settlements in Palestinian territory and not permitting Palestinian refugees in the area. "I think that could be a positive step,'' he said. "What's important obviously is the security of the state of Israel, and that's what the prime minister and the president, I think, are trying to address.''
Relations between Kerry and Jewish voters have been strained for several reasons. Kerry seemed to many Jews in the United States to be taking an anti-Israel position when he said that Israeli plans for a security fence that could keep Palestinians from their jobs were a "barrier to peace.'' Speaking to Arab Americans in Dearborn, Mich., last October, Kerry said Israel's security fence was "provocative and counterproductive."
Then there was the news, announced by the Boston Globe, that two of Kerry's relatives were Jewish and died in the Holocaust. Why, some Jews wondered, had it taken a newspaper to uncover this? Kerry is a Catholic.
Alarmed by the turn of events in a constituency long thought to be solidly Democratic, the Kerry camp arranged for Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., to campaign with Kerry in Florida this week.
Lieberman is an observant Jew who earlier ran against Kerry for the Democratic presidential nomination and was Al Gore's running mate in 2000 -- the first Jew to be on a major party ticket. Florida, the state that narrowly delivered the White House to Bush after the Supreme Court intervened, will be his first joint campaign appearance with Kerry. Jews have traditionally been important to the Democratic Party because of their high turnout in elections -- as much as 80 percent compared with 50 percent or less nationwide. They also help raise a lot of money for candidates and often live in key battleground states.
"If you swing the Jewish vote 10 percent in Ohio, that could give you Ohio," Nathan Diament, who lobbies for issues important to Orthodox Judaism, told The Washington Post.
Democrats are worried that if Jewish voters start holding major fund-raisers for Bush, the dent in Kerry's funding could be substantial. While Democrats have held on to many Jewish voters by liberal stands on such sensitive issues as environmental protection and abortion, Israel is a chord that resonates with observant Jews regardless of other issues.
Senate Democrats recently met with about 80 Jewish interest groups to stress that they are pro-Israel and that Bush has not cornered the market in providing support for Israel. Egypt and Israel still get the lion's share of American foreign aid, a legacy of the Camp David accords.
Arab Americans helped elect Bush in 2000. He won 45 percent of Arab American votes nationwide, while Al Gore won only 38 percent and Ralph Nader, 13 percent. In the four battleground states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida, Bush did even better, winning 46 percent of Arab American votes, vs. 29 percent for Gore and 13 percent for Nader.
After the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Arabs rallied around Bush even more fervently, horrified at what had happened and grateful for the president's insistence that the war on terror was not a war against Muslims.
But since then relations have soured. Bush's policies on the Israel-Palestinian situation have an 80 percent disapproval rating in the Arab-American community. In addition, 63 percent of Arab Americans express disapproval for restriction of civil liberties on immigrants,
A recent poll by the Arab American Institute done by independent pollster John Zogby found that if the election were being held now, Kerry would get 54 percent of the Arab Americans in the key states of Michigan, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. That compares with only 30 percent for Bush. If Nader, a Lebanese American, is a viable national candidate, he would get 26 percent, Kerry would get 40 percent and Bush would get 25 percent..."
(Excerpt) Read more at post-gazette.com ...
Bush is the Arab's best chance for peace in the middle east, and an end to idiocy. They are crazy not to vote for him.
Jews will never vote for Bush. They are terrified of Christians, and are expecting to be herded into concentration camps by Ashcroft at any moment.
Yes, and he is also the best friend that Israel has EVER had in the White House but I won't hold my breath waiting for too many Jews other than Hasidics to vote for him. It always amazes me but since I work in NY I'm not surprised. 95 of Jews I have met are reflexively left and will not consider voting for a Republican.
Prepare to be surprised, Pete98.
Jews voted for Ronald Reagan in 1984 in large numbers and for George H.W. Bush in 1988 in even larger numbers.
President Bush 41, shall we say, mishandled his Jewish support and as a result Jewish voters abandoned the Republican Party en masse. However, there is precedent for a Jewish vote of more than 30% for the Republican Presidential candidate twice in the last 20 years.
I think this will be the third, and boldly predict that Jewish support will fall between 35 and 40 percent.
By the way, the Presbyterians (PCUSA) becoming the first mainstream Christian church to vote for divestment from US companies doing business with Israel should be played up among liberal Jews. Maybe they'll take a fresh look at their sincere evangelical supporters instead of their fair-weather kumbaya friends.
Tkathy... you're probably right with respect some more traditional and older Liberal Jews... even most.
But Younger jews are generally more Conservative, and will vote for bush.
While Jews voted 80-20 Against Bush in the last election... Under 30 year old Jews, voted 60-40 FOR BUSH.
(a previous discussion here)
That demographic may be extended (to under 35) in this year.
Kerry will probably win the overall Jewish vote .. but Bush will get more money and more votes in some swing states from Jews this year.
The GOP hoping to approach the Reagan Jewish vote of app 40%
But the action further solidified Arab-American anger at Bush. Zogby told reporters he is "baffled" as to what Bush gained politically.
He just can't believe that some people make decisions based on what is best for the country...
Muslim Americans should vote for Nader or the Green Party. The Dems are for everything their religion tells them not to do. I will be very angry if the American Jewish vote does not go to Bush. Because of his support for Israel, he lost the Arab vote.
Because of some misconceptions in the past, it is possible that some Jews are afraid of Christians, but most Christians respect Jews (and sometimes, even love Jews) because the Bible, which the Christians read and respect (and even love), is a book that talks so much about the people of Israel and God's blessings and promises for them. After all, all the prophets, Jesus and all the first christian disciples were Jews! I believe that sincere Christians are the best friends of the Jews. This is why it is so easy for many Republicans to be Pro-Israel: Christians and Jews share the same Judeo-Christian values.
Well, excuse me, look where you are! I'm in San Antonio, and I can tell you that a LOT more than 5% of Jews here will be voting to re-elect Bush. IMHO, there will be a substantial MAJORITY of Orthodox Jews (at least here), roughly 1/3 of (religiously) Conservative Jews and roughly 10% of Reform and non-affiliated Jews voting for Bush. Overall, I suspect that Bush will get about 1/4-1/3 of the Jewish vote.
BTW, I used to live in NJ and work in NYC. I wised up and escaped from the Peoples' Republics as soon as I could. It is SOOO refreshing to breath the air in a free state.
I live in CT so it's not as bad as actually living in the belly of the beast but I know what you mean!
Many people from an Arab or Muslim background who are American Citizens today really appreciate the American Values and Freedom. This is why they are living here in the USA (instead of living in a Muslim country) and why they are proud American Citizens. Many of these American Voters have realized that George W. Bush is the best president that America can have. They consider that George W. Bush is good for them, he is good for America, and he is good for bringing peace in the rest of the world.
Arab American Voters Overwhelmingly Back Kerry
By Rolando Garcia
Reuters.com
July 15, 2004
http://www.aaiusa.org/news/aainews071504.htm
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Concern about civil liberties and the war in Iraq have pushed President Bush's already low support among Arab-American voters in key battleground states even lower, a survey showed on Thursday.
In a poll of Arab-American voters in the key states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida only 24 percent said they would vote for Bush, a dip from 30 percent in April, while 51 percent supported Democratic nominee John Kerry.
In the poll, conducted between July 9 and 11, 13 percent supported independent candidate Ralph Nader, who is of Lebanese descent.
"Maybe if Bush said 'I'm sorry' and fired (Attorney General John) Ashcroft and (Vice President Dick) Cheney, that might make a difference," said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, which commissioned the poll.
Ashcroft has been targeted by rights groups for security measures introduced since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, some of which have impacted Arab-Americans, and Cheney is criticized by opponents for unwavering support for invading Iraq.
Bush narrowly won the Arab-American vote in 2000, but 69 percent in the latest poll said Bush did not deserve to be re-elected, including 30 percent of those who identified themselves as Republicans.
Although they comprise only about one percent of the national electorate, the 500,000 Arab-Americans expected to vote in these four swing states could make the difference in a close race, especially in Michigan where they make up 5 percent of the overall electorate.
Bush spokesman Scott Stanzel said the campaign was actively courting Arab-Americans and that Bush's support for an independent Palestinian state and his promotion of democracy in the Middle East would resonate with those voters.
Topping the concerns of those polled were the economy, national security and health care, but nearly two-thirds also ranked Iraq and civil liberties as "very important" issues.
The Patriot Act, an anti-terrorism law critics say threatens Americans' civil liberties, and the war in Iraq are the main factors souring Arab-Americans on Bush, said Zogby, who is also a member of the Democratic National Committee.
More than half of respondents supporting Kerry said their main reason was dislike of Bush, rather than support for Kerry's policies.
The poll was conducted by Zogby International, which is owned by John Zogby, brother of James. It had a margin of error of 4.5 percent.
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