so it all comes down to ohio, missouri, florida and nevada. if we lose any of those, it's over.
this is not going to be easy.
Easy now.
I think Bush has better that a 13% chance of winning New Jersey. Better that a 40% chance of winning Wisconsin or New Mexico. and better than a 35% chance of winning PA.
Bush can win michigan if the christians come out to vote and if Kerry can't enthuse the inner city black males. See Engler.
Most recent poll shows Bush up in every one of those states, plus Wisconsin and Iowa, which he did NOT carry in 2000.
New Hampshire won't support Kerry, Maine may not either..at least the electoral vote in the North---CD 2. Educate the folks in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania about the Kerry/Edwards Boy Scout vote and those states will soon be light blue.