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Kerry 'Will Have It Both Ways, Oppo Research: An old rival's recipe for a GOP win this fall
Newsweek ^ | July 25, 2004 | William F. Weld

Posted on 07/25/2004 7:31:05 AM PDT by dano1

I never thought I'd lose to John Kerry in 1996. Although Kerry was the incumbent senator and had been in public life longer than I had, his style seemed to me out of touch with the voters. In fact, Kerry succeeded in making me—often subjected to the charge of being patrician—look like a lunch-pail Democrat: of the people as well as for the people. A lunch-pail Democrat is the best thing you can look like in Massachusetts, and I had received 71 percent of the vote in my re-election campaign for governor just two years earlier. I believed I was set to knock off a prominent Democratic incumbent.

It didn't quite work out that way.

The race was neck and neck from the day I announced until late October 1996. We both had statewide favorability ratings of more than 70 percent, and in the head-to-head, we were each stuck at slightly more than 40 percent. We beat our heads against the wall trying to break the race open, but nothing seemed to work.

Then, a week before the election, Kerry opened up a 10-point lead in our overnight tracking polls, and stayed there. Senator Kerry won by eight percentage points—not even a particularly close race, in the end.

What happened? I ran against John Kerry, but John Kerry chose not to run against Bill Weld. After Bob Shrum joined his campaign, Kerry ran against Newt Gingrich, Jesse Helms and Bob Dole—in Massachusetts, a shrewd move. It also didn't hurt him that Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole in Massachusetts by 33 percentage points in November.

This year, with Bob Shrum again onboard, John Kerry will again run a shrewd campaign. He will have it both ways. As he moves to the center, he will run not against the Iraq war, but against this Iraq war. He'll attack, but he will always be careful to wave the flag as he does so. He will lament positions of the Christian right, but attend church without fail. He will stand for gun control, but remind voters—in appropriate states—that he is a bird hunter. He will, in other words, be pro-military—and against this war; pro-religion—and against the "extremists"; pro-gun control—and pro-guns. He will run knowing that Americans like to be for, as well as against, things.

Kerry will continue to emphasize his Vietnam War record, and will reinforce that message by traveling constantly in the company of fellow veterans in the closing weeks of the campaign. Shrum will have Kerry surrogates try to bait Bush surrogates into attacking Senator Kerry's military record—how purple was that purple heart, etc.—and then pounce on the attack with rallies and 30-second spots of outraged men and women in uniform and their families. He will seek to have the Bush campaign be against. Kerry will be for.

With this said, in my view, President Bush will prevail. While Senator Kerry is highly articulate, his appeal is intellectual, not emotional. I remember the late congressman Joe Moakley telling me, after the 1996 election, that he became so frustrated in trying to line up blue-collar union support for Kerry against me that he once blurted out, "Chrissakes, Charlie, I'm not asking you to have a beer with the guy!"

(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bobshrum; kerry; kerrystrategy; weld
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1 posted on 07/25/2004 7:31:08 AM PDT by dano1
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To: dano1
Let us not forget that Shrum also helped organize the Wellstone Funerally.

I think that there are some things coming that should mute all this "Vietnam hero" stuff. And I definitely think that Kerrey cannot make himself over into a "man of the people."

Weld is giving us some interesting hints into how Kerry campaigns, though. I am going to pay attention to see how many of these tactics surface in the next month.

2 posted on 07/25/2004 7:40:00 AM PDT by Miss Marple
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To: Miss Marple

Im just hoping the media trots Pat Cadell for us. He's ruthless when it comes to attacking his own party.


3 posted on 07/25/2004 7:42:24 AM PDT by cripplecreek (John kerry is unbalanced)
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Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

To: Hunger4Victory

Kerrry is one of the most liberal politicians in Washington. His opposition to the Second Amendment is a matter of record, as is his opposition to strong a defense for our nation.

On the other hand, not even the sneering left wing partisans in the "main stream" media can call Bush a conservative and keep a straight face.


5 posted on 07/25/2004 7:46:43 AM PDT by BenLurkin ("A republic, if we can revive it")
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To: dano1
With all due respect, this isn't 1996, and it is not a Massachusetts Senate race.

Mr. Kerry has too much baggage for his "piper cub" to get off the ground.

Instead of running against Newt Gingrich, Jesse Helms and Bob Dole, he is defending against the Joe Wilsons, Sandy Bergers, and Michael Moores.

Here's to a "crash landing"!

6 posted on 07/25/2004 7:47:49 AM PDT by G.Mason (A war mongering, red white and blue, military industrial complex, Al Qaeda incinerating American.)
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To: Hunger4Victory
You are such an obvious troll...

5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires

7 posted on 07/25/2004 7:48:06 AM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Hunger4Victory
Kerry sounds sort of normal. I own a shotgun and a rifle that I use to hunt, but I don't own an Uzi or an Ak-47. kerry is running in the middle and Bush is running on the right. Thats not a good thing. Bush needs to get back in the middle lane and push Kerry left, like he did to Al Gore in 2000.

John Kerry voted to ban .30-30 ammo.

8 posted on 07/25/2004 7:48:14 AM PDT by Dan from Michigan ("If you want a little peace, sometimes you gotta fight" - Sammy Hagar)
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To: Hunger4Victory

The 2nd Amendment isn't about hunting.

Go away.


9 posted on 07/25/2004 7:50:10 AM PDT by Tijeras_Slim (Be a Dollar a Day FReeper, and SMILE when you get your Mastercard bill!)
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To: Dan from Michigan
The troll doesn't even know 30-30 ammo. No way she owns a shotgun and a rifle, either. That was a pure "talking point" post, straight from the DNC fax machine.

5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires

10 posted on 07/25/2004 7:50:58 AM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Hunger4Victory
"Kerry sounds sort of normal. I own a shotgun and a rifle that I use to hunt, but I don't own an Uzi or an Ak-47. kerry is running in the middle and Bush is running on the right. Thats not a good thing. Bush needs to get back in the middle lane and push Kerry left, like he did to Al Gore in 2000."

Karl Rove and the White House Re-Election Committee are just dying to hear from you.

11 posted on 07/25/2004 7:54:00 AM PDT by G.Mason (A war mongering, red white and blue, military industrial complex, Al Qaeda incinerating American.)
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To: Dan from Michigan; Southack

I don't think our little friend will be with us for long. He's even more DU-ish on some other threads.


12 posted on 07/25/2004 7:57:27 AM PDT by Tijeras_Slim (Be a Dollar a Day FReeper, and SMILE when you get your Mastercard bill!)
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To: Southack

And it was an awesome example of what the Weld article was saying about Kerry.


13 posted on 07/25/2004 7:57:45 AM PDT by ShandaLear (John actually picked John before he picked John.)
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To: All

Banned!


14 posted on 07/25/2004 7:58:45 AM PDT by Tijeras_Slim (Be a Dollar a Day FReeper, and SMILE when you get your Mastercard bill!)
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To: dano1
Bill Weld a klintoon wannabe.
15 posted on 07/25/2004 7:58:47 AM PDT by dts32041 (Gen Karpinski A bullet, A Gun, a Room, her only honorable solution (MP Officer Not))
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To: Miss Marple

Kerry should not be allowed to confuse the public about who he really is. He voted for the war in Iraq, then against funding the troops. He has extreme views on abortion, saying he believes life begins at conception, and then that he would only appoint pro-abortion judges to the bench. He says he will offer U.S. citizenship to illegal aliens living in the U.S., which will only attract more and more illegal entry into this country. His pro-litigation, trial lawyer position is a job-killer. He is one of the most liberal Senators and had no significant legislative accomplishments in his many years in the Senate. All of this stuff needs to be brought to light in a factual but respectful way, IMHO, and Kerry should not be allowed to be packaged and sold like a can of soda.


16 posted on 07/25/2004 7:58:52 AM PDT by dano1
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To: Tijeras_Slim
You mean, the Second Amendment isn't about hunting animals
17 posted on 07/25/2004 8:05:38 AM PDT by Arthur McGowan
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To: Arthur McGowan

Indeed.


18 posted on 07/25/2004 8:07:25 AM PDT by Tijeras_Slim (Be a Dollar a Day FReeper, and SMILE when you get your Mastercard bill!)
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To: Dan from Michigan
"John Kerry voted to ban .30-30 ammo."

...This year.

He voted to ban .30-30 ammo, this year.

This year!

5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires

19 posted on 07/25/2004 8:09:43 AM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: ShandaLear
"And it was an awesome example of what the Weld article was saying about Kerry."

Good catch. The troll did indeed emulate precisely what Governor Weld predicted in his article.

Perhaps the Dems have become predictable.

5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires

20 posted on 07/25/2004 8:11:47 AM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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