[KJacob]

Easy now.
I think Bush has better that a 13% chance of winning New Jersey. Better that a 40% chance of winning Wisconsin or New Mexico. and better than a 35% chance of winning PA.

[ConservativeDude]

sure. i noticed those also. those are the places where we go on offense (ie, we might win them but don't have to have them). at least wisconsin and PA, i don't know about new jersey....

the flip side of this is that the dems have the same problem...if they drop the ball on any state they should lock up, we win. such is the stakes of the game when the parties are at rough parity.

looks like we are going to take the home state of the D VP nominee again, then?

[Iron Eagle]

Bush has a ZERO chance of winning my old home state, New Jersey. As a former political operator there, I can tell you that on National or state-wide elections, the GOP is done there.

No matter what whispers you here, the Campaign will not be spending any money there.

Here are some of the interest groups working against bush in Jersey:

Unions -- particularly NJEA
Minority groups, black and Hispanic. (Which are huge in NJ)
Now and pro-abortion groups
Soccer Moms.
Liberal Jewish voters.
Anti-gun voters

I predict Bush will lose new Jersey by 12-14 points.